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Willl the EU survive if England votes to leave?

Will the EU survive without England?

  • EU will survive

    Votes: 18 66.7%
  • EU will evenutally cease to exist

    Votes: 9 33.3%

  • Total voters
    27

hazelnut

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I know maybe (and maybe not) other countries would leave if England does. Maybe the EU would become smaller. But will it survive at all, or will it cease to exist eventually? Although of course not right away.
 

Korimyr the Rat

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It still has Germany and France. They're not going to lose many countries while they have Germany and France.
 

Infinite Chaos

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I know maybe (and maybe not) other countries would leave if England does. Maybe the EU would become smaller. But will it survive at all, or will it cease to exist eventually? Although of course not right away.

It will survive, as you say some countries may also leave but firstly the EU is also a trade zone which is the biggest trade zone in the world and there's a huge economic reason to keep that going and then secondly those remaining in the EU may start to recognise that all was not well in the treaties and structure which were being created and force them to make the structures more accountable.
 

joG

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I know maybe (and maybe not) other countries would leave if England does. Maybe the EU would become smaller. But will it survive at all, or will it cease to exist eventually? Although of course not right away.

It will survive to the detriment of its populations.
 

joG

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It still has Germany and France. They're not going to lose many countries while they have Germany and France.

The EU propaganda in these two countries is no longer working its magic as well as it was and forces have formed that want to roll back the EU to a manageable level without the political interference it has reached for.
 

joG

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It will survive, as you say some countries may also leave but firstly the EU is also a trade zone which is the biggest trade zone in the world and there's a huge economic reason to keep that going and then secondly those remaining in the EU may start to recognise that all was not well in the treaties and structure which were being created and force them to make the structures more accountable.

If it had remained a trade area, it would not be in the trouble it now is. It was when it started playing games with legitimacy and power that its politicians and bureaucrats did not understand that the line was crossed and it began to be a detriment to the peoples of the continent and no longer the beneficial entity it had been.
 

Sweden

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The EU propaganda in these two countries is no longer working its magic as well as it was and forces have formed that want to roll back the EU to a manageable level without the political interference it has reached for.

I don't think the institutions and structure of the EU allow for reform Jog. There is a built in ratchet: 'More Europe' can come about, but the machine has no reverse gear.

Something similar was the case in the Soviet Union. Gorbatchov started off thinking he could reform the state and the Communist system. It proved impossible and the tottering structure collapsed.
 

joG

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I don't think the institutions and structure of the EU allow for reform Jog. There is a built in ratchet: 'More Europe' can come about, but the machine has no reverse gear.

Something similar was the case in the Soviet Union. Gorbatchov started off thinking he could reform the state and the Communist system. It proved impossible and the tottering structure collapsed.

That could easily be a lesson the EU will teach us. But as the optimist I am, I hope they can find a little hill, where after stopping forward movement they can role back without the reverse gear that any good vehicle should be built with.
 

Andalublue

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The EU would survive. The UK would not. Scotland would declare independence within 5 years. Wales within 10. Northern Ireland merely awaits the demographic shift that places the catholic population in the majority; at current rates of change that will have occurred by the 2021 census. Let's be clear, the EU is not dealing with a UK problem, but with an English problem.
 

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I think it very unlikely that Scotland would be independent within 5 years. And certain that Wales would not within 10 - or 100 - there is minimal sentiment in Wales for leaving the UK

Btw neither nation can simply 'declare' independence. A vote in Parliament would be required.
 

shrubnose

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It will be different but it will survive even if other nations leave.

Alliances have changed throughout history.
 

Infinite Chaos

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~ Btw neither nation can simply 'declare' independence. A vote in Parliament would be required.

True, but as democracies if there is a huge push for regional independence then those acts would be forthcoming. I think 5 years for Scotland is fairly accurate as this takes into account the time it wold take for a push for that act of Parliament once the Scots realise they are being dragged out of the EU.

No PM is going to argue the case against a huge mandate in Scotland. Then, it's a matter of time for the other regions to follow suit - current polls already put the regions down as largely remain

If it had remained a trade area, it would not be in the trouble it now is.

Also true, most Brits would have easily voted to remain if this is what the EU had focused on.
 

Andalublue

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I think it very unlikely that Scotland would be independent within 5 years. And certain that Wales would not within 10 - or 100 - there is minimal sentiment in Wales for leaving the UK.
There is a minority sentiment for it in Wales, not minimal. Just wait until their grants and subsidies get cut and the Tories funnel all their putative savings into their southeastern and rural heartlands. It would take some time, but 10 years isn't optimistic.

Btw neither nation can simply 'declare' independence. A vote in Parliament would be required.
They hold a referendum, then parliament votes. Even a Tory dominated Commons would not vote to ignore a referendum.
 

Abbazorkzog

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The EU will be fine.
The UK will become a modern-day Yugoslavia.
 

shrubnose

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The EU would survive.
The UK would not.
Scotland would declare independence within 5 years. Wales within 10. Northern Ireland merely awaits the demographic shift that places the catholic population in the majority; at current rates of change that will have occurred by the 2021 census. Let's be clear, the EU is not dealing with a UK problem, but with an English problem.



England existed before the UK was created and it would survive its dissolution.Wales would probably stick with England but eventually Northern Ireland will unite with Ireland.
 

shrubnose

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I don't think the institutions and structure of the EU allow for reform Jog. There is a built in ratchet: 'More Europe' can come about, but the machine has no reverse gear.

Something similar was the case in the Soviet Union. Gorbatchov started off thinking he could reform the state and the Communist system. It proved impossible and the tottering structure collapsed.



If the UK votes for Brexit the only way that it will ever rejoin the EU is with the approval of all of the members of the EU.
 

Gaztopian

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As far as survival is concerned, of course it will. Vigor, however, is a different matter. Britain's departure will no doubt be a blow to the EU's vigor, but it can also be an opportunity to consolidate the union and reinvigorate the ideal behind it.
 

joG

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The EU would survive. The UK would not. Scotland would declare independence within 5 years. Wales within 10. Northern Ireland merely awaits the demographic shift that places the catholic population in the majority; at current rates of change that will have occurred by the 2021 census. Let's be clear, the EU is not dealing with a UK problem, but with an English problem.

All possibly true except that the problem the EU has to deal with independent of the outcome of the UK referendum is that all across the continent the ;EU has lost legitimacy and with it so have the traditional political forces that caused the undue hardship to the populations willfully.
 

Andalublue

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All possibly true except that the problem the EU has to deal with independent of the outcome of the UK referendum is that all across the continent the ;EU has lost legitimacy and with it so have the traditional political forces that caused the undue hardship to the populations willfully.

That's true. The threat to the EU is real. Let's see if it has politicians who have the nous to recognise and address the issues, or get out of the way of people who see the value of a union, but reject its commitment to austerity and unreformed neo-liberal economics.
 

DaveFagan

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I know maybe (and maybe not) other countries would leave if England does. Maybe the EU would become smaller. But will it survive at all, or will it cease to exist eventually? Although of course not right away.

I see the EU as a large banking conglomerate that works for the bankers, not for Europeans, and NATO as the banker's big stick, and all under the control of banks. As the citizens realize that their efforts profit the banks and not the citizens, the serfs will initiate change.
 
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