2024 Presidential Election

[Doug64]

And another change in the RCP No Toss-Ups electoral college map, and this time it isn't Pennsylvania doing another flip:




This one's big, if it sticks. The Michigan RCP average of polls currently sits at Trump +0.5, and it stands even after eliminating the two most extreme polls.

 

[Doug64]

And things just keep getting worse for Harris, now it's Nevada that might be drifting away.

 

[Doug64]

And now things get even worse for the Democrats in RCP's No Toss-Ups Electoral College map, now with Wisconsin drifting into Trump's column.

 

[Doug64]

So, a slight improvement for Harris, maybe, as Michigan flips to Blue:

 

[Luce]

My guess is that 3 or 4 states will refuse to certify and it turns into a big bloody mess.

 

[gman]

My guess is that 3 or 4 states will refuse to certify and it turns into a big bloody mess.

That’s a distinct possibility given today’s political landscape.

 

[Doug64]

Another shift, now it's Wisconsin back in the Blue. If these polls are accurate, then whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the election. Of course, if the polls are off as much this year as they were in 2020, then Trump wins Michigan and Wisconsin. So the question is, how much have the pollsters improved since 2020?

 

[Doug64]

So, checking the impact of the final polls, and doing my usual "drop the most extreme two polls and recompute," and there is no change in the Electoral College map--Trump wins by 36 electoral votes (and the national popular vote, not that it really matters). If there is the polls miss as much as they did in 2020, the map will look like this:



So Harris has to be praying that the pollsters have done a better job reading the tea leaves this time.