Would they have forced a shutdown in an election year?

[aberrant85]

The GOP lost seats in the last gov't shutdown, but that was in 1995-96, during a Presidential campaign. The memories were still fresh with voters that time around and they payed the price for their actions. This time around they at least remembered not to repeat that timing. The debt limit was extended in 2011 for two years to avoid an election year battle, and we are currently more than a year away from the next midterms, a political eternity.

The question is this: would the GOP have been strong enough in their conviction to wage this fight if they thought voters were watching closely? Or was part of their plan to have some wiggle room before the next election?

 

[AlabamaPaul]

The GOP lost seats in the last gov't shutdown, but that was in 1995-96, during a Presidential campaign. The memories were still fresh with voters that time around and they payed the price for their actions. This time around they at least remembered not to repeat that timing. The debt limit was extended in 2011 for two years to avoid an election year battle, and we are currently more than a year away from the next midterms, a political eternity.

The question is this: would the GOP have been strong enough in their conviction to wage this fight if they thought voters were watching closely? Or was part of their plan to have some wiggle room before the next election?

They actually gained two Senate seats in the '96 elections while losing a few in the House...

 

[aberrant85]

They actually gained two Senate seats in the '96 elections while losing a few in the House...

I stand corrected. Still, the main story was that Clinton won reelection at least in part thanks to the shutdown.

 

[sbrettt]

The GOP lost seats in the last gov't shutdown, but that was in 1995-96, during a Presidential campaign. The memories were still fresh with voters that time around and they payed the price for their actions. This time around they at least remembered not to repeat that timing. The debt limit was extended in 2011 for two years to avoid an election year battle, and we are currently more than a year away from the next midterms, a political eternity.

The question is this: would the GOP have been strong enough in their conviction to wage this fight if they thought voters were watching closely? Or was part of their plan to have some wiggle room before the next election?

Every poll should have not sure as an option.

 

[a351]

They likely would have stopped short of a shutdown for fear of repercussions, but a budget battle wagered with at least a portion of the health care law as potential collateral would have likely occurred in any scenario in order to highlight the flaws of the law and appease their own base.

 

[AlabamaPaul]

I stand corrected. Still, the main story was that Clinton won reelection at least in part thanks to the shutdown.

He won re-election because of the economy at the time which was not any of his doing. That was due to affordable personal computing devices stoking the internet explosion and the Y2K scare coming up...

 

[aberrant85]

He won re-election because of the economy at the time which was not any of his doing. That was due to affordable personal computing devices stoking the internet explosion and the Y2K scare coming up...

Right again. I am guilty of making a pat statement when in reality his reelection was based on an infinite number of factors, both within out of Clinton's control.

 

[AlabamaPaul]

Right again. I am guilty of making a pat statement when in reality his reelection was based on an infinite number of factors, both within out of Clinton's control.

Agreed...

 

[APACHERAT]

The GOP lost seats in the last gov't shutdown, but that was in 1995-96, during a Presidential campaign. The memories were still fresh with voters that time around and they payed the price for their actions. This time around they at least remembered not to repeat that timing. The debt limit was extended in 2011 for two years to avoid an election year battle, and we are currently more than a year away from the next midterms, a political eternity.

The question is this: would the GOP have been strong enough in their conviction to wage this fight if they thought voters were watching closely? Or was part of their plan to have some wiggle room before the next election?

"They" being the GOP ?

The Republicans in the House passed a budget, it was the Democrats in the Senate who rejected the budget which led to the bogus shutdown of government.

 

[year2late]

I would say with this crew of teavangelicals....ESPECIALLY in an election year.

 

[Perotista]

The GOP lost seats in the last gov't shutdown, but that was in 1995-96, during a Presidential campaign. The memories were still fresh with voters that time around and they payed the price for their actions. This time around they at least remembered not to repeat that timing. The debt limit was extended in 2011 for two years to avoid an election year battle, and we are currently more than a year away from the next midterms, a political eternity.

The question is this: would the GOP have been strong enough in their conviction to wage this fight if they thought voters were watching closely? Or was part of their plan to have some wiggle room before the next election?

If you go back and check, in a year in which President Clinton trounced Senator Dole, the GOP lost 2 house seats and gained 2 senate seats. The shutdown ended on 6 January 1996 I believe. So the November election was pretty much a wash. The Republicans went on to lose two more seats after the November election in the house in special elections and gain another senate seat later end. Consider the landslide Clinton won in 96, the Republicans in congress did excellent.

Americans have short memories and by the beginning of the year the shutdown will be forgotten by most except the die hards of each party. Other events and issues will have arisen to take the shutdown's place.

As for having a plan and some wiggle room, if the Republicans had a lick of common sense and a plan, they wouldn't have waged this battle in the first place. Any two bit politician that has been around the block would have known better.

 

[Rocketman]

yes and they should have. Continuing to run the country on credit just paying interest is asinine further eroding the middle class

 

[aberrant85]

"They" being the GOP ?

The Republicans in the House passed a budget, it was the Democrats in the Senate who rejected the budget which led to the bogus shutdown of government.

Hey Apacherat, I got a question. Is the shutdown affecting defense contractors?

 

[APACHERAT]

Hey Apacherat, I got a question. Is the shutdown affecting defense contractors?

Yes they are.

 

[molten_dragon]

The GOP lost seats in the last gov't shutdown, but that was in 1995-96, during a Presidential campaign. The memories were still fresh with voters that time around and they payed the price for their actions. This time around they at least remembered not to repeat that timing. The debt limit was extended in 2011 for two years to avoid an election year battle, and we are currently more than a year away from the next midterms, a political eternity.

The question is this: would the GOP have been strong enough in their conviction to wage this fight if they thought voters were watching closely? Or was part of their plan to have some wiggle room before the next election?

Not a chance in hell. The majority of republicans had to know this was going to blow back on them more than Obama. They did it now because they know that there's enough time for it to blow over before next year's midterms.

 

[aberrant85]

Not a chance in hell. The majority of republicans had to know this was going to blow back on them more than Obama. They did it now because they know that there's enough time for it to blow over before next year's midterms.

This NYT article suggests the public will remember. I'm not so sure about that, but I can imagine if after this is resolved that the Democratic challengers keep holding this over the GOP's head they might sway voters.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/13/us/politics/gops-hopes-to-take-senate-are-dimming.html?hp&_r=0

 

[aberrant85]

Yes they are.

Is the sequester hurting them?

 

[APACHERAT]

Is the sequester hurting them?

Why not start a new poll asking the question ?

Will you ever run out of ideas for conducting polls on the DP ?

 

[DaveFagan]

The GOP lost seats in the last gov't shutdown, but that was in 1995-96, during a Presidential campaign. The memories were still fresh with voters that time around and they payed the price for their actions. This time around they at least remembered not to repeat that timing. The debt limit was extended in 2011 for two years to avoid an election year battle, and we are currently more than a year away from the next midterms, a political eternity.

The question is this: would the GOP have been strong enough in their conviction to wage this fight if they thought voters were watching closely? Or was part of their plan to have some wiggle room before the next election?

Yes! I believe it would have been the same in an election. This GOP shutdown is like the GOP has asked to play Russian Roulette, put six bullets in a six-shooter and said, "I'll go first." That mentality doesn't belong in Congress. The biggest problem is that type mentality is comfortable there. Grandstanders. Not just with the GOP.

 

[radcen]

Generally, they (House and Senate, even the Presidency) do the unpleasant things right after an election, precisely because they know the average voter has the attention span of a rock. We have shown to forget that unpleasant stuff by the time the next election rolls around.

I don't get the GOP's strategy on this one, but I do believe they timed it to what they believe will be their benefit.