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Will Russia eventually join the EU?

Chris

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I think its inevitable that Russia will eventually join the EU (even if it's leaders don't necessarily want to). The CIS has nothing good to offer in comparison to the EU. As more and more ex-communist countries adopt stronger ties to the wealthy and progressive EU nations, Russia will find itself with fewer and fewer allies.
 

Kandahar

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Chris said:
I think its inevitable that Russia will eventually join the EU (even if it's leaders don't necessarily want to). The CIS has nothing good to offer in comparison to the EU. As more and more ex-communist countries adopt stronger ties to the wealthy and progressive EU nations, Russia will find itself with fewer and fewer allies.
This assumes that the decision is entirely up to Russia. What makes you think that the EU would ever consider admitting a human rights abusing dictatorship like Russia?
 

ludahai

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Kandahar said:
This assumes that the decision is entirely up to Russia. What makes you think that the EU would ever consider admitting a human rights abusing dictatorship like Russia?
I agree. They are hesitant to even talk to Turkey about it (and likely wouldn't yet be were it nor for pressure from President Bush) and Turkey is light years ahead of Russia in many issues of concern to the Europeans.
 

Chris

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Kandahar said:
This assumes that the decision is entirely up to Russia. What makes you think that the EU would ever consider admitting a human rights abusing dictatorship like Russia?
True, Russia has no chance of even being considered for admission under the current status quo. However I think as their leadership continues to loose their grip over more and more of Eastern Europe this may change. As Russian citizens become more and more aware of the freedoms and prosperity that the EU nations enjoy, they'll put more pressure on their leaders to make changes.
 

Red_Dave

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ludahai said:
I agree. They are hesitant to even talk to Turkey about it (and likely wouldn't yet be were it nor for pressure from President Bush) and Turkey is light years ahead of Russia in many issues of concern to the Europeans.
If the existing member states in the EU have any sence they will not let russia join. Ruissia's obviously has a very large population and that would give its people alot of power, if not complete control over the european parliament as russia would get alot of m.e.ps [Members of the european parliament-bit like representatives] so it doesnt seam likely to me that the others would allow it. Joining the e.u would also mean free movement between ruissia and the other member states, i doubt many would choose to stay in russia for long. As regards Turkey when I last checked each government wanted them to join accept austria. Its still very controversial though
 
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Chris

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Romania and Bulgaria are set to join in 2007 as I recall. Croatia is also starting the process of joining and a significant portion of Ukraine and Georgia are also in favor of joining.

Aside from Belarus I can't think of many countries that are likely to stick with Moscow.
 

Chris

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Red_Dave said:
If the existing member states in the EU have any sence they will not let russia join. Ruissia's obviously has a very large population and that would give its people alot of power, if not complete control over the european parliament as russia would get alot of m.e.ps [Members of the european parliament-bit like representatives] so it doesnt seam likely to me that the others would allow it. Joining the e.u would also mean free movement between ruissia and the other member states, i doubt many would choose to stay in russia for long. As regards Turkey when I last checked each government wanted them to join accept austria. Its still very controversial though
Although Russia would have the largest population of any EU country (approx 145 million), the combined total of the EU would still vastly outweigh the population of Russia. Russia would have considerable influence within the EU, but theres no way they could run the show unopposed. As I said earlier, because of Russia's rampant poverty they could not join until this issues was significantly addressed, therefore I tend to think that a mass exodus of Russians into western Europe is unlikely.

As for Turkey, I'm confident that they will eventually join the EU, however they must contend with three major obstacles first.

1)Hyper-inflation
Turkey's economy is too weak and unstable by EU standards. If they want to join they need to create strong growth over an extended time frame. Prior to the recent currency reform it was possible to find circulating coins in your pocket change with denominations as high as 1 million Lira. http://worldcoingallery.com/countries/img13/180-1163.jpg

2)Human Rights Record
Probably the biggest single obstacle to Turkey's EU aspirations. While progress has been made, Turkey still has a ways to go to reach acceptable human rights standards.

3)Kurdish Conflict
Until Turkey's significant Kurdish minority either receive an acceptable amount of cultural autonomy or wins outright independence, this issue will continue to destabilize and drain the economy.
 
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