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Wisconsin Primary thread

poweRob

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Polls close in an hour. I thought I'd get the talking started...

 

Helix

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i'm curious to see how Sanders does.
 

Chomsky

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I knew someone would come through for us, with a thread!

Thanks, Rob! :cheers:

I'm going along with the conventional wisdom: I'm predicting a Cruz win.

I'm also predicting an inflection point in the campaign: Trump will not make 1237 (I've been predicting this likelihood, predicated upon Wisconsin, for several weeks).

I'm also going to predict a true contested convention, with a the very strong likelihood of Mr. Trump getting the boot. Once that happens, the nomination is anybody's, and I wouldn't doubt the delegates go for Spkr Ryan after multiple votes, because I don't see the delegates (who are party elite insiders for the most part) believing they will win with Trump or Cruz. Also, Ryan is the one guy that's acceptable to all GOP groups (except the Trumpers, for whom no one but Trump is likely acceptable).
 

Captain America

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The Donald's losing steam. Awwww.....

Must be that non-stop pace and heavy bullet-proof vest.

Really, here in my neck of the woods, the only notable excitement seems to be coming from the Berner's. I think Bernie is gonna spank Hillary if the rest of the state is even close to the folks around here. All the other candidates are just ho-hum. No buzz in the air. Know what I mean Vern?
 

Fiddytree

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CNN reports that only 32% of Republican voters are "angry" in comparison with a larger number who are "very dissatisfied." In the same exit poll, 51% of Republican voters feel betrayed by Republican leaders, 49% do not. CNN argues that this looks good for Cruz voters, because they are "less angry."

What that translates to is that they are very angry, very bitter people, but they haven't reduced themselves to injecting cocaine into their eyeballs, arming themselves with pitchforks and crossbows with flaming arrows. That's the difference between a Cruz voter and Trump voter.
 

SocialD

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Harleys , unfortunately for Milwaukee are now headquartered in Kansas City, and of course a lot of their accessories and merchandise are made in China now.
 

Chomsky

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The Donald's losing steam. Awwww.....

Must be that non-stop pace and heavy bullet-proof vest.

Really, here in my neck of the woods, the only notable excitement seems to be coming from the Berner's. I think Bernie is gonna spank Hillary if the rest of the state is even close to the folks around here. All the other candidates are just ho-hum. No buzz in the air. Know what I mean Vern?
Yeah, but WI varies a bit:

Milwaukee != Madison != Hayward

(But they're all places I like)
 

Fiddytree

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I knew someone would come through for us, with a thread!

Thanks, Rob! :cheers:

I'm going along with the conventional wisdom: I'm predicting a Cruz win.

I'm also predicting an inflection point in the campaign: Trump will not make 1237 (I've been predicting this likelihood, predicated upon Wisconsin, for several weeks).

I'm also going to predict a true contested convention, with a the very strong likelihood of Mr. Trump getting the boot. Once that happens, the nomination is anybody's, and I wouldn't doubt the delegates go for Spkr Ryan after multiple votes, because I don't see the delegates (who are party elite insiders for the most part) believing they will win with Trump or Cruz. Also, Ryan is the one guy that's acceptable to all GOP groups (except the Trumpers, for whom no one but Trump is likely acceptable).

You know, at some point, Republicans need to stop relying on Paul Ryan to bail them out on every problem they have. When Romney was having problems seeming authentic with angry Tea Partiers, they thought bringing up a slick young face would help. It didn't. When Ryan was the intellectual leader in the midst of dysfunction in Congress, Ryan was looked to to develop a solution for the budget and immigration. They didn't like what he sold them and threw his ideas on the floor like an infant not liking the baby food that night. When Boehner was becoming the leader the Tea Partiers loathed, they begged him to become Speaker. He reluctantly agreed. The guy's been Speaker of the House for less than 6 months and already you have a number of Republicans wanting him to save them from their own ineptitude to run for President of the United States without having run during the primary.
 

OpportunityCost

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I'm hoping Kloppenburg goes down in flames again.

No districts reporting yet.
 

Chomsky

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CNN reports that only 32% of Republican voters are "angry" in comparison with a larger number who are "very dissatisfied." In the same exit poll, 51% of Republican voters feel betrayed by Republican leaders, 49% do not. CNN argues that this looks good for Cruz voters, because they are "less angry."

What that translates to is that they are very angry, very bitter people, but they haven't reduced themselves to injecting cocaine into their eyeballs, arming themselves with pitchforks and crossbows with flaming arrows. That's the difference between a Cruz voter and Trump voter.
When the T-Party darling's supporters are held-up as paragons of civility in relation to yours, you just might have some troubles! :mrgreen:
 

Chomsky

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Harleys , unfortunately for Milwaukee are now headquartered in Kansas City, and of course a lot of their accessories and merchandise are made in China now.
Really!

When did the move to KS occur?

It had to be pretty recently.
 

Chomsky

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You know, at some point, Republicans need to stop relying on Paul Ryan to bail them out on every problem they have. When Romney was having problems seeming authentic with angry Tea Partiers, they thought bringing up a slick young face would help. It didn't. When Ryan was the intellectual leader in the midst of dysfunction in Congress, Ryan was looked to to develop a solution for the budget and immigration. They didn't like what he sold them and threw his ideas on the floor like an infant not liking the baby food that night. When Boehner was becoming the leader the Tea Partiers loathed, they begged him to become Speaker. He reluctantly agreed. The guy's been Speaker of the House for less than 6 months and already you have a number of Republicans wanting him to save them from their own ineptitude to run for President of the United States without having run during the primary.
Hah!

The way you led with that opening sentence gave me a chuckle, but you're absolutely right Fiddy!
 

Captain America

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Yeah, but WI varies a bit:

Milwaukee != Madison != Hayward

(But they're all places I like)

No doubt. Just 15 minutes west of Milwaukee and less than an hour east of Madison you have Waukesha County. Big time hard-right leanings.

But we're ALL Packer fans.
 

Chomsky

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No doubt. Just 15 minutes west of Milwaukee and less than an hour east of Madison you have Waukesha County. Big time hard-right leanings.

But we're ALL Packer fans.
Yeah, I heard they like them in Green Bay too. :mrgreen:
 

Fiddytree

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Hah!

The way you led with that opening sentence gave me a chuckle, but you're absolutely right Fiddy!

And I say that with dismay, because they have absolutely no shortage of talent in the party. That's a charge you're supposed to be able to cleanly place on the Democratic Party, who has overwhelmingly neglected fostering a talent pool over the last decade. But no, this is the conversation we are having about the Republican Party--the same party who just gave over a dozen of its best politicians, of past and present, to run for office.
 

Captain America

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I think we pretty much predicted this accurately.

Cruz and Sanders will take WI tonight.
 

Chomsky

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And I say that with dismay, because they have absolutely no shortage of talent in the party. That's a charge you're supposed to be able to cleanly place on the Democratic Party, who has overwhelmingly neglected fostering a talent pool over the last decade. But no, this is the conversation we are having about the Republican Party--the same party who just gave over a dozen of its best politicians, of past and present, to run for office.
Let's face it: Since the Bush administration, the GOP Primaries and their subsequent general election results have been ... well ... let's just say, "sub-optimal".

The funny thing is: Realizing the atrocious Presidential Primary experience last cycle, the Party made changes in their debate and convention programs to eliminate the "Clown Car" experience - and look at the results! :doh
 

MrT

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I think we pretty much predicted this accurately.

Cruz and Sanders will take WI tonight.

The exit polling for Sanders, at least according to CNN, seems much higher than the pre-election polling would have indicated (10 point lead as opposed to the RCP average of about 2 points).

The Republican side seems more in line with the pre-election polling, Cruz up by about 11 points, at 47%.
 

Fiddytree

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Let's face it: Since the Bush administration, the GOP Primaries and their subsequent general election results have been ... well ... let's just say, "sub-optimal".

The funny thing is: Realizing the atrocious Presidential Primary experience last cycle, the Party made changes in their debate and convention programs to eliminate the "Clown Car" experience - and look at the results! :doh

Except people made those charges about the candidates being bad. The candidates this time could in no way be seen as bad. An overwhelming majority of them were great candidates.

It's the voters who are the problem, not the candidates.
 

Linc

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Bradley: Women play a role in date rape.
Bradley: Apologizes for calling gays 'queers'.
Bradley: Apologizes for calling AIDS patients 'degenerates'.
Bradley: Appointed by Walker .
 

poweRob

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Look at the CNN poll of repubs if trump vs clinton or cruz vs clinton.... 17% to 18% of those repubs would go third party.

Like I said before, it's a year where a charismatic rich Ross Perot kind of candidate would do very well.
 

Chomsky

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Except people made those charges about the candidates being bad. The candidates this time could in no way be seen as bad. An overwhelming majority of them were great candidates.

It's the voters who are the problem, not the candidates.
Well, the voters and Trump! :mrgreen:

Call me old-fashioned, but I think the voters should count a little for something. ;)
 
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