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Will Republicans Try Another Election Coup in 2024?
To Republicans contemplating a 2024 coup scenario, 2020 was a dress rehearsal that only needs some doable tweaks to succeed next time.
4/14/21
There is a lot of angst in Republican Establishment circles over the 45th president’s reported rant at a Republican donor conference near his Florida home over the weekend. Trump is apparently still furious at Brian Kemp for impeding his election coup, and Mike Pence for failing to steal a second term for him anyway, and at Mitch McConnell for refusing to back his electoral vote challenge and then criticizing him for inciting a riot. But what if Trump’s attacks on those who “betrayed” him in 2020 aren’t just narcissistic or backward-looking? What if it’s part of a forward-looking plan to rerun 2020 and get it right this time? That’s the question Jonathan V. Last of The Bulwark appears to have asked himself, and he’s answered it with a hair-raising hypothesis that is as plausible as the assumption that Trump is just throwing temper tantrums. It is likely Republicans will have majorities in the congressional delegations of at least 26 states for the foreseeable future. They have a >50 percent chance of winning the House in 2022 and a pretty good shot at flipping the Senate. So the first two preconditions for winning the presidency while losing the election are very much on the table. Which leaves just one project: Mustering the political will to move past both the popular vote and the Electoral College.
If you begin not with the assumption that Trump’s entire effort to steal the election was absurd, but regard it as an audacious plan that wasn’t executed with the necessary precision, then reverse engineering it to fix the broken parts makes sense: [T]he key parts of the Republican autopsy have been (1) building the political will to use raw power next time and (2) removing the Republican officials who were not willing to comply last time. That’s why Republican state parties have censured nearly every Republican who did not participate in Trump’s attempted coup. And the really heady thing for Trump is knowing how easy it was to convince the GOP rank-and-file base that his lies were the gospel truth: The Big Lie is actually the biggest insight to come from the Republican autopsy. Republicans and their enablers discovered that if they make false, evidence-free claims often and loudly enough, then the vast majority of their voters will believe them. And then, once Republican voters were onboard, they found that the rest of the party elites would either join them or stay silent. Only a handful of Republicans dared to object. And those figures are in the process of being either defeated or coopted. It’s a chilling thought, and one to revisit if Trump’s Republican enemies go down to primary challenges next year.
To Republicans contemplating a 2024 coup scenario, 2020 was a dress rehearsal that only needs some doable tweaks to succeed next time.