As of July 2025, Despite How Bad Trump and Republicans Are, Democrats look like they will be LOSING Seats in the Upcoming Mid-Terms

[Brack]

Unless something extraordinary happens, the Democrats will take back the House during the 2026 mid-term elections. Higher voter turnout now favors Republicans while lower voter turnout now favors Democrats. Voter turnout was very high within nearly all of the swing states during the 2024 Presidential election. In 2026, voter turnout isn't going to be as high as it was in 2024. There won't be as many MAGA Republicans voting during the 2026 mid-term elections mainly due to Trump not being on the ballot.

 

[JoeB131]

Unless something extraordinary happens, the Democrats will take back the House during the 2026 mid-term elections. Higher voter turnout now favors Republicans while lower voter turnout now favors Democrats. Voter turnout was very high within nearly all of the swing states during the 2024 Presidential election. In 2026, voter turnout isn't going to be as high as it was in 2024. There won't be as many MAGA Republicans voting during the 2026 mid-term elections mainly due to Trump not being on the ballot.

I'm not sure where you get any of that.

The problem is that the Democrats are polling significantly lower than the Republicans (both are polling relatively low).

But here's the bigger problem. In 2024, 96.6% of House incumbents who sought re-election won.

In 2022, that number was 93.2%, marking the first election following redistricting.

In 2020, that number was 94.7.

Even in the "Blue Wave" election of 2018, that number was 91%

it goes back to the old adage - "Congress sucks, but my Congressman is a pretty good guy!"

Now, if we slip into a recession or Trump manages to screw things up royally, the Democrats might have a chance of retaking the House.

And then what? It didn't do them much good when they retook it in 2018, did it?

 

[Rogue Valley]

No matter the day, Donald Trump captures the news cycle.

Granted, he accomplishes this by being the absolute worst president ever, but the public sees and hears Trump every day. He has very good media acumen and skills.

Democrats have no comparable time-on-camera frontman to deliver their messaging.

Democrat messaging has remained roughly the same since LBJ. Ergo, stagnant.

 

[reinaert]

No matter the day, Donald Trump captures the news cycle.

Granted, he accomplishes this by being the absolute worst president ever, but the public sees and hears Trump every day. He has very good media acumen and skills.

Democrats have no comparable time-on-camera frontman to deliver their messaging.

The DNC kneecaps any who show up.

 

[Brack]

I'm not sure where you get any of that.

The problem is that the Democrats are polling significantly lower than the Republicans (both are polling relatively low).

Yes, Democrats are polling low now, but the mid-term elections are still over a year away. I remember when Republicans were polling very badly during part of 2013, but they ended up doing well during the 2014 mid-term elections.

Turnout during the 2026 mid-term elections is going to be more in line with the turnout during the 2022 mid-term elections than with the turnout of the 2024 Presidential election. During 2022, polling was suggesting that Dr. Oz was going to win the PA Senate race while Kari Lake was going to win the AZ Governor's race. But that didn't happen in 2022.

A lot of MAGA folks who came out to vote for Trump in 2024 aren't going to come out to vote during 2026 mainly due to Trump not going to be on the ballot next year.