True, but there remains that possibility even tho slim. But who do you think it will affect more? Don’t forget, H. Ross Perot received almost twenty million votes.
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When one candidate is an incumbent, spoiler candidates usually hurt the challenger more than the incumbent. Independents tend to vote for incumbents unless they are given a glaring reason not to and, though widely unpopular, Biden hasn't done anything particularly egregious, where Trump has done many egregious things. And given Nikki Haley's (relatively) impressive performance in the primaries, I'd say Republicans are more primed for an alternative to their candidate than Democrats are.True, but there remains that possibility even tho slim. But who do you think it will affect more? Don’t forget, H. Ross Perot received almost twenty million votes.
RFK will only be the spoiler if he gets on the ballot of all 50 states. I think right now he's on the ballot in like … five states:
Not so. We already know who's going to win in most states, it's only a handful of states where the issue is in doubt.
My point about Kennedy is that if he's not registered in swing states, his presence is basically redundant as far as whether he will be a "spoiler."
Not so. We already know who's going to win in most states, it's only a handful of states where the issue is in doubt.
And for how much the Biden campaign has to worry about, Karl Rove always has some interesting numbers. In Arizona, if the two candidates get the same percentage of each demographic as in 2020 and turnout for either the Hispanics or the 18-29 age group declines by 0.5%, Trump wins. Likewise in Georgia if Black turnout drops by 0.3% In Nevada, Democrats have a 33k lead in party registrations but that's down from 2020 by 54k, and Biden only won the state by 33k votes. Likewise, in Pennsylvania Democrats have a lead in party registrations of 399k but that's down from 2020 by 286k and he only won the state by 81k votes.
Good point, and now Kennedy's on the ballot in Michigan.
I wouldn't take that poll too seriously, you get outliers and that looks like one. One thing I do when checking out RCP's polling is drop the "highest" and "lowest" poll and recalculate the average, precisely to get rid of outliers. For Pennsylvania currently, if you eliminate the Biden +10 and Trump +4 you get an average of Trump +0.75.
This map here ( the first one -- and I have no clue if the post is going to show it?) Is how people would have voted in March, with one exception: Wisconsin would have gone blue going by most recent March poll.Good point, and now Kennedy's on the ballot in Michigan.
I wouldn't take that poll too seriously, you get outliers and that looks like one. One thing I do when checking out RCP's polling is drop the "highest" and "lowest" poll and recalculate the average, precisely to get rid of outliers. For Pennsylvania currently, if you eliminate the Biden +10 and Trump +4 you get an average of Trump +0.75.
Speaking of polling, here's something interesting:
Usually, what you get in the run-up to the general election is the Republican running ahead in the total number of states and the Democrat leading in the Electoral College, with the question being if the Republican can win enough of the swing states to make up the difference. I can't remember the last time I saw the Republican leading in both the number of states and the Electoral College.
And here's the current RCP Presidential No Toss-Up map:
The map is based on an average of the last five polls RCP has listed, including two in April. The RCP average currently has Trump +1. Using my "drop the highest and lowest" method, that drops to Trump +0.67.
The best pollsters will have the occasional poll that makes absolutely no sense, and I suspect that's one of them.
Well said
I would bet on a Trump Harris Administration.
Technically, I believe a swing state is any state where the leading candidate is within the margin of error. The latest poll (and only one within the past six months) has Biden leading by 2 with a margin of error of 4.3, so it counts.
RFK Jr is not even on the ballot in most states, I think he is up to only 7, He stands almost zero chances of even getting a few EC votes.
We won’t know till the fat lady sings.
If that were true, I would agree with you. However, fivethirtyeight has many other polls. See here:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com