With congress now split between the parties which party stands to gain or lose seats next election?

[bongsaway]

With congress now split between the parties which party stands to gain or lose seats next election?

Will the R's gain seats in the house or will dems add to their majority?

Will the R's lose seats in the senate since they have more to defend this election than the dems?

 

[Mycroft]

With congress now split between the parties which party stands to gain or lose seats next election?

Will the R's gain seats in the house or will dems add to their majority?

Will the R's lose seats in the senate since they have more to defend this election than the dems?

Premature to be worrying about that right now. There will be a LOT of things happening in the political world this year and, with the inevitable spin from all sides, viewpoints on all sides will be shattered, forced to be reckoned with and denied.

If things calm down in mid-2020, ask your questions again.

 

[Perotista]

With congress now split between the parties which party stands to gain or lose seats next election?

Will the R's gain seats in the house or will dems add to their majority?

Will the R's lose seats in the senate since they have more to defend this election than the dems?

I normally don't start my forecast until a year out from the election. The house, unlike 2018 where the GOP at 62 seats at risk of switching to 7 for the Democrats, for 2020 an early, very early glance show around 20 seats at risk for the GOP of switching with the Democrats having 25. Either party could gain or lose up to 5 seats. But this is always dynamic and changes all the time.

Senate, Alabama should be a Republican gain, Jones is just keeping the seat hot until 2020. Colorado and Arizona probably would go Democratic. With the right candidate, the Democrats have a shot in Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina. Again, this is as of today, not almost two years into the future. I'd say a net gain of one to four. Most likely two.

But the above also depends on the important answers to will Trump run for reelection or not and whom the Democrats nominate. Another Hillary Clinton type candidate even if Trump runs could mean Colorado and Arizona remain Republican along with the other three. A fresh young face from flyover country ala Obama who can attract
independent voters in the way Hillary couldn't, would probably mean a landslide and take over of the senate.

 

[trouble13]

I normally don't start my forecast until a year out from the election. The house, unlike 2018 where the GOP at 62 seats at risk of switching to 7 for the Democrats, for 2020 an early, very early glance show around 20 seats at risk for the GOP of switching with the Democrats having 25. Either party could gain or lose up to 5 seats. But this is always dynamic and changes all the time.

Senate, Alabama should be a Republican gain, Jones is just keeping the seat hot until 2020. Colorado and Arizona probably would go Democratic. With the right candidate, the Democrats have a shot in Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina. Again, this is as of today, not almost two years into the future. I'd say a net gain of one to four. Most likely two.

But the above also depends on the important answers to will Trump run for reelection or not and whom the Democrats nominate. Another Hillary Clinton type candidate even if Trump runs could mean Colorado and Arizona remain Republican along with the other three. A fresh young face from flyover country ala Obama who can attract
independent voters in the way Hillary couldn't, would probably mean a landslide and take over of the senate.

I think the danger for Democrats is that their will be a temptation to nominate a Walter Mondale type. Someone who is too far left for the rest of the country to support.

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[Helix]

it's difficult to predict at this point. it depends a lot on how pissed off anti-Trumpists are in 2020.

 

[Rich2018]

I think the danger for Democrats is that their will be a temptation to nominate a Walter Mondale type. Someone who is too far left for the rest of the country to support.

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You need to read the economist Hotelling.


"Hotelling's law is an observation in economics that in many markets it is rational for producers to make their products as similar as possible. This is also referred to as the principle of minimum differentiation as well as Hotelling's linear city model."


Basically you move as close to your opponent as you can...all the votes to your left will naturally come to you. If Trump acting the fool and appealing to the right wing of the country, a centrist candidate should wipe the floor with him come election day.

 

[Perotista]

I think the danger for Democrats is that their will be a temptation to nominate a Walter Mondale type. Someone who is too far left for the rest of the country to support.

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That is an ever present danger.

 

[CriticalThought]

The Republicans are in a precarious position. They are fighting to defend their right to partisan gerrymander. If they lose big in 2020, it could be devastating to the GOP.