‘Terrified of losing their rights’: abortion is a leading issue for Arizona’s Latino voters

[choiceone]

538 accounts for it: "... Whereas polls of all registered voters or all adults usually overstate the performance of Democratic candidates, polls of likely voters have had almost no long-term bias.
This represents one difference between FiveThirtyEight’s Senate projections and several other forecast models. Our program “translates” registered voter polls to make them equivalent to likely voter results. With some exceptions, other forecast models do not. This is one reason the FiveThirtyEight model tends to show a more favorable outcome for Republicans.
And history is on our side..."

Thanks for answering, but I don't think 538 accounts for what I noted. I have seen polls of likely voters go for Biden, but not Trump, whereas those of registered voters went for Trump, not Biden. I don't know of any polls that ignore these variables.

I have seen that the majority of people in the US, whether or not they vote, support reproductive rights, the continuation of public Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and welfare, the continuation of the federal Department of Education, public schools, at least some form of gun control, support of the existence of unions, and many other standby Democratic Party positions that are opposed by Republicans.

It remains to be seen whether or not people will choose support for democratic values over money, money, money in the election of 2024.

 

[Slavister]

Thanks for answering, but I don't think 538 accounts for what I noted. I have seen polls of likely voters go for Biden, but not Trump, whereas those of registered voters went for Trump, not Biden. I don't know of any polls that ignore these variables.

538 does not do polls. Rather is aggregates other polls after giving them weights based on their quality and things like these. So if they say they account for this, I believe them.

I have seen that the majority of people in the US, whether or not they vote, support reproductive rights, the continuation of public Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and welfare, the continuation of the federal Department of Education, public schools, at least some form of gun control, support of the existence of unions, and many other standby Democratic Party positions that are opposed by Republicans.

Does not matter what majority supports. Republican Presidents lately get voted in by EC despite the majority, not by the majority.

It remains to be seen whether or not people will choose support for democratic values over money, money, money in the election of 2024.

A lot of the country is in Cult now. They are not voting for money. They are poor and voting against their own interests because they believe right wing media, social media algorithms and russian bots that amplify that message, and aunt Bettie who knows best.

 

[choiceone]

538 does not do polls. Rather is aggregates other polls after giving them weights based on their quality and things like these. So if they say they account for this, I believe them.



Does not matter what majority supports. Republican Presidents lately get voted in by EC despite the majority, not by the majority.



A lot of the country is in Cult now. They are not voting for money. They are poor and voting against their own interests because they believe right wing media, social media algorithms and russian bots that amplify that message, and aunt Bettie who knows best.

Not disagreeing, but in numerous polls on key issues, the economy and inflation come in as the highest concern of people, and more people appear in polls on parties to trust the GOP on these issues than trust Democrats - though this actually seems stupid to me in the context of history going back to 1980.

 

[Slavister]

Not disagreeing, but in numerous polls on key issues, the economy and inflation come in as the highest concern of people, and more people appear in polls on parties to trust the GOP on these issues than trust Democrats - though this actually seems stupid to me in the context of history going back to 1980.

Yes it's stupid because Presidents rarely affect economy within their term. This association between Presidency and economy is a completely misguided joke. Business cycle, global trade, FED, Congress, and even an aggregation of previous Presidents' policies are all more important to the economy than a current President.