I am not talking about replacing payroll taxes or corporate income taxes with a sales tax. I’m only proposing to replace the individual income tax which for 2019 was $1.48 Trillion.
Now, to get an estimate of what sales tax rate would raise this amount, let’s extrapolate from the sales tax revenues in my state – Texas. In 2019, the state of Texas raised $34 billion from a population of 29 million with a state sales tax rate of 6.25%. If we extrapolate that to a US population of 328 million, and a national sales tax rate of 25% we get $1.54 Trillion, which is more than the US raised from personal income tax. Texas does not tax groceries or medicines. But they may tax other items deemed essential. So, tack on say an extra 5% to cover those, and you wind up with a national sales tax rate of 30%.
That may seem high, but when you consider that it’s only on non-essential goods and services, and that it’s compensated by the fact that individuals would not pay any income tax, it’s actually pretty good. My 2019 income tax for example was about $20,000. And I know for sure I did not spend anything close to $66,000 on non-essential goods and services. So, I would have done a lot better under a 30% national sales tax than under the current income tax. I think most people would. Those who don’t do so well are those who spend frivolously on things they don’t really need. That’s not low-income people.