All things China/military/economy/trade/etc

[JANFU]

China’s economy is sluggish. Countries EU/NA will impose restrictions as state-supported companies try to corner the world markets
EU is investigating dumping from EVs to solar panels sold at below costs to produce
What happened in the early part of this century is China
Youth unemployment, true numbers have been faked, with an estimated rate of approx 40 %
No pensions to speak of
Real estate companies defaulted with many Chinese who invested, paying mortgages for uncompleted apartments
Higher debt than the US
From what I have read, many young Chinese after paying for an education cannot find work
Discontent is on the rise
But a war has an impact on coalescing support for the country

Japan has stepped up with an increased military budget, and joint training with the Philippines

China's debt problem

A look at China's debt as a percentage of GDP since 2006.

fingfx.thomsonreuters.com

The Root of China’s Growing Youth Unemployment Crisis

www.cfr.org

Sino-Indian border dispute - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Allan]

But a war has an impact on coalescing support for the country

If there's one thing Chinese leaders are afraid of it's their own citizens. The population isn't as well controlled as say North Korea.

A war would destroy China's economy, leaving hundreds of millions of young people unemployed and pissed, in the main cities.

 

[JANFU]

If there's one thing Chinese leaders are afraid of it's their own citizens. The population isn't as well controlled as say North Korea.

A war would destroy China's economy, leaving hundreds of millions of young people unemployed and pissed, in the main cities.

We saw that with Tiananmen Square, Covid restrictions, and pork riots when disease decimated the hog population. China maintains a pork bank, with huge quantities of pork on hand. As China developed, incomes increased, and meats became affordable.

As China ramps up exports at below cost, expect Western countries to block sales, and add tariffs. This results in layoffs, with China having no social safety net

And to your point, China always falls from within. They fear mass riots as they can rapidly spin out of control

 

[JANFU]

 

[JANFU]

More companies are relocating most if not all of their production
Foreign investment has tanked
Businesses do not trust the legal environment under Xi
From India to Malaysia, to Vietnam
This runs the gamut from low cost to hi tech

China's iPhone-making dominance may be coming to an end

India is offering lucrative manufacturing support programs to attract companies like Apple that want to move their supply chains away from China.

www.newsweek.com

 

[gman]

China’s economy is sluggish. Countries EU/NA will impose restrictions as state-supported companies try to corner the world markets
EU is investigating dumping from EVs to solar panels sold at below costs to produce
What happened in the early part of this century is China
Youth unemployment, true numbers have been faked, with an estimated rate of approx 40 %
No pensions to speak of
Real estate companies defaulted with many Chinese who invested, paying mortgages for uncompleted apartments
Higher debt than the US
From what I have read, many young Chinese after paying for an education cannot find work
Discontent is on the rise
But a war has an impact on coalescing support for the country

Japan has stepped up with an increased military budget, and joint training with the Philippines

China's debt problem

A look at China's debt as a percentage of GDP since 2006.

fingfx.thomsonreuters.com

The Root of China’s Growing Youth Unemployment Crisis

www.cfr.org

Sino-Indian border dispute - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

In a scenario like China’s, there’s no better way to galvanize your population than appealing to national fervor thru war. This is dangerous because Chinese leaders will fight for their own dogmatic survival.

 

[JANFU]

In a scenario like China’s, there’s no better way to galvanize your population than appealing to national fervor thru war. This is dangerous because Chinese leaders will fight for their own dogmatic survival.

Xi has played the nationalist card, well, frequently. The issue is it can spin out of control and direct policy decisions, and we know where that goes

 

[JANFU]

Tariffs on electric vehicles, in particular, could quadruple — from the existing 25% to 100%. The plan was described by the people on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to provide details ahead of a formal announcement.

The tariffs, expected to be announced Tuesday, come as officials across the Democratic administration have expressed frustration over China’s manufacturing “overcapacity” of EVs and other products that they say pose a threat to U.S. jobs and national security.

Industrialized nations including the United States and its European allies fear a wave of low-priced Chinese exports will overwhelm domestic manufacturing. On the U.S. side, there is particular concern that China’s green energy products will undermine massive climate-friendly investments made through the Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act that President Joe Biden signed into law in August 2022.

This along with transfers of AI Tech will also come shortly

US plans to impose major new tariffs on EVs, other Chinese green energy imports, AP sources say

The Biden administration is planning to announce new tariffs on electric vehicles, semiconductors, solar equipment and medical supplies imported from China.

apnews.com

 

[Pyrite]

In a scenario like China’s, there’s no better way to galvanize your population than appealing to national fervor thru war. This is dangerous because Chinese leaders will fight for their own dogmatic survival.

Taiwan

or

Philippines and the South China Sea

 

[JANFU]

Taiwan

or

Philippines and the South China Sea

Taiwan. But sadly they have not enough kit and trained soldiers
They have the tech to roll out 10s of 1000s of drones, submersible/air-launched to sink a Chinese fleet
Yet they do not

 

[Pyrite]

Taiwan. But sadly they have not enough kit and trained soldiers
They have the tech to roll out 10s of 1000s of drones, submersible/air-launched to sink a Chinese fleet
Yet they do not

Yeah, I know.

Why do I care about the fate of Taiwan?

Primarily because of TSMC, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

 

[JANFU]

Yeah, I know.

Why do I care about the fate of Taiwan?

Primarily because of TSMC, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

The US would destroy the facilities
Which would send the world economy into a tailspin of recession

 

[Pyrite]

The US would destroy the facilities
Which would send the world economy into a tailspin of recession

Were they destroyed, the world would quickly "tailspin into a recession".

Were the mainland Chinese to grab control and continue the same level of production of highly-sophisticated chips, well, the tail would spin a bit more slowly into recession. (And, in the meantime, we'd be at the mercy of China.)

Oh, heck, I'm all doom and gloom, but knowing the value and significance of TSMC and its products tends to make the prospect of a Chinese takeover - or a war between the US and China re Taiwan - pretty alarming.)

 

[JANFU]

Choking off US investment in China
That is good

Thus, the PIA encourages “divestment from Chinese securities by removing the beneficial capital gains tax rate,” according to a bill summary – requiring all U.S. investors to pay the 37 percent rate for ordinary income on all future financial gains from investments in Chinese financial assets. The bill would allow investors six months to divest from China to avoid the higher taxes. The PIA would also increase the tax rate on future gains, deterring U.S. capital from returning to China and would deny foreign tax credits paid to China.


If U.S. investors want to use their capital to strengthen an adversary’s economic, technological, and military development, Washington should at least not subsidize this investment through the tax code.


Investors interested in the China market (despite the PRC’s economic woes and adversarial relationship with the U.S.) would do well to take note. Whereas the Biden administration’s Executive Order restricting investment into China focused only on active investment and was limited to a few sectors, the PIA is much broader. It would encompass passive purchases of Alibaba stock on the NASDAQ, as well as venture capital into Chinese semiconductor stocks. It would reach the approximated $1 trillion of U.S. capital invested in China.


U.S. investors in China should be especially alert because the PIA faces a decent chance of passage. First, it is a bill to increase taxes being led by two prominent Republicans; Democratic support should be easy to pick up. Second, with a massive tax cliff coming next year, one of the few post-election certainties is that Congress will pass a large tax package, and they’ll be looking for politically palatable ways to raise revenue. The PIA is just such a bill. What member of Congress would not support taxing those investing in the United States’ foremost adversary at least the same tax rate applied to American workers’ salaries?

How the Patriotic Investment Act Can Counter China’s Stimulus Package

A little-noticed bill introduced in the U.S. Congress has the potential to chill American investors’ appetite for Chinese assets.

thediplomat.com