Israel and the Arab states near the Persian Gulf recognize a common threat: the regime in Tehran. A regional diplomat has not even ruled out support by the Arab states for a military strike to end Iran's nuclear ambitions.
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This makes the words uttered last Tuesday by the UAE's ambassador to the United States, Yousef Al Otaiba, in Aspen, Colorado, more than 12,500 kilometers to the west, all the more interesting. Otaiba was attending a forum at the Aspen Institute's Ideas Festival, and the mood was relaxed, or at least it was too relaxed for diplomatic restraint.
The discussion revolved around the Middle East. When asked whether the UAE would support a possible Israeli air strike against the regime in Tehran, Ambassador Otaiba said: "A military attack on Iran by whomever would be a disaster, but Iran with a nuclear weapon would be a bigger disaster."
These were unusually candid words. A military strike, the diplomat continued, would undoubtedly lead to a "backlash." "There will be problems of people protesting and rioting and very unhappy that there is an outside force attacking a Muslim country," he said.
But, he added, "if you are asking me, 'Am I willing to live with that versus living with a nuclear Iran,' my answer is still the same. We cannot live with a nuclear Iran. I am willing to absorb what takes place at the expense of the security of the U.A.E."
Democratic Congresswoman Jane Harman said afterwards that she had never heard anything like it coming from an Arab government official. Otaiba, she added, was "astonishingly honest."
Notwithstanding the shocking nature of his remarks, Otaiba was merely expressing, in a public forum, "the standard position of many Arab countries," says Middle East expert Jeffrey Goldberg, a writer for 'The Atlantic Monthly' who moderated the panel discussion in Aspen.
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While everyone has obsessed over an I-P settlment over the last few years, a new dynamic has emerged that will perhaps help settle the Palestine issue by making the interested parties aware of it's relative secondary nature as an issue compared to the New Iranian threat to All in the region.
Previous statments/whispers by members of the govts of Kuwait, Egypt, Saudia Arabia, testify to this.
IMO, the Iran issue is a far more important geopolitically than the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. The outcome concerning Iran would have broad balance-of-power implications for the region and spark a conventional and nuclear arms race there. It could dramatically alter the Shia-Sunni relationship. It could lead to some of the region's more hardline actors gaining leverage vis-a-vis more moderate elements. It could also have elevate the power possessed by various non-state actors in the region.
At this point.. I agree with you.I will be vey surprised if ANYONE attacks Iran. They WILL have a nuclear weapon in a year or two. It is now the policy of two U.S. Presidents to kick the can down the road.
We have lived a a nuclear North Korea and we will have to find a way to live with a nuclear Iran.
At this point.. I agree with you.
As I said above-- it looks like Obama has no such intent despite the empty pronouncements of the unacceptability of an Iranian Nuke.
And Israel couldn't conceivably go it alone.
Perhaps they will surprise us.. or as the article infers... the greatest surprise of all; a joint Israel/Gulf-Arab-State attack.
No way but - "The enemy of my enemy is my friend"- is an arab proverb.
"....This new Middle East cold war comes complete with its own spy-versus-spy intrigues, disinformation campaigns, shadowy proxy forces, supercharged state rhetoric—and very high stakes.
"The cold war is a reality," says one senior Saudi official. "Iran is looking to expand its influence. This instability over the last few months means that we don't have the luxury of sitting back and watching events unfold."
On March 14, the Saudis rolled tanks and troops across a causeway into the island kingdom of Bahrain. The ruling family there, long a close Saudi ally, appealed for assistance in dealing with increasingly large protests.
Iran soon rattled its own sabers. Iranian parliamentarian Ruhollah Hosseinian urged the Islamic Republic to put its military forces on high alert, reported the website for Press TV, the state-run English-language news agency. "I believe that the Iranian government should not be reluctant to prepare the country's military forces at a time that Saudi Arabia has dispatched its troops to Bahrain," he was quoted as saying.
The intensified wrangling across the Persian—or, as the Saudis insist, the Arabian—Gulf-
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That's strange. If they don't want nukes because it could invite an attack, why do they continue to enrich uranium instead of accepting more-than-reasonable compromise offers from the UNSC?People have been claiming that Iran is close to having a nuclear weapon now for the better part of thirty years. This region of the world is my field of study and personally I don't believe that Iran is interested that much in a nuclear weapon. Why? It's simple... They do not need one in order to fulfill their national interests. Having one would almost certainly result in pre-emptive strikes against them so why invite that possibility when it is not necessary.
I would think Ahmadenijiad knows that if he tried to annex Iraq, the U.S. would be there to stop it.The gulf countries have large shiite majorities and Iran would like to extend its influence in the region. The only thing previously keeping Iranian expansion in check was Saddam Hussein, but now that he is gone all the Iranians need to do is wait it out for the Americans to leave. The Americans cannot sustain an occupation in Iraq forever.
It seems to me that they (America/Israel) know Iran is governed by whackjobs who openly support terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezboalla, are in bed with Syria, and gave material aid to insurgents in Iraq who killed our troops with it, among many other things.Obviously the idea of Iran expanding its influence is alarming to those with interests in the areas mentioned (America/Israel). It's not that existentially fear Iran, they just know that as long as Iran is there they won't be able to unilaterally impose their will on the region.
I agree, that translation is wrong. What he said was that the forces occupying Jerusalem should "vanish from the pages of time." Not a huge difference, but it does not specifically call for or threaten any military action, as the original translation suggests.Now to what degree is up for debate but we in America live in a democracy that requires public support for military actions. The way this is being acquired is by scare tactics of possible Iranian nukes and framing it in a way where one is left feeling that we just cant take any chances. This consent is being garnered by claiming that Ahmadinejad said he wanted to "wipe Israel off the map" along with claiming he is a Holocaust denier and claiming that he said the Bush admin did 9/11. What you need to understand here is he didn't actually say these things as they were reported. If you actually watch the footage where these claims originate, you would be able to see it for yourself. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that Ahmadinejad is really a swell guy or anything, or claim that he feels one way or another about topic A or B, but the claims being made to gain support for an attack are false and intentionally false.
Their, and everyone's national interest is the perception of Strength. Nukes certainly don't hurt.People have been claiming that Iran is close to having a nuclear weapon now for the better part of thirty years. This region of the world is my field of study and personally I don't believe that Iran is interested that much in a nuclear weapon. Why? It's simple... They do not need one in order to fulfill their national interests.
They're already Inviting pre-emptive strikes with their continued enrichment capabilities and secret new plants being discovered.Jrew said:Having one would almost certainly result in pre-emptive strikes against them so why invite that possibility when it is not necessary.
So you're conceding Iran's expansionist goals, but saying Nukes wouldn't help achieve them?Jrew said:The gulf countries have large shiite majorities and Iran would like to extend its influence in the region. The only thing previously keeping Iranian expansion in check was Saddam Hussein, but now that he is gone all the Iranians need to do is wait it out for the Americans to leave. The Americans cannot sustain an occupation in Iraq forever.
It's the Gulf States who are most threatened by Iran even without Nukes and they who are Most anxious:Jrew said:Obviously the idea of Iran expanding its influence is alarming to those with interests in the areas mentioned (America/Israel). It's not that existentially fear Iran, they just know that as long as Iran is there they won't be able to unilaterally impose their will on the region.
I don't think it's "scare tactics" at all.Jrew said:Now to what degree is up for debate but we in America live in a democracy that requires public support for military actions. The way this is being acquired is by scare tactics of possible Iranian nukes and framing it in a way where one is left feeling that we just cant take any chances.
And this is the usual Strawman.Jrew said:This consent is being garnered by claiming that Ahmadinejad said he wanted to "wipe Israel off the map" along with claiming he is a Holocaust denier and claiming that he said the Bush admin did 9/11. What you need to understand here is he didn't actually say these things as they were reported. If you actually watch the footage where these claims originate, you would be able to see it for yourself. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that Ahmadinejad is really a swell guy or anything, or claim that he feels one way or another about topic A or B, but the claims being made to gain support for an attack are false and intentionally false.
That's strange. If they don't want nukes because it could invite an attack, why do they continue to enrich uranium instead of accepting more-than-reasonable compromise offers from the UNSC?
I would think Ahmadenijiad knows that if he tried to annex Iraq, the U.S. would be there to stop it.
It seems to me that they (America/Israel) know Iran is governed by whackjobs who openly support terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezboalla, are in bed with Syria, and gave material aid to insurgents in Iraq who killed our troops with it, among many other things.
I agree, that translation is wrong. What he said was that the forces occupying Jerusalem should "vanish from the pages of time." Not a huge difference, but it does not specifically call for or threaten any military action, as the original translation suggests.
Lat year around this time Iran was in talks with Turkey and Brazil to swap fuel rods. Turkey and Brazil would ship rods enriched for medical use to Iran and they would send the spent rods back to Turkey and Brazil. I think is interesting is that this a plan that the US had demanded of Iran, but because it didn't go through US channels they are now against it.
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