It is rising at 5.4 mm per year right now meaning that it will take 111 years to rise 4 feet. As such, it can be expected that it will rise 1 foot in the next 28 years. Nonetheless, this is presently a certainty based on the past 100 years.How high do you think the sea level will have risen by 2050?
If I had to guess, I would say about 4 inches (92.4 mm) at the current rate.
And what about her emails?! Priorities, people!yeah but what about benghazi
where do you think the sea level is raising at 5.4 mm per year?It is rising at 5.4 mm per year right now meaning that it will take 111 years to rise 4 feet. As such, it can be expected that it will rise 1 foot in the next 28 years. Nonetheless, this is presently a certainty based on the past 100 years.
Nonetheless, if you saw the video I put above, there are things happening in the Antartic region that have never been seen before and that scientists say could become "catalysts" for a higher degree of rising sea levels at a faster pace.
Nonetheless, 111 years in future is not a long time and it is guaranteed to occur and that means 4 feet of sea rise (guaranteed). You want to sit back and do nothing?
Nonsense. Extreme weather events have always occurred and always will. But the more the globe warms, the more extreme heat events we will see, and the warmer they'll tend to be. A heat wave of 104, like they've got going in the UK today, is bad enough, but how about 106? At the present pace of warming, in a few decades, 106 will be about the same distance above normal, then, as 104 is today. And that'll mean a lot more deaths.It is of fundamental importance to understand that the occurrence of extreme weather events can only ever be evidence in favor of the theory of man-made global warming. Weather events are never an argument against it because weather and climate are not the same.
Please keep this in mind.
We have a solid understanding of what's needed, and it's not even that hard. We just have to greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. And we now have the technology where solar energy is cheaper than coal and not much more expensive than natural gas. We have the tools and the know-how to do it. But there are people with a vested interest in making sure we don't.Solve climate change? LOL!
"Stop the Ice Age!!"
"Stop the great dinosaur extinction!!"
"Stop the tornado!!"
"We can do it if we vote democrat and stack the Supreme Court!!"
They can accurately say that the amount of energy being put out by the Sun have been declining since 1958,That the earth's surface is slowly warming is established fact. The term 'global warming' accurately describes it.
Meanwhile, the climate -- the 'normal' weather conditions in a given area -- is changing in some areas of the globe. One index is annual precipitation. This can be of importance in areas that provide water or that are heavily agricultural.
Finally, there's weather. It's what's happening at a given point at a given time: sunshine, clouds, rain, mist, fog, snow, hail, sleet and what have you.
When one looks for a cause of global warming, it's necessary to rule out forces which do not correlate well with observations. One excellent correlation which is accurately measured is the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere. As other forces are ruled out, the increase in carbon dioxide as the culprit becomes more and more certain.
Regards, stay safe 'n well 'n hydrated.
They can accurately say that the amount of energy being put out by the Sun have been declining since 1958,
but that does not tell the whole story.
Global Dimming and Brightening
Effective laws that reduced aerosol emissions, allowed a higher percentage of the available sunlight to reach the ground.
The brightening phase from ~1985 to ~2010, increased the energy reaching the ground by as much or more than the imbalance
from the added greenhouse gasses.
It is not that CO2 does not contribute to the energy imbalance, but it is not the only player.
No, we don't. What we do know is that reducing GHG is not sufficient.We have a solid understanding of what's needed,
Someone has been lying to you.and it's not even that hard. We just have to greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Not when you take everything into the cost analysis. It's more expensive than any fossil fuel.And we now have the technology where solar energy is cheaper than coal and not much more expensive than natural gas.
You have been drinking the Kool-Aid. Solar is a fringe technology because of its many drawbacks and not because anyone is conspiring to keep it in check.We have the tools and the know-how to do it. But there are people with a vested interest in making sure we don't.
We have a lot of posters like Mina, above, who have been told a pretty story. The biggest lie is that all we need to do is stop producing carbon dioxide. The science says otherwise, yet they follow the story and not the science. Reality is not so tidy.They can accurately say that the amount of energy being put out by the Sun have been declining since 1958,
but that does not tell the whole story.
Global Dimming and Brightening
Effective laws that reduced aerosol emissions, allowed a higher percentage of the available sunlight to reach the ground.
The brightening phase from ~1985 to ~2010, increased the energy reaching the ground by as much or more than the imbalance
from the added greenhouse gasses.
It is not that CO2 does not contribute to the energy imbalance, but it is not the only player.
Is it? We know that it is not sufficient to explain the observed changes.It is not the only factor, but appears to be the major one.
We do.No, we don't.
It is.What we do know is that reducing GHG is not sufficient.
You're incorrect.Someone has been lying to you.
We are.We are not even certain it would have a measurable impact.
It isn't. Taking the full cost, it's cheaper than coal.Not when you take everything into the cost analysis. It's more expensive than any fossil fuel.
Intermittency is an issue, and the full-cost calculations take that into account. There will need to be some combination of storage, long-distance transmission, and quick-reacting dark-sky generation options, like nuclear, to deal with that issue.Even worse is the unreliability. At best solar is useful for only about 2/3 of daylight hours. Even then, it drops sharply on cloudy days and is irregular and unreliable due to passing clouds.
I haven't.You have been drinking the Kool-Aid.
It isn't. You're basically 20 years behind on your rhetoric.Solar is a fringe technology because of its many drawbacks and not because anyone is conspiring to keep it in check.
Why? Do you imagine it would be an interesting story?All that said, I would love to hear your personal experience installing and using a solar system for your home.
I didn't say that. Reread. You're bashing on a straw man.We have a lot of posters like Mina who have been told a pretty story. The biggest lie is that all we need to do is stop producing carbon dioxide.
It's close enough. The observed big-picture changes, in terms of average global temperature increase, have been very close to what was projected way back in the late 1980's and early 1990's based on the hypothesis that greenhouse gas emissions would cause warming.Is it? We now know that it is not sufficient to explain the observed changes.
We have a number of working models. None are perfect, but that's true in all of science all the time.We do not yet have a working model.
We can work on such details while tackling the big-picture stuff. Of course, some hope that the "let's make the perfect the enemy of the good" approach can derail action. If people believe they need a perfect model and complete knowledge of all factors before acting, they'll NEVER act, and that's precisely the goal for those trying to enshrine the current status quo for those who have a vested interest in it.That's a major problem.
That's a bit like saying, "rather than wasting my time on diet and exercise to deal with my growing obesity problem, I'm going to focus on installing one of those automated chairs on my staircase, and maybe buy myself a littler scooter to get around on out in public.... maybe also some sort of device to wipe my ass for me, since I can't really reach any more. Adapting to those changes has got to be easier than diet and exercise!"We can focus on adapting to the changes much more effectively than trying to prevent change.
It appears so, likely a majority contributor, but some of that depends on the accuracy of some of the assumptions.Hi, longview.
It is not the only factor, but appears to be the major one.
Regards, stay safe 'n well 'n remember the Big 5.
ERGO....We should do NOTHING to limit or mitigate the carbon we are throwing up into the atmosphere. Admit it..that is the actual premise of your argument. Yeah.....OK.It appears so, likely a majority contributor, but some of that depends on the accuracy of some of the assumptions.
Remember there is not a test that can verify how much warming each added unit of CO2 will actually cause.
If the forcing assumptions of 2XCO2 causes an imbalance of 3.71 W m-2 is correct, then greenhouse gasses added since 1750,
would account for almost 100% of the observed warming, but that leave nothing for the known natural warming,
and the afore mentioned known brightening.
We should be addressing our actual much more pressing problems, and not focus of CO2.ERGO....We should do NOTHING to limit or mitigate the carbon we are throwing up into the atmosphere. Admit it..that is the actual premise of your argument. Yeah.....OK.
The science does not back you up. Simply reducing CO2 is insufficient, nor is it simply or easily done.We do. It is.
Coal is both less expensive and more reliable.You're incorrect. We are. It isn't. Taking the full cost, it's cheaper than coal.
It's why the full cost calculations make coal more cost-efficient. The cost of off-hour supply far exceeds the cost of the basic unit. The battery backup comes with an environmental impact comparable to the coal plant. Gas is far more eco-friendly.Intermittency is an issue, and the full-cost calculations take that into account.
There is the word. The storage issue is an unsolved engineering problem.There will need to be some combination of storage,
Another non-trivial engineering problem.long-distance transmission,
I give you nuclear as an option.and quick-reacting dark-sky generation options, like nuclear, to deal with that issue.
That would be you. You are claiming the same things that were thrown around at the turn of the century. They didn't work then either.It isn't. You're basically 20 years behind on your rhetoric.
If you had personal experience it would have more value than you simply repeating the lies you were told.Why? Do you imagine it would be an interesting story?
You said, "We just have to greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions." So, exactly that.I didn't say that.
I am bashing your understanding of climate science, and current or near-future solar power technology.Reread. You're bashing on a straw man.
It's not in the same ballpark.It's close enough.
Sure, there were people in the 1980s that said there was no hurry, that global warming was not urgent. They were right.The observed big-picture changes, in terms of average global temperature increase, have been very close to what was projected way back in the late 1980's and early 1990's based on the hypothesis that greenhouse gas emissions would cause warming.
They are all built around a core of fossil fuel power for the next two generations.We have a number of working models.
The big picture stuff would be something like an improved method for refrigeration. 1/3 of all electricity goes to cool something.None are perfect, but that's true in all of science all the time.
We can work on such details while tackling the big-picture stuff. Of course, some hope that the "let's make the perfect the enemy of the good" approach can derail action. If people believe they need a perfect model and complete knowledge of all factors before acting, they'll NEVER act, and that's precisely the goal for those trying to enshrine the current status quo for those who have a vested interest in it.
It's a bit like a dangerously obese person refusing to cut calories or exercise, because we still don't have a perfect model of human metabolism or all the factors that play into obesity. If that's the excuse you need to sit on the couch eating bon bons all day, I suppose it has its appeal, but in the meantime you'll be heading straight into an early grave, despite the fact the basic understanding of metabolism is more than enough to start making some effective changes.
That's a bit like saying, "rather than wasting my time on diet and exercise to deal with my growing obesity problem, I'm going to focus on installing one of those automated chairs on my staircase, and maybe buy myself a littler scooter to get around on out in public.... maybe also some sort of device to wipe my ass for me, since I can't really reach any more. Adapting to those changes has got to be easier than diet and exercise!"
Should is saying too much. However, it's a viable approach. Don't worry about reductions of dubious value and focus on dealing with the situation that we know that we have. Science tells us that we have time.ERGO....We should do NOTHING to limit or mitigate the carbon we are throwing up into the atmosphere. Admit it..that is the actual premise of your argument. Yeah.....OK.
It does.The science does not back you up
I didn't claim it was. Reread. Simply reducing CO2 is insufficient
Coal is more expensive.Coal is both less expensive and more reliable.
They don't.It's why the full cost calculations make coal more cost-efficient.
It can also be things like pump hydro. But, no, the environmental impact of the battery backup comes nowhere close to the coal plant.The cost of off-hour supply far exceeds the cost of the basic unit. The battery backup comes with an environmental impact comparable to the coal plant.
Than what?Gas is far more eco-friendly.
It isn't.There is the word. The storage issue is an unsolved engineering problem.
We're going to be facing non-trivial engineering problems either way. The ones associated with de-carbonizing the grid are easier to tackle, though, than the monumental tasks of reworking our civilization for much higher global temperatures.Another non-trivial engineering problem.
It's an ideal complement to intermittent supply, since it's compact, reliable, and can quickly be ramped up or down to meet load needs.I give you nuclear as an option.
You're spouting the talking points you picked up 20 years ago, since you haven't kept up with the changing landscape.That would be you. You are claiming the same things that were thrown around at the turn of the century. They didn't work then either.
No. If I claimed personal experience, it would have exactly the same value as all the other claims of personal experience online.... which is to say: none at all. We can all just invent personal anecdotes. The only thing that has value are things that are verifiable.If you had personal experience it would have more value than you simply repeating the lies you were told.
So, did you spot your error?You said, "We just have to greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions." So, exactly that.
It is.It's not in the same ballpark.
We've already had a hugely increased rate of extinction, which is an irreversible consequence of climate change. They thought we could drag our feet with no price for that, and it turns out they were disastrously incorrect in that gamble.Sure, there were people in the 1980s that said there was no hurry, that global warming was not urgent. They were right.
The actual scientists predicted, way back in the early 1990s, that we'd be seeing something on the order of 0.2 degrees of warming per decade, which is just what we've been seeing.The ones who claim we need to reduce GHG emissions were wrong and their predictions were off before we reached 2000.
You misunderstood. The models have a bunch of different assumptions.They are all built around a core of fossil fuel power for the next two generations.
Great. We can work on that. But the problem is with the bad-faith champions of the status quo, who are forever urging us to wait for that Deus Ex Machina, rather than to go to work with what we know will help. Again, it's like the increasingly obese guy sitting on his couch eating bon bons all day, because he can't be bothered to eat better and exercise. He holds out hope that someone is going to invent a pill that fixes the problem effortlessly. Every year we sit around waiting for an improved method of refrigeration (or waiting on nuclear fusion, or perpetual motion), while not taking steps with the tools already at our disposal, represents further needless suffering and death.The big picture stuff would be something like an improved method for refrigeration. 1/3 of all electricity goes to cool something.
In fact science only tells us when the problem may be utterly beyond our ability to mitigate. In the first place, Science is an exploration based in part on what is known, in part on what is predicted, in part what is hypothesized, in part on what is theorized. That is simply the way it is and the way it has always been. It is that way with all of Science. Yet we allow doctors to perform surgery based on Medical Science. We build things based on the Laws of Physics,Mathmatics and Mechanical Sciences. In no case do we simply stand there with our thumbs up our asses because in all of these fields of scientific endeavor we are STILL exploring.The science does not back you up. Simply reducing CO2 is insufficient, nor is it simply or easily done.
Should is saying too much. However, it's a viable approach. Don't worry about reductions of dubious value and focus on dealing with the situation that we know that we have. Science tells us that we have time.
Maybe some mitigation, but beyond our ability to stop. Even if there were no human activity there would still be climate change.In fact science only tells us when the problem may be utterly beyond our ability to mitigate.
OKIn the first place, Science is an exploration based in part on what is known, in part on what is predicted, in part what is hypothesized, in part on what is theorized. That is simply the way it is and the way it has always been. It is that way with all of Science. Yet we allow doctors to perform surgery based on Medical Science. We build things based on the Laws of Physics,Mathmatics and Mechanical Sciences. In no case do we simply stand there with our thumbs up our asses because in all of these fields of scientific endeavor we are STILL exploring.
On the contrary. My vote is to build a boat with an insulated bottom so that the frog's seven-times great-grandchildren can handle dangerous levels of heat when it arrives.Your vote is to toss us like frogs into a pot of cold water and simply stay there and boil as the burner is adjusted and the heat goes up. Your vote is to do nothing because it is not IN YOUR MIND settled. Got news for you....it is in nobody's mind settled. That which you make your big arguing point is neither here nor there.
Document.Meanwhile, we are enduring more frequent severe weather.
Midwestern water management by farmers is an issue in its own right.Mid-western farmers claim we can no longer kick the can down the road on drought followed by flood followed by drought followed by flood and the reductions in ground water and surface water.
I blame environmentalists. Forest maintenance helps prevent fires and environmentalists prevent useful clearing.The Western forests burn endlessly now. There is no longer a fire season. There is just FIRE. Famine increases and already plagues peoples around the globe to the point where it is a major geopolitical issue and your answer is.......let the heat of the burner continue to rise until the frog boils to death.
It has gotten to the point that IMO, you folks on your side of this discussion simply argue for the sake of arguing. Too much time on your hands.
Are we to say that this is just normal? That Humans have no blame for this? That we shouldn't do anything about it?
Well that's a lie.
Notice that the deniers who claim that there was plenty of time to deal with climate change in the 1980's are making the same claims today yet have no answer to the effects of the changes that have already manifested themselves other than the usual "build a wall around it or over it" SOMEDAY. Build a WALL somewhere has become their answer to any issue that they really don't have an answer for.
So what. That is not an argument for doing nothing.Maybe some mitigation, but beyond our ability to stop. Even if there were no human activity there would still be climate change.
If you didn't understand it the first time, you won't understand it the second.OK
Point?
Build a boat.....BUILD A BOAT????? WITH AN INSULATED BOTTOM???? Good luck with that. Who gets to board your boat? I realize that your BOAT is just a metaphor but since it is WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU ACTUALLY TALKING ABOUT?On the contrary. My vote is to build a boat with an insulated bottom so that the frog's seven-times great-grandchildren can handle dangerous levels of heat when it arrives.
Been making that argument since the 1980's by your own words in a different post. Did nothing since then....doing nothing now. Meanwhile the data actually shows us that the rate at which we are polluting our environment, most particularly by carbon's impact on the environment and the resultant impact on drought and deluge, drought and deluge is not sustainable. We are living ourselves right off the planet. So, is your solution a boat followed by an advanced ticket on a Musk starship to some other planet?How long do frogs live? Maybe it's seventeen-times great-grandchildren.
The point is that change is slow and we can adjust as it happens.
Nope....climate scientists have been saying for years that is the severity not the frequency that is the result of climate change.Document.
Do not allow one harsh season affect your disposition. I recall when we had more than 26 named tropical storms for the first time. Everyone said that hurricanes were getting more frequent. It turned out that advances in storm tracking was the reason for the increased numbers and storm frequency has actually decreased.
Midwestern water management by farmers is an issue in its own right.
of course you do.I blame environmentalists. Forest maintenance helps prevent fires and environmentalists prevent useful clearing.
Who is "WE".Famine is a political problem. We have enough food.
I can't believe that many are that dumb. I also can't believe they don't care. The opinions and ideas from most conservative lay persons are nothing more than driven by loyalty to party. They just want to own the libs..
Owning the libs is by far more important to these knuckle heads than leaving a clean planet to their children. Now that's a different story when it comes to the corporations and politicians bought by them. They are all about the money, and for sure, don't care. They know exactly what they are doing.
I aspire to excellence. Perfection is beyond us.You are a perfect example of what I'm talking about.
You are proof of that.Reason is lost on someone who purposely believes lies.
No one to do nothing. However, drastic action is not indicated.So what. That is not an argument for doing nothing.
False premise. I understood perfectly the first time.If you didn't understand it the first time, you won't understand it the second.
I will use a simpler metaphor.Build a boat.....BUILD A BOAT????? WITH AN INSULATED BOTTOM???? Good luck with that. Who gets to board your boat? I realize that your BOAT is just a metaphor but since it is WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU ACTUALLY TALKING ABOUT?
You keep saying that but it's not true. Drastic action was not needed 40 years ago and that has not changed.Been making that argument since the 1980's by your own words in a different post. Did nothing since then....doing nothing now.
This is the panicky lie that is often told. Science does not support itMeanwhile the data actually shows us that the rate at which we are polluting our environment, most particularly by carbon's impact on the environment and the resultant impact on drought and deluge, drought and deluge is not sustainable.
Not.We are living ourselves right off the planet.
It's one thing worth doing.So, is your solution a boat followed by an advanced ticket on a Musk starship to some other planet?
We are already doing it. Pollution is down sharply. GHG emissions are down sharply.Tell us what mitigation efforts would you support. Built a boat while being a metaphor, ain't gonna' get it done.
There have been doomsday predictions from the start. The inconvenient truth is that Al Gore was wrong.Nope....climate scientists have been saying for years that is the severity not the frequency that is the result of climate change.
It's clear that you don't know your climate science but in the area of agriculture, you are really clueless. Recall that these are Trump supporters. That's partly because your party has no interest in helping them in any way.Oh OK. So a drought and deluge characteristic to climate is better than the temperance that has been a key element of a great American resource, in fact a Strategic National Resource, the farm belt.
Close enough. Water shortages are much more affected by excessive irrigation. Depletion of groundwater is a much more serious and immediate problem than climate change.Are you trying to make the case that climate change has not had an impact on water shortages?
Don't need luck, only open minds.Good luck with that argument too
The planetary population, of course. We produce more food than we consume and can easily produce more.Who is "WE".
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