Wind power failing

[longview]

Maybe explain that some more?



If electricity gets so cheap that oil companies can make fuel from it, consumers will use more and drive the price back up. Basically you're counting on the free market to "put a price on carbon" when every experience of the free market suggests that it has to be dragged kicking and screaming to ever account for hidden costs.

We didn't get containment on nuclear reactors, nor scrubbers on coal plants, by leaving it to the free market. We got those by government regulation.

Currently there is very limited data on how efficiently fuel can be made from electricity.
The Navy back in 2015 was saying they could make jet fuel at a 60% efficiency.
Sunfire is saying 81% if the plant is next to a CO2 source.
For the purposes of this exercise, I will use the NAVY's low efficiency figure, of 60%.
A gallon of gasoline contains 33Kwh of energy, if you can only store that energy at 60%, you need
33/0.6 = 55 Kwh of electricity to create a gallon of gasoline.
A barrel of oil can be refined into 35 gallons of gasoline.
If wholesale electricity is at $0.05 per Kwh ($50/ Mwh), then the breakeven price
would be 55 X .05 X 35 = $96.25 per barrel.

We could tax carbon, but it would not change much globally.
Changing how the world gets the energy it uses will change everything, and that, I think will happen on it's own.

 

[Ug make hammer]

Currently there is very limited data on how efficiently fuel can be made from electricity.
The Navy back in 2015 was saying they could make jet fuel at a 60% efficiency.
Sunfire is saying 81% if the plant is next to a CO2 source.
For the purposes of this exercise, I will use the NAVY's low efficiency figure, of 60%.
A gallon of gasoline contains 33Kwh of energy, if you can only store that energy at 60%, you need
33/0.6 = 55 Kwh of electricity to create a gallon of gasoline.
A barrel of oil can be refined into 35 gallons of gasoline.
If wholesale electricity is at $0.05 per Kwh ($50/ Mwh), then the breakeven price
would be 55 X .05 X 35 = $96.25 per barrel.

We could tax carbon, but it would not change much globally.
Changing how the world gets the energy it uses will change everything, and that, I think will happen on it's own.

The barrel price of oil is whatever the market will bear, since it's not currently substitutable. You introduce an alternative and I think you'll have stiffer competition from them. Without any government incentives or disincentives, I think using fossil gas as feedstock will probably overwhelm any idealistic attempt to extract carbon from the atmosphere or ocean. They may even use coal since with no uses besides steel making it will be practically free.

If that plays out over ten or fifteen years, and it doesn't work the way you hope it does, then you'll regret not having government intervention now.

As I might have said before, carbon taxes do have a global effect if the developed nations apply carbon tariffs as well as a carbon tax domestically. Even China would comply: if their carbon emissions are going to get taxed between them and the market, they will opt to do the taxing themselves and avoid the tariff.

 

[longview]

The barrel price of oil is whatever the market will bear, since it's not currently substitutable. You introduce an alternative and I think you'll have stiffer competition from them. Without any government incentives or disincentives, I think using fossil gas as feedstock will probably overwhelm any idealistic attempt to extract carbon from the atmosphere or ocean. They may even use coal since with no uses besides steel making it will be practically free.

If that plays out over ten or fifteen years, and it doesn't work the way you hope it does, then you'll regret not having government intervention now.

As I might have said before, carbon taxes do have a global effect if the developed nations apply carbon tariffs as well as a carbon tax domestically. Even China would comply: if their carbon emissions are going to get taxed between them and the market, they will opt to do the taxing themselves and avoid the tariff.

The regulations needed are already in place, they separated the extraction, refining, and the distribution.
Sure the extraction folks will attempt to remain competitive, but their costs are increasing, as the supply of
cheap easy oil declines. They can attempt to sell oil at a loss, but that position in untenable.
The more I think about it, a likely scenario is that premium gasoline will be replaced with the carbon neutral version,
(as it can only make premium), and gradually the price of regular made from oil will increase until
they are almost the same, at which point people will choose the premium, because they get more miles per gallon for the same costs.

 

[Buzz]

That wasnt about nuclear waste disposal lol you should take some history classes at your local adult school, Buzz- you need it.

Not about nuclear waste?? Are you high? Oh, that's right... you don't deal in reality.

Never mind.

 

[Buzz]

A doubling is not a linier change, 1-2, 2-4, 4-8, ect, the change in CO2 level is not the same for each step.
this is why it is defined by a natural log curve.

I wasn't talking about the change in CO2 being the same. I was talking about the temperature change for each doubling being the same.

Your intellectual dishonesty is getting very tiring.

 

[longview]

I wasn't talking about the change in CO2 being the same. I was talking about the temperature change for each doubling being the same.

Your intellectual dishonesty is getting very tiring.

I did not write the formula, and unless you have a citation saying it gets off of that curve at lower concentrations,
we have to assume it does not.

 

[PoS]

Not about nuclear waste?? Are you high? Oh, that's right... you don't deal in reality.

Never mind.

LOL you ought to study history. I would recommend adult school.