The article claims that very few high deductable insurance companies reach the 80% or better payout rate. First off, I am not so sure that is correct, there was no resources or backup given for that claim, secondly, if that is true, then that means that I am being overcharged for my high deductable plan, and thus I will get a refund check (thats a good thing). But since my insurance is already sooo much cheaper than a "normal" plan, I find it hard to believe that I am being overcharged more than users of "normal" plans have been over charged.
Regardless, these articles are still based upon the theory that the pool of high deductable insurance customers is very small, and thats simply not true, it's in the millions of people and growing. If anything, if people are going to be required by law for not having insurance, many non-insured people will tend to get these inexpensive polices - because they are inexpensive and are the least objectionable type of policy for someone like me who doesn't like wasting money on something that they don't need. So we might very well see the pool of high deductable policies growing and thus eleminating the predictions made by the articles.