• Please read the Announcement concerning missing posts from 10/8/25-10/15/25.
  • This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

AMD, Nvidia, Oracle and OpenAI's circular money scam

Dans La Lune

Do you read Sutter Cane?
DP Veteran
Joined
Aug 30, 2019
Messages
16,261
Reaction score
11,107
Location
Hobbs End
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Socialist
So... how you gonna pay for it? By creating a circular money scam. Seems like it should be illegal. Anyways, happy investing! Bubbles never pop.

OpenAI has entered into a series of massive, interconnected deals with AMD, Nvidia, and Oracle that critics describe as a "circular financing" mechanism, where companies are effectively funding each other to inflate market valuations and create the illusion of robust demand for AI infrastructure. These arrangements, which involve OpenAI committing to spend over $1 trillion on computing power, have led to significant stock price increases for the involved companies, but raise concerns about an unsustainable bubble, drawing comparisons to the dot-com era.

How the Circular System Works​

The core mechanism involves companies acting as each other's investors, customers, and suppliers in a closed loop:

  • Nvidia invests in OpenAI: Nvidia committed up to $100 billion in equity investment into OpenAI. OpenAI then uses this capital to purchase Nvidia's H100 and future-generation AI chips.
  • AMD grants equity for future chip purchases: AMD agreed to supply OpenAI with up to 6 gigawatts of AI chips starting in 2026. In return, OpenAI received warrants to buy up to 10% of AMD at just one cent per share. If AMD's stock rises (it jumped 24% after the announcement), OpenAI can sell these shares to fund further chip purchases, creating a self-sustaining cycle.
  • Oracle builds data centers for OpenAI: Oracle signed a $300 billion deal to build and operate data centers (Project Stargate) specifically for OpenAI. Oracle funds this by purchasing Nvidia chips, which OpenAI then uses.
  • Money flows in a circle: Nvidia’s investment → OpenAI buys Nvidia chips → OpenAI uses Oracle cloud → Oracle buys Nvidia chips → Nvidia books revenue → stock rises → enables more investment.

 
Yes, it's a funding circle that drives AI infrastructure growth. But the theory is ordinary non-tech companies are going to be using (and paying for) AI to lower costs. Not only are people losing jobs to AI but AI can improve and streamline a companies operations, cut waste, and improve their supply chain/distribution. Clearly it's a game changer... but there's a danger too.
 
Yes, it's a funding circle that drives AI infrastructure growth. But the theory is ordinary non-tech companies are going to be using (and paying for) AI to lower costs. Not only are people losing jobs to AI but AI can improve and streamline a companies operations, cut waste, and improve their supply chain/distribution. Clearly it's a game changer... but there's a danger too.

AI is useful for gathering information and coding, but it would take a leap in technology for it to be a worker replacement except around the edges of industries. Basically it replaces entry-level people. The rest is largely AI slop that drains the resources of entire cities.

This particular issue is about how AI and related tech companies are creating money out of pure speculation, and in a closed loop. There's no underlying value. It's just circle designed to hoodwink investors. It doesn't parallel the Dot.Com bubble. It is more akin to the 1929 bubble, whereby people would pay for stock by taking bank loans, and paying the loans down with stock value.

Don't worry, this bubble is only propping up the entire American economy. Cheers!
 
AI is useful for gathering information and coding, but it would take a leap in technology for it to be a worker replacement except around the edges of industries. Basically it replaces entry-level people. The rest is largely AI slop that drains the resources of entire cities.

This particular issue is about how AI and related tech companies are creating money out of pure speculation, and in a closed loop. There's no underlying value. It's just circle designed to hoodwink investors. It doesn't parallel the Dot.Com bubble. It is more akin to the 1929 bubble, whereby people would pay for stock by taking bank loans, and paying the loans down with stock value.

Don't worry, this bubble is only propping up the entire American economy. Cheers!
The essence of these 'bubbles' never change. Hedge funds, wealthy private investors, and corporate investors put huge amounts of money at great risk to try to build out something great. Greedy small investors and everyday people throw their money in not really understanding what they're investing in. Eventually we get to the point where we've collectively put more in than we're ever getting back out and then it all goes crashing down. At this point we really don't know how this will play out. I see AI as the real deal which has almost unlimited upside potential but there's also a huge social risk.
 
It's going to be very interesting to see what happens here.

I mean every metric you look at, makes it seem like a bubble, but yet, it's all based on belief, the kind of technology they are creating, is going to have utility in the future, no doubt about it, but the money vs the expected return vs the future upkeep, upgrade requirement costs are absurd.

I don't see how this can't be a bubble given the figures we're talking about and the mountain of value it has to provide that looks unlikely.

I mean, this shakes out in one of two ways:

1. Massive bubble, stock market crash, few winners eventually find the correct use case for the tech, a la Dot Com Bubble.

2. It does everything it's supposed to do and more, massive unemployment, tech dystopia, we're all ****ed, no one left to buy anything cause no one has money, everyone loses, tech imperators rule over the ashes because... why?
 
I happen to own a decent amount of Nvidia....and have for 3+ years

My take is....if you dont like the way the executives of these companies are operating, either sell your shares....or dont invest in them

None of these companies are penny stocks....none are the types of companies that the meme crowd usually get involved with.....

The stock market is and always has been risky....either you are willing to accept the risks, or you arent....

Now if you really want to see a few companies where people are at risk.....

Take a look at the quantum computing stocks, and what they have been doing for the last few months....these the meme crowd have been taking on a ride to the moon.....most have very few sales, and none have any earnings.....and the experts say we are a minimum of 4-6 years away from quantum computing becoming a thing
 
I happen to own a decent amount of Nvidia....and have for 3+ years

My take is....if you dont like the way the executives of these companies are operating, either sell your shares....or dont invest in them

None of these companies are penny stocks....none are the types of companies that the meme crowd usually get involved with.....

The stock market is and always has been risky....either you are willing to accept the risks, or you arent....

Now if you really want to see a few companies where people are at risk.....

Take a look at the quantum computing stocks, and what they have been doing for the last few months....these the meme crowd have been taking on a ride to the moon.....most have very few sales, and none have any earnings.....and the experts say we are a minimum of 4-6 years away from quantum computing becoming a thing
Other than your humble brag about owning NVDA, what's your point? You didn't address the OP at all.
 
The essence of these 'bubbles' never change. Hedge funds, wealthy private investors, and corporate investors put huge amounts of money at great risk to try to build out something great. Greedy small investors and everyday people throw their money in not really understanding what they're investing in. Eventually we get to the point where we've collectively put more in than we're ever getting back out and then it all goes crashing down. At this point we really don't know how this will play out. I see AI as the real deal which has almost unlimited upside potential but there's also a huge social risk.

Seems like a problem with Capitalism.

AI is the real deal in the sense that the Internet was the real deal. After the bust, it plateaued and became what currently is. While AI has definite uses, the average person uses it to summarize emails and create social media avatars. That's it. Governments use it to crack down on dissent and predict when terrorists will be at home with their families, so it can drone strike them collectively. I'm not adverse to AI, but we need to be clear eyed that it's little more than a novelty for the average person in its current state, while also being a tool for mass government surveillance. Not to mention its massive energy drain and is causing economy calamity even outside of the impending bubble.
 
So... how you gonna pay for it? By creating a circular money scam. Seems like it should be illegal. Anyways, happy investing! Bubbles never pop.



Well, I'm not a money whiz, but I don't see the problem.

Nvidia produces and sells chips. AMD produces and sells chips. Oracle builds and operates the data centers. OpenAI uses everything to do its work.

Everyone makes money.

Unless OpenAI goes bust, there's no bubble bursting. If another AI comes along and kicks OpenAI to the curb, well...that's the way it goes sometimes. All of these companies know the risks.
 
Well, I'm not a money whiz, but I don't see the problem.

Nvidia produces and sells chips. AMD produces and sells chips. Oracle builds and operates the data centers. OpenAI uses everything to do its work.

Everyone makes money.

Unless OpenAI goes bust, there's no bubble bursting. If another AI comes along and kicks OpenAI to the curb, well...that's the way it goes sometimes. All of these companies know the risks.


  • AMD issued warrants allowing OpenAI to buy shares at $0.01 each, a nominal price.
  • The vesting of these warrants is tied to milestones, including OpenAI’s purchase of AMD hardware.
  • As OpenAI buys chips, it earns more warrants, increasing its equity stake.
  • Analysts like Timothy Arcuri of UBS suggest OpenAI will likely sell the AMD stock as it vests to fund its chip purchases—effectively using AMD’s own stock to pay for AMD’s products.

Is This a Circular Deal?​

Yes, this deal fits the definition of a circular deal, where investment and purchasing flows move in a loop between interconnected companies.
Examples from the AI ecosystem:

  • Nvidia invests $100B in OpenAI → OpenAI buys Nvidia-powered cloud services from Oracle → Oracle buys Nvidia chips → Nvidia profits fund further investments.
  • AMD gives OpenAI stock → OpenAI uses that stock to pay for AMD chips → AMD gains revenue and market validation.
As described by analysts, this creates a self-reinforcing cycle that may inflate growth metrics without corresponding real-world demand.

Concerns About Stock Manipulation​

While not illegal per se, the deal has raised concerns about market manipulation and artificial valuation inflation:

  • Stock price surge: AMD’s shares jumped over 30% after the announcement, despite no immediate cash inflow.
  • Dilution risk: Issuing 160 million new shares dilutes existing shareholders.
  • Circular validation: The deal boosts AMD’s revenue projections based on a customer (OpenAI) that is partly funded by AMD’s own stock.
  • Critics liken it to vendor financing schemes from the dot-com bubble, where companies booked revenue from customers who paid in stock.


giphy.gif
 
AI is useful for gathering information and coding, but it would take a leap in technology for it to be a worker replacement except around the edges of industries. Basically it replaces entry-level people. The rest is largely AI slop that drains the resources of entire cities.
I know this has nothing to do with the OP, but I'm really noticing the lack of entry-level people in a few companies I've seen. No valid case can be made to hire people to do work that Chat Gippity does for free, but who will one day be needed to replace the aging management and executives. Maybe by then AI will be able to do their jobs too. In the meantime, we're missing qualified internal hires for promotion to team lead, management, or senior-level individual contributor positions.

This particular issue is about how AI and related tech companies are creating money out of pure speculation, and in a closed loop. There's no underlying value. It's just circle designed to hoodwink investors. It doesn't parallel the Dot.Com bubble. It is more akin to the 1929 bubble, whereby people would pay for stock by taking bank loans, and paying the loans down with stock value.

Don't worry, this bubble is only propping up the entire American economy. Cheers!
A correction is needed before this turns into a dot-com / housing situation. Unfortunately, there's a near infinite amount of money available to be invested into the next big thing. What will we do when OpenAI is too big to fail? Will we cover the asses of the venture capitalists and AI investors the way we did Bank of America, etc.?
 
I happen to own a decent amount of Nvidia....and have for 3+ years

My take is....if you dont like the way the executives of these companies are operating, either sell your shares....or dont invest in them

None of these companies are penny stocks....none are the types of companies that the meme crowd usually get involved with.....

The stock market is and always has been risky....either you are willing to accept the risks, or you arent....

Now if you really want to see a few companies where people are at risk.....

Take a look at the quantum computing stocks, and what they have been doing for the last few months....these the meme crowd have been taking on a ride to the moon.....most have very few sales, and none have any earnings.....and the experts say we are a minimum of 4-6 years away from quantum computing becoming a thing

So do you have ANY concerns whatsoever about the circular financing deals taking place at all?

Creating artificial demand for Nvidia Chips?

Nvidia is 7% of the S&P 500 and it does appear we're seeing some highly questionable things going on.

You say, claim anyway, that you know business, despite supporting Trump.

Come on then, let's get your take on it, tell the class what you think.
 
So do you have ANY concerns whatsoever about the circular financing deals taking place at all?

Creating artificial demand for Nvidia Chips?

Nvidia is 7% of the S&P 500 and it does appear we're seeing some highly questionable things going on.

You say, claim anyway, that you know business, despite supporting Trump.

Come on then, let's get your take on it, tell the class what you think.
I was a cfo in a 160m+ corp for over a decade
Before that, numerous stints as corp controller in larger corp's than that

I am not, nor ever have been, a supporter of Trump

As far as the deal that Nvidia made....
They have invested in numerous spacs over the years....
I see this investment in OpenAI as something similar

Now it is much larger than their previous investments
But the bottom line is this
Do i trust the C suite of Nvidia, and do i believe my investment in their equity is sound and prudent at this time

YES
 
I was a cfo in a 160m+ corp for over a decade
Before that, numerous stints as corp controller in larger corp's than that

I am not, nor ever have been, a supporter of Trump

As far as the deal that Nvidia made....
They have invested in numerous spacs over the years....
I see this investment in OpenAI as something similar

Now it is much larger than their previous investments
But the bottom line is this
Do i trust the C suite of Nvidia, and do i believe my investment in their equity is sound and prudent at this time

YES

Listen pal.

We can talk about inflated equities and whether they match the true value of the company til the cows come, I'm sure you're happy with the stock price.

Fantastic, have a cookie, in fact, I bet you can afford several.

But you have never demonstrated a business acumen I've ever seen that shows me you know jack when just as an example, if I've confused your support for Trump with maybe just support for retarded policies like the tariffs:

You can produce whatever you like....but if it happens the way i think it is going to happen, your cars are going to be a lot more expensive now than the ones made here in the US

So the public will have the option of still buying those vehicles....just at higher prices
Just as the ones built in Mexico will now be higher

According to recent data, Canada experienced a trade deficit in 2024, with the overall international goods trade deficit increasing to $7.2 billion, primarily due to higher imports of goods compared to exports; while Canada did see a surplus in services trade, this was not enough to offset the goods deficit.

In 2024, the U.S. trade deficit was $918.4 billion, which was a 17% increase from 2023. This was the second highest trade deficit on record.

So, yeah....we NEED to do something....sorry if you see it differently

This is just one example I could bring up about how you don't really seem to understand things on a fundamental level, the idea that you NEEDED TO DO SOMETHING!!!!! is just ****ing stupid in that situation along with everything he's done since that you are failing to criticize because by the way, since you bring up vehicle prices:


If you're telling me you were a CFO (which I doubt given the things you say), you do not see an issue, say if you were the CFO of a Bread company for example, you would advise a deal to give $100 Million to a grocery store chain, that would turn around and buy your bread...

You wouldn't see an issue with that?

You would say that's a solid deal?

Yes I know your share price has done well, but we're talking about the fundamental business aspect of all this and all of this share price stuff around NVIDIA is based off demand for its chips, SORA 2 and its accompanying scroll page to me, shows major weakness, you look at the fundamental numbers of how much revenue they have to produce vs the upkeep cost of what they're building, vs the future upgrade costs of the chips themselves, this doesn't look good at all, AI companies, to cover the costs of all this funding scaling, they would need to eclipse Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia combined in 5 years.

How likely do you think that is?

And that's my fundamental issue what the fact that you don't see the bigger picture and look, as far as the share price goes, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid in general, not you specifically, and so maybe this hype train keeps going for years more, but your inability to address the fundamentals and just focus on the share price, tells me you haven't even looked, nor care, nor perhaps even understand whats going on here.

If the demand for the chips was so incredible, if AI was going to do what it promised, why would this kind of investment even be necessary?

Because in theory NVIDIA should be selling the chips to competing companies at the highest possible price and not using its own money to essentially fund sales at a discount to companies they've invested in.
 
  • AMD issued warrants allowing OpenAI to buy shares at $0.01 each, a nominal price.
  • The vesting of these warrants is tied to milestones, including OpenAI’s purchase of AMD hardware.
  • As OpenAI buys chips, it earns more warrants, increasing its equity stake.
  • Analysts like Timothy Arcuri of UBS suggest OpenAI will likely sell the AMD stock as it vests to fund its chip purchases—effectively using AMD’s own stock to pay for AMD’s products.

Is This a Circular Deal?​

Yes, this deal fits the definition of a circular deal, where investment and purchasing flows move in a loop between interconnected companies.
Examples from the AI ecosystem:

  • Nvidia invests $100B in OpenAI → OpenAI buys Nvidia-powered cloud services from Oracle → Oracle buys Nvidia chips → Nvidia profits fund further investments.
  • AMD gives OpenAI stock → OpenAI uses that stock to pay for AMD chips → AMD gains revenue and market validation.
As described by analysts, this creates a self-reinforcing cycle that may inflate growth metrics without corresponding real-world demand.

Concerns About Stock Manipulation​

While not illegal per se, the deal has raised concerns about market manipulation and artificial valuation inflation:

  • Stock price surge: AMD’s shares jumped over 30% after the announcement, despite no immediate cash inflow.
  • Dilution risk: Issuing 160 million new shares dilutes existing shareholders.
  • Circular validation: The deal boosts AMD’s revenue projections based on a customer (OpenAI) that is partly funded by AMD’s own stock.
  • Critics liken it to vendor financing schemes from the dot-com bubble, where companies booked revenue from customers who paid in stock.


giphy.gif

I didn't come up with this myself, saw it on reddit somewhere but story essentially goes like this:

Two Economists are taking a stroll through the park, they come across a piece of shit.

The one economist says to the other economist, I'll give you $100 to eat that piece of shit, he does so and they continue their stroll.

They then come across another piece of shit, the economist who ate the first piece of shit, says he'll pay the other $100 to eat this piece of shit, he does so.

The second economist says, "I think we just ate shit for nothing", to which the first economist says "nonsense, we just created $200 in GDP".
 
Back
Top Bottom