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I was going to add that into the OP, but I didn't want to mix two polls in on one thread...
Rasmussen has Biden +1 nationally, in a virtual deadlock.
In 2016, the last time populist Trump voters were involved in a major way, Rasmussen was only off by 0.4%.
GOP turnout for the midterms rivaled that of 2016.
Trump has no special turn out powers.