YouGov Biden +11 his largest YouGov lead yet

[W_Heisenberg]

Because there's an ideological shift in nearly half the country toward right wing authoritarianism and a state run mouthpiece in the form of Fox News. Little things like an out-of-control pandemic, an imploded economy and an increasingly dismantled postal service aren't going to cut through those.

I'm afraid you are correct.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

View attachment 67291799

This says it all.

 

[Drawdown]

On the opening day of the Democratic National Convention, former Vice President Joe Biden, bolstered by the selection of California Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate, has surged to an 11-point lead over President Trump, according to a Yahoo News/YouGov poll. It is Biden’s largest margin to date.

For months, Biden’s margin hovered in the high single digits. But according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov survey, which was conducted Aug. 14 and 15, Trump’s faltering coronavirus response and unpopular crusade against universal mail-in voting have further weakened his standing, propelling Biden to his first double-digit lead of the campaign.

Among registered voters, Biden now outpaces Trump 49 percent to 38 percent. Among likely voters, Biden is ahead 50 percent to 41 percent. In comparison, Hillary Clinton led Trump by an average of less than 3 percentage points right before the 2016 conventions.

New Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows Biden ahead of Trump by 11 points among registered voters — his largest lead yet


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Yahoo outsource that online poll to Soros? Way outside what anybody else is showing these days.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Do you have a reading deficiency lol? I said I was quoting polls conducted in the same or later timeframe than the CNN poll. You are quoting older polls. Lots has happened since they were conducted.

Firms can't redo polls every three or four days, that's ridiculous.

You claimed that the CNN poll was an outlier, when a slew of polls conducted several days earlier had Biden leading in the +3-+7 range.

 

[NWRatCon]

It continues to astound me how incapable some people are of reading or understanding polling. FiveThirtyEight provides a daily update with quality rating of polls. Polls Policy And FAQs Yesterday they ranged from Biden +7 to Biden +16, averaging (weighted) +8.4. Relying on RCP or any particular poll is just idiotologic (as is RCP, as they have no quality control).

When the average +/- is 3.5-4%, assume the low number is (-) and the upper number is (+). Pay attention to if they are listed as RV, LV, A (Registered voters, Likely voters, and All). Likely voters is a wildly volatile and subjective analysis as the definition is variable. Biden is AVERAGING over 50% among Registered and likely voters. THAT is a number to pay attention to.

 

[George50]

Yahoo outsource that online poll to Soros? Way outside what anybody else is showing these days.

Actually it’s right in line with the top rated ABC/Washington Post poll.


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[ReubenSherr]

Actually it’s right in line with the top rated ABC/Washington Post poll.

Lol the top rated ABC poll, rated by ABC.

 

[George50]

Firms can't redo polls every three or four days, that's ridiculous.

You claimed that the CNN poll was an outlier, when a slew of polls conducted several days earlier had Biden leading in the +3-+7 range.

The polls you refer to don’t reflect the bump Biden got from picking Harris and Trump’s attacks on her. Also more people are upset with Trump’s attacks on mail in voting as time goes on. At this point I’m focused on the post Harris polls. Go ahead and live in the past if you want.


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[George50]

Lol the top rated ABC poll, rated by ABC.

Lol of course again you somehow think math is biased. The polls are rated with objective formulas. ABC is not the only A+ poll. If you read on you will see that ABC was biased towards Republicans in the 2017 to 2019 period. Here’s a link that shows how the polls fared in 2017-2019.

The State Of The Polls, 2019 | FiveThirtyEight

In the article if you scroll down you will see a section that starts with:

“Which pollsters have been most accurate in recent elections?

Although it can be dangerous to put too much stock in the performance of a pollster in a single election cycle — it takes dozens of polls to reliably assess a pollster’s accuracy — it’s nonetheless worth briefly remarking on the recent performance of some of the more prolific ones. Below, you’ll find the average error, statistical bias and a calculation we call Advanced Plus-Minus (basically, how the pollster’s average error compares to other pollsters’ in the same election), for pollsters with at least five polls in our database for the 2017-19 cycle. Note that negative Advanced Plus-Minus scores are good; they indicate that a firm’s polls were more accurate than others in the same races.

How prolific pollsters have fared in recent elections
Advanced Plus-Minus scores and other metrics for pollsters who conducted at least five surveys for the 2017-19 cycle, in FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings database”



Below that is a table sorted by Advanced Plus-Minus which is basically, how the pollster’s average error compares to other pollsters’ in the same election. If you look you will see that the bias for the ABC poll was slight but towards Republicans during the period. In fact most of the top rated polls were biased towards Republicans. Towards the bottom you will see some lower ranked polls that are heavily biased one way or the other.

Contrary to your viewpoint that everything is partisan the polls ratings are all based on sensible objective mathematical criteria designed to try to identify the most accurate polls based on how they have performed in the past.


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[NWRatCon]

Lol of course again you somehow think math is biased. The polls are rated with objective formulas. ABC is not the only A+ poll. If you read on you will see that ABC was biased towards Republicans in the 2017 to 2019 period. Here’s a link that shows how the polls fared in 2017-2019. ....

Thanks, George, for providing consistent, sourced, and reliable information.

I'm going to reiterate a point I've made in the past (numerous times). Polling is, by its very nature, subjective. Analysts (at least the good ones) start with that premise and try to eliminate bias in the data as much as possible.

Even those decisions, however, include some bias - for example, how much "weight" to give to a particular contingent of the electorate, or how to define a "likely voter" - and thus may introduce another error. ABC's polling experience, as you pointed out, reflected an overemphasis on Republican voters, so skewed the results. Competent pollsters adjust to avoid skew. Partisan pollsters (e.g., Rassmussen) do not, and indeed, may emphasize it. Every election cycle introduces new complications and considerations. This cycle, especially so.

Fivethirtyeight is a rational and reliable analytical source. They aggregate polls, but also weight them by reliability. That particular step is crucial. No one is as robust, analytically, as Fivethirtyeight. I trust their data and analysis.

 

[RAMOSS]

Following the national polls is a recipe for madness.

-Cardinal, a guy who says...and believes...that national polls aren't important, but is totally following the national polls anyway for the same reason we lick our chapped lips even though we know doing so is making the chapped lips worse.

Me, I am following the polls in the swing states. That's more important that national polls.

 

[George50]

Me, I am following the polls in the swing states. That's more important that national polls.

No doubt the swing states are the most important but only because of the electoral college. It does seem kind of stupid to have every election hang solely on the whims of a handful of states.

FiveThirtyEight has 4 of them on their front page. You can also link to any state from there. As of tonight the four are all in the Biden column ranging from +3.4 to +7.3.


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[ReubenSherr]

The polls you refer to don’t reflect the bump Biden got from picking Harris and Trump’s attacks on her. Also more people are upset with Trump’s attacks on mail in voting as time goes on. At this point I’m focused on the post Harris polls. Go ahead and live in the past if you want.

You can't call a poll an "outlier" when 5-6 other polls, released days earlier, had similar results.

You seem to be obsessed with 538, so power to you.

I will use RCP.

 

[MTAtech]

You can't call a poll an "outlier" when 5-6 other polls, released days earlier, had similar results.

You seem to be obsessed with 538, so power to you.

I will use RCP.

 

[ReubenSherr]

View attachment 67292079

Not too different from 4 years ago, around this time.

The CNN poll was clearly not an outlier.