2 new US Senate 2026 polls today have Rs ahead in TX and Ds ahead in NC (= pickup).

[Tender Branson]

Texas is R-held and unlikely to go to the Dems next year.

North Carolina is R-held, but Dems have landed a top-recruit with former 2-time Governor Cooper and he's also ahead of the new R candidate. The incumbent R Senator will retire.

2026 Texas Senate - Paxton vs. Allred

Emerson

Paxton 46, Allred 41

Paxton +5

2026 Texas Senate - Cornyn vs. Allred	Emerson	Cornyn 45, Allred 38	Cornyn +7
2026 North Carolina Senate - Whatley vs. Cooper	Carolina Journal/Harper	Cooper 47, Whatley 39	Cooper +8

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[Tender Branson]

North Carolina looks like the only pickup opportunity so far.

Maine could eventually also emerge as another pickup opportunity, because REP Susan Collins has bad ratings ... but she usually still always wins somehow. But she could also retire.

I don't see any other pickups right now, maybe Ohio under the right circumstances.

If DEMS manage to pick up NC, ME and OH, they would have 50 seats. A longshot win in TX would give them a majority.

But that is assuming they also keep the Georgia Senate race, which is not certain. GA has a D Senator, but Trump won the state.

 

[Phys251]

The Senate is unlikely to flip next year. We need to flip four seats while not losing any. But stranger things have happened...

 

[Tender Branson]

The Senate is unlikely to flip next year. We need to flip four seats while not losing any. But stranger things have happened...

We need to wait for the results of the governor races in November first, to see what the mood is ...