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The general consensus among Trumpians on this forum, which I have not seen challenged much by the other side, is that the Republicans who vote to impeach/convict Trump and/or who work together with Dems over the next two years will be successfully primaried and we will wind up with a Trump-controlled government.
I'm not so sure about that. In order for this plan to work, Trumpians will first, of course, need to win the relevant primaries with real hardcore Trumpian candidates (e.g., Qanon and/or believe the 2020 election was fraudulent, everything Trump did was perfect, etc.). It's not clear they will even be able to do that, especially because those who voted against Trump are likely from at least semi-moderate districts.
The primary, of course, is not the end-game. They will then have to run against Democrats in those districts. And extremist GOP members don't have a terrific track record of winning national office after primarying more moderate Congresspeople. If the moderate Republicans who voted against the Trumpian candidates team up with a growing contingent of independents and Democrats, suddenly you have a very blue Congress. The nomination of extremist GOP candidates is in fact what led to several of the recent blue waves.
I know it's early, but what do you think? Will the primarying of moderate Republicans in 2022 be a successful strategy?
I'm not so sure about that. In order for this plan to work, Trumpians will first, of course, need to win the relevant primaries with real hardcore Trumpian candidates (e.g., Qanon and/or believe the 2020 election was fraudulent, everything Trump did was perfect, etc.). It's not clear they will even be able to do that, especially because those who voted against Trump are likely from at least semi-moderate districts.
The primary, of course, is not the end-game. They will then have to run against Democrats in those districts. And extremist GOP members don't have a terrific track record of winning national office after primarying more moderate Congresspeople. If the moderate Republicans who voted against the Trumpian candidates team up with a growing contingent of independents and Democrats, suddenly you have a very blue Congress. The nomination of extremist GOP candidates is in fact what led to several of the recent blue waves.
I know it's early, but what do you think? Will the primarying of moderate Republicans in 2022 be a successful strategy?