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2024 Most Valuable Pollster (MVP) Rankings (1 Viewer)

Firstly, it is quite daunting to sift through the full page at ActiVote explaining how the results were established.

Secondly, using a link on their site to get to AtlasIntel doesn't help unless the reader/viewer is some sort of specialist in this. Frankly, I felt like that AtlasIntel site was more interested in forcing my hand at doing a download, rather than ActiVote placing me on a page that helped summarized that site's results.

Then we see this at ActiVote:

The comparison with other pollsters who produce 60+ polls is striking:
Siena/NYT with 72 polls in 18th place ...

______ which seems in some sort of conflict with this:

John Warren / November 13, 2024

Most political polls for the 2024 presidential election saw a close race in the electoral college, and a resounding popular-vote victory for Democrat Kamala Harris. Trump won the electoral college 312 to 226, and the popular vote by more than three million votes. We asked polling and survey expert Andy Crosby with the UCR School of Public Policy to tell us what the polls may have missed, or whether we — the voters — misinterpreted the polls. Crosby writes:

How accurate were the polls in the 2024 election?
Overall, high-quality polls were quite accurate. For example, the final national New York Times/Siena of likely voters conducted October 20-23 showed a tie (48%-48%). As of Monday, November 11, with most votes now tallied, former President Trump holds a 50.2%-48.1% lead nationally — a result which is within that poll’s margin of error of 2.2%.

That above from UCR was a result of my entering the following into a Google search engine:

< which presidential poll in 2024 was correct >

And what resulted on Page One looked really weird.

But I scrolled down to this one after that UCR view; changed browsers to suit Yahoo's heavy advert loads;

finally managed to get some of this:


What polls got right and wrong about the 2024 presidential election
Colin Campbell _ Editor
Thu, November 7, 2024 at 3:08 AM GMT+9
5 min read


The polls mostly got it right.
Broadly speaking, the aggregate of the 2024 presidential election polls indicated that it was an extremely close race between former Republican President Donald Trump, now the president-elect, and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. The polls indicated the race would come down to seven swing states.
And that’s exactly what happened. With 46 state race calls as of Wednesday afternoon, neither Trump nor Harris has won a single state predicted to be a lock for the other candidate. There were no major upsets yet in the Senate map either.

And that vocabulary usage in that first part of that article appears to have been written by a presidential candidate's PR Director; what a bunch of crap! Broadly speaking the aggregate of ANYTHING is extremely close. It just depends on how BROAD the AGGREGATE is!!

<><><><><><><><><>

My summary after about an hour of chasing rat shit around the Net is somebody is trying to feed bovine excrement to somebody else, but I can't even figure out who the 'Somebodies' are.

Over here in Japan we were basically getting from the polls that we were shown in various media formats, that Harris was going to kick Trump's butt.

Now we are suddenly seeing how all these poll making folks were right all along, or close to right, or - - - Yeah-Yeah-Yeah - - - setting us up for the next round of bullshit, eh!!!

<><><><><><><><><>

I am happy about one thing and which makes this whole effort not exactly a waste of an hour of my time; there are way too many people in that business of polling and that means believing all that shit is just plain shit!!!!

And, yes, to those that might be surprised at my actually using profanity, this whole polling stuff is what I thought before I started this bullshit - - - it is all a bunch of garbage!!!!!

Anyway, yesterday I received permission directly from a Community Moderator and CNN to use profanity. So here I did. Wonder who CNN used for their polling? Did CNN state that the election was going to be an even-even result?
 
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Firstly, it is quite daunting to sift through the full page at ActiVote explaining how the results were established.

Secondly, using a link on their site to get to AtlasIntel doesn't help unless the reader/viewer is some sort of specialist in this. Frankly, I felt like that AtlasIntel site was more interested in forcing my hand at doing a download, rather than ActiVote placing me on a page that helped summarized that site's results.

Then we see this at ActiVote:



______ which seems in some sort of conflict with this:

John Warren / November 13, 2024



That above from UCR was a result of my entering the following into a Google search engine:

< which presidential poll in 2024 was correct >

And what resulted on Page One looked really weird.

But I scrolled down to this one after that UCR view; changed browsers to suit Yahoo's heavy advert loads;

finally managed to get some of this:


What polls got right and wrong about the 2024 presidential election
Colin Campbell _ Editor
Thu, November 7, 2024 at 3:08 AM GMT+9
5 min read




And that vocabulary usage in that first part of that article appears to have been written by a presidential candidate's PR Director; what a bunch of crap! Broadly speaking the aggregate of ANYTHING is extremely close. It just depends on how BROAD the AGGREGATE is!!

<><><><><><><><><>

My summary after about an hour of chasing rat shit around the Net is somebody is trying to feed bovine excrement to somebody else, but I can't even figure out who the 'Somebodies' are.

Over here in Japan we were basically getting from the polls that we were shown in various media formats, that Harris was going to kick Trump's butt.

Now we are suddenly seeing how all these poll making folks were right all along, or close to right, or - - - Yeah-Yeah-Yeah - - - setting us up for the next round of bullshit, eh!!!

<><><><><><><><><>

I am happy about one thing and which makes this whole effort not exactly a waste of an hour of my time; there are way too many people in that business of polling and that means believing all that shit is just plain shit!!!!

And, yes, to those that might be surprised at my actually using profanity, this whole polling stuff is what I thought before I started this bullshit - - - it is all a bunch of garbage!!!!!

Anyway, yesterday I received permission directly from a Community Moderator and CNN to use profanity. So here I did. Wonder who CNN used for their polling? Did CNN state that the election was going to be an even-even result?
THAT is a lot of words.
I keep my analysis simpler:

If my guy is up and your guy is down, the polls are trustworthy.
If my guy is down and your guy is up, then polls are fake, distorted and biased.
 
We had an election/elections on November 5th. The pollsters who got those right or were very close are the only ones with credibility, currently. The rest are noise to create news. There will be opportunities for redemption in 2026 but I expect that their polling result will reflect their desire.

The Real Clear Politics averages in garbage creating bigger garbage.
 
Since FiveThirtyEight got shut down before they could rank the 2024 pollster performance, ActiVote stepped up to the plate.

Given how badly Five thirty eight has missed the last three elections, they should have been shut down a long time ago.
 
The Real Clear Politics averages in garbage creating bigger garbage.
The RCP averages do a great deal better than many--maybe most--pollsters.
 

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