Yet another climate reconstruction confirms warming. (1 Viewer)

[Threegoofs]

This time, its a reconfirmation of Mann's seminal "hockey stick' work, looking back about two milennia and showing that the current temperature is much higher than any past temp (Marcott did similar work reconstructing global temps back to 11000 years ago) using multiple temperature proxies (pollen, tree rings, corals, sediments, etc etc) and proving, probably for the two dozenth time, that Mann's original work in 1998 holds up very well.

This one is the most comprehensive look at the issue ever, with much better data than Mann's paper originally had access to.

Most Comprehensive Paleoclimate Reconstruction Confirms Hockey Stick | ThinkProgress


If we look at Marcott's work, it sure looks like we are living in the warmest age since we domesticated animals and crops, and founded cities, and the rate of temperature rise is unprecedented.
Original abstract here: Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia : Nature Geoscience : Nature Publishing Group

I guarantee the fangs are going to show on popular denier blogs like WUWT, and guys around here will be skeptical of the prestigious journal, Nature Geoscience, it was published in (if its so good, why wasnt it published directly on a blog, huh?), but I'm fairly certain actual paleoclimatologists will consider this issue - the infamous hockey stick issue - to be proven beyond a doubt.

 

[code1211]

This time, its a reconfirmation of Mann's seminal "hockey stick' work, looking back about two milennia and showing that the current temperature is much higher than any past temp (Marcott did similar work reconstructing global temps back to 11000 years ago) using multiple temperature proxies (pollen, tree rings, corals, sediments, etc etc) and proving, probably for the two dozenth time, that Mann's original work in 1998 holds up very well.

This one is the most comprehensive look at the issue ever, with much better data than Mann's paper originally had access to.

Most Comprehensive Paleoclimate Reconstruction Confirms Hockey Stick | ThinkProgress


If we look at Marcott's work, it sure looks like we are living in the warmest age since we domesticated animals and crops, and founded cities, and the rate of temperature rise is unprecedented.
Original abstract here: Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia : Nature Geoscience : Nature Publishing Group

I guarantee the fangs are going to show on popular denier blogs like WUWT, and guys around here will be skeptical of the prestigious journal, Nature Geoscience, it was published in (if its so good, why wasnt it published directly on a blog, huh?), but I'm fairly certain actual paleoclimatologists will consider this issue - the infamous hockey stick issue - to be proven beyond a doubt.

Going through your links, I clicked on the buttons for the sources and eventually got to this one that seems like it's the basis of what you hockey players want us to think they relied on, but it doesn't look like a hockey stick.

Imagine that!

Also shows that the rise in temperature in the 100 years to 1150 looks about identical to the 100 years to 2000. No SUV's in 1150.

It also shows that the temperature, unlike a hockey stick, has increased and decreased even if we're only considering the second millennium, unlike the hockey stick, and that the increasing trend in temperature pre-dates the Industrial revolution.

Of course, it's only that fly by night group of weather people, NOAA. It probably has less credibility than your hockey team. Click on "Reconstructions", then click on the little graph.

Google Translate

 

[Threegoofs]

I do not think that means what you think it means.

It's a graph showing the effects of various forcings- solar, volcanic, etc. on temp the last 2000 years.

NOAA, of course, is completely on board with the hockey stick concept, as it is a standard and well accepted part of paleoclimatology.

 

[code1211]

I do not think that means what you think it means.

It's a graph showing the effects of various forcings- solar, volcanic, etc. on temp the last 2000 years.

NOAA, of course, is completely on board with the hockey stick concept, as it is a standard and well accepted part of paleoclimatology.

I'm having a little trouble finding the Hockey stick on the NOAA web site.

Could you please post the link.

What do you think climate forcings are in paleoclimatology?

 

[Deuce]

I'm having a little trouble finding the Hockey stick on the NOAA web site.

Could you please post the link.

What do you think climate forcings are in paleoclimatology?

Can you clarify the question? Climate forcings aren't a different concept in paleoclimatology.

 

[Threegoofs]

I'm having a little trouble finding the Hockey stick on the NOAA web site.

Could you please post the link.

What do you think climate forcings are in paleoclimatology?

Given the fact you just posted it, I don't think I will bother.

It's irrelevant what I think the forcings are. It's relevant what the best scientists in the world say they are.

 

[Lord of Planar]

I have a hard time not to laugh my ass off over this report. Tree rings can only be used as a temperature proxies when you can account for the other factors and adjust for them.

 

[Threegoofs]

I have a hard time not to laugh my ass off over this report. Tree rings can only be used as a temperature proxies when you can account for the other factors and adjust for them.

Once again, we are amazed at your ability to blithely dismiss the editors and reviewers at Nature Geoscience, and show us all how a guy who fixes computers knows much more about paleoclimatology than 78 scientists in 60 countries,

 

[code1211]

Can you clarify the question? Climate forcings aren't a different concept in paleoclimatology.

I know this. Threegoofs apparently does not.

 

[code1211]

Given the fact you just posted it, I don't think I will bother.

It's irrelevant what I think the forcings are. It's relevant what the best scientists in the world say they are.

As I thought. What you say is in the article is not there for you to post.

 

[davidtaylorjr]

This time, its a reconfirmation of Mann's seminal "hockey stick' work, looking back about two milennia and showing that the current temperature is much higher than any past temp (Marcott did similar work reconstructing global temps back to 11000 years ago) using multiple temperature proxies (pollen, tree rings, corals, sediments, etc etc) and proving, probably for the two dozenth time, that Mann's original work in 1998 holds up very well.

This one is the most comprehensive look at the issue ever, with much better data than Mann's paper originally had access to.

Most Comprehensive Paleoclimate Reconstruction Confirms Hockey Stick | ThinkProgress


If we look at Marcott's work, it sure looks like we are living in the warmest age since we domesticated animals and crops, and founded cities, and the rate of temperature rise is unprecedented.
Original abstract here: Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia : Nature Geoscience : Nature Publishing Group

I guarantee the fangs are going to show on popular denier blogs like WUWT, and guys around here will be skeptical of the prestigious journal, Nature Geoscience, it was published in (if its so good, why wasnt it published directly on a blog, huh?), but I'm fairly certain actual paleoclimatologists will consider this issue - the infamous hockey stick issue - to be proven beyond a doubt.

Even though we have been in a temp decline the last 15 or so years? Hmm.... In fact, we have had more rain where I live, and temperatures are about 10 degrees less than normal for this time of year....hmm.....

 

[Threegoofs]

Even though we have been in a temp decline the last 15 or so years? Hmm.... In fact, we have had more rain where I live, and temperatures are about 10 degrees less than normal for this time of year....hmm.....

Not true. Warmest decade ever last decade.

And your weather isn't world climate, FYI.

 

[Lord of Planar]

Once again, we are amazed at your ability to blithely dismiss the editors and reviewers at Nature Geoscience, and show us all how a guy who fixes computers knows much more about paleoclimatology than 78 scientists in 60 countries,

OK, you tell me how they are able to accurately assess temperature from tree rings and pollen? That is the majority of what they used and both are very inaccurate unless you can account for all other variables that affect them.

 

[Threegoofs]

OK, you tell me how they are able to accurately assess temperature from tree rings and pollen? That is the majority of what they used and both are very inaccurate unless you can account for all other variables that affect them.

I would, but I'm childishly ignoring you.

But you might want to read about oxygen isotopes and corals and boreholes and lake and ocean sediments and the entire host of proxies that are used to estimate paleo-temperatures and consider getting an advanced degree and doing your own friggin research before you pretend to be able to criticize the methods that hundreds of scientists who specialize in this area find completely appropriate.

 

[Lord of Planar]

I would, but I'm childishly ignoring you.

But you might want to read about oxygen isotopes and corals and boreholes and lake and ocean sediments and the entire host of proxies that are used to estimate paleo-temperatures and consider getting an advanced degree and doing your own friggin research before you pretend to be able to criticize the methods that hundreds of scientists who specialize in this area find completely appropriate.

I have read such things. I correctly stated they are not very accurate. Even ice cores aren't very accurate. The whole notion that we can distinguish a hockey stick, the way it's done, is simply putting the lego together the way we want.

O18 in ice is the best indication we have. These other methods measure O18 as well, but once in the water, with longer equalization times than the atmosphere... Temperatures proxies in pollen that vary in temperature as to when such water is absorbed...

Sorry, there is no real accurate method to see past global temperatures. Core ice is the most accurate we have, and it's pretty disputable too.

 

[Threegoofs]

I have read such things. I correctly stated they are not very accurate. Even ice cores aren't very accurate. The whole notion that we can distinguish a hockey stick, the way it's done, is simply putting the lego together the way we want.

O18 in ice is the best indication we have. These other methods measure O18 as well, but once in the water, with longer equalization times than the atmosphere... Temperatures proxies in pollen that vary in temperature as to when such water is absorbed...

Sorry, there is no real accurate method to see past global temperatures. Core ice is the most accurate we have, and it's pretty disputable too.

Again, the best scientists in the world disagree with you.

You remind me of a high schooler who has a great argument why 'X' can not be true because of 'Y' yet 'X' is plainly obvious to all.

 

[Lord of Planar]

Again, the best scientists in the world disagree with you.

You remind me of a high schooler who has a great argument why 'X' can not be true because of 'Y' yet 'X' is plainly obvious to all.

More personal insults?

O18 to ice is a simple process. With plants, comes growing season. Flowers tend to blossom by sun hour changes, which change over time with the obliquity, and precession of the earth The eccentricity will also play an effect for how much water evaporates from the oceans. This adds complication to the temperature at which the water was vaporized into the atmosphere. You are trying to tell me that a smaller slice of seasonal data is as good or better than ice core data which is an accumulation of year round precipitation and evaporation.

Think about what you are saying.

 

[Threegoofs]

Personal insult? No.

It's reality. You're trying to prove on the back of an envelope why the entire structure of climate science is wrong, and why your scribbling a are better than the AMerican Association for the Advancement of Science, and how your kitchen table figurings trump NASA,NOAA and virtually every climate researcher and biologist in the world.

Maybe you're some kind of closet genius. But until you get published, I'm sticking with the guys who know.

 

[MoSurveyor]

A primer on O16/O18 ratios ...

Paleoclimatology: The Oxygen Balance : Feature Articles

 

[Lord of Planar]

Personal insult? No.

It's reality. You're trying to prove on the back of an envelope why the entire structure of climate science is wrong, and why your scribbling a are better than the AMerican Association for the Advancement of Science, and how your kitchen table figurings trump NASA,NOAA and virtually every climate researcher and biologist in the world.

Maybe you're some kind of closet genius. But until you get published, I'm sticking with the guys who know.

If you say so.

I am pointing out that the most reliable O18 proxy comes from the ice. Other proxy sources of it contain more variables making it harder to get reliable reading correlations.

Care to show me wrong?

 

[Lord of Planar]

A primer on O16/O18 ratios ...

Paleoclimatology: The Oxygen Balance : Feature Articles

3 Goofs...

You should read this!

 

[MoSurveyor]

3 Goofs...

You should read this!

Have you?

 

[Lord of Planar]

Have you?

Yes, tonight, and similar works several years ago.

Did I miss something important?

Did you see how it describes having to account for other variable like in coral?

 

[jmotivator]

The best thing about statistical modeling is that if you go into it knowing what you are looking for you will always find it.

 

[LowDown]

This time, its a reconfirmation of Mann's seminal "hockey stick' work, looking back about two milennia and showing that the current temperature is much higher than any past temp (Marcott did similar work reconstructing global temps back to 11000 years ago) using multiple temperature proxies (pollen, tree rings, corals, sediments, etc etc) and proving, probably for the two dozenth time, that Mann's original work in 1998 holds up very well.

This one is the most comprehensive look at the issue ever, with much better data than Mann's paper originally had access to.

Most Comprehensive Paleoclimate Reconstruction Confirms Hockey Stick | ThinkProgress


If we look at Marcott's work, it sure looks like we are living in the warmest age since we domesticated animals and crops, and founded cities, and the rate of temperature rise is unprecedented.
Original abstract here: Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia : Nature Geoscience : Nature Publishing Group

I guarantee the fangs are going to show on popular denier blogs like WUWT, and guys around here will be skeptical of the prestigious journal, Nature Geoscience, it was published in (if its so good, why wasnt it published directly on a blog, huh?), but I'm fairly certain actual paleoclimatologists will consider this issue - the infamous hockey stick issue - to be proven beyond a doubt.

The hockey stick has long since jumped the shark. What does one do after having jumped the shark? One just goes on making a fool of oneself.

Climate change as a driver of public policy died years ago. Give it up.

If the climate changes we will adapt whatever happens, and we have no idea what will happen.