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Will Amy Coney Barrett Cost Republicans the Senate?

Rogue Valley

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Mitch McConnell has a tricky needle to thread.

9/25/20
Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, delights in confirming Republican-nominated jurists. District courts, appeals courts, most especially the Supreme Court — he wants to fill them all. In fact, with his party’s having largely given up on legislating in recent years, this may be what Mr. McConnell regards as his main duty. It is certainly the part at which he excels. But for Mr. McConnell to keep this job, his party must keep control of the Senate. And that challenge got considerably more ulcer-inducing with the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg last week. As has been noted, Mr. McConnell finds himself in the rare situation where his two loves — holding power and confirming judges — are in tension. One early data point that has Democrats feeling good: money. Since Justice Ginsburg’s death, contributions have come pouring into progressive groups and individual campaigns at a level that political veterans say is unlike anything they’ve ever seen. ActBlue, which focuses on small-dollar donations, pulled in more than $100 million last weekend. For some of Mr. McConnell’s members, the focus on the courts could be a lifeline — for others, a millstone. The most likely casualties are Cory Gardner in Colorado and Susan Collins in Maine. These blue-state Republicans were already having trouble convincing independents and moderates that they aren’t Trump tools while not alienating their base voters, who expect them to be precisely that.

Not that Mr. McConnell had a choice. In the midst of all the handicapping, the confirmation drama should serve as a reminder that ideas still matter in politics — though perhaps not in the way one would think. Republican voters have long been motivated, far more than Democrats, by a hunger to shift the courts in their direction. This is partly because of conservative opposition to abortion and the desire to see Roe v. Wade overturned. They are increasingly counting on conservative jurists to take their side in the culture wars and save them from the horrors of modernity (i.e. becoming the racial/ethnical minority). Republican lawmakers recognize that the party’s policy positions, what few it has left, anyway, tend to lack broad appeal. As the Republican commentator Amanda Carpenter observed on “The Bulwark Podcast” this week, over the past decade, Republicans gave up on consensus building and doing “the hard work of passing laws,” and instead are aiming to “have the courts solve our problems.” Even with total control of the government, Republicans failed to repeal and replace Obamacare, which they had been promising for years. Instead, they have kicked it to the courts to dismantle. Republicans understand that ideas matter. They also know that having apparently run out of appealing ones, they must find other ways to exert power. For them, these court fights are increasingly a matter of political life and death.

I personally think "Moscow" Mitch McConnell, both a politician and a strategist, will hold a Senate SCOTUS confirmation vote asap figuring that this will help more GOP Senators up for reelection (like Lindsey Graham and perhaps Lisa Murkowski) than hurt others who are probably already dead meat (such as Susan Collins and Cory Gardner). I tend to think stacking the Supreme Court with a 6-3 conservative majority and lifetime appointments is more important to McConnell than remaining the Senate Majority Leader for the next four years. By and large, Republicans have given up on attaining party goals via the Congressional-legislative route, and instead now look to the courts to advance their various agenda. It's difficult to say anymore what ideology the GOP still holds dear, since it has cast aside all traditional Republican/conservative values under Donald Trump and Trumpism.
 

Mitch McConnell has a tricky needle to thread.



I personally think "Moscow" Mitch McConnell, both a politician and a strategist, will hold a Senate SCOTUS confirmation vote asap figuring that this will help more GOP Senators up for reelection (like Lindsey Graham and perhaps Lisa Murkowski) than hurt others who are probably already dead meat (such as Susan Collins and Cory Gardner). I tend to think stacking the Supreme Court with a 6-3 conservative majority and lifetime appointments is more important to McConnell than remaining the Senate Majority Leader for the next four years. By and large, Republicans have given up on attaining party goals via the Congressional-legislative route, and instead now look to the courts to advance their various agenda. It's difficult to say anymore what ideology the GOP still holds dear, since it has cast aside all traditional Republican/conservative values under Donald Trump and Trumpism.

The party that hid behind SCOTUS decisions for over a generation is heading to the fainting couches over Republican values?

Briar patch much?
 
By and large, Republicans have given up on attaining party goals via the Congressional-legislative route, and instead now look to the courts to advance their various agenda.

You actually believe it is Republicans using the Supreme Court to bypass the legislature? This is something the left very clearly is doing. The judges Trump has confirmed are largely originalists/textualists, meaning they rule based on what the law meant at the time it was created. The liberals on the court on the court are contextualists, meaning they look at the law and apply it in modern times based on their personal ethics and morality. In other words, contextualists make rulings based on what they believe the law should mean, rather than what it was when it was written. This is how liberals get judicial law and bypass Congress.

If you look at Gorsuch, for example, he hasn't always sided with conservatives on the court. The liberal judges you know how they will decide the outcome of the case based on which political party would benefit at a rate of about 99%. The originalists don't always side with the politics of the party that nominated them.
 
What should cost the Senate republicants is that they approved annual federal “budgets” with ever increasing deficits. The idea that these annual federal “budget” deficits do not matter, thus federal spending can be raised while federal income tax rates are cut has been repeatedly shown not to work.
 
You actually believe it is Republicans using the Supreme Court to bypass the legislature? This is something the left very clearly is doing. The judges Trump has confirmed are largely originalists/textualists, meaning they rule based on what the law meant at the time it was created. The liberals on the court on the court are contextualists, meaning they look at the law and apply it in modern times based on their personal ethics and morality. In other words, contextualists make rulings based on what they believe the law should mean, rather than what it was when it was written. This is how liberals get judicial law and bypass Congress.

If you look at Gorsuch, for example, he hasn't always sided with conservatives on the court. The liberal judges you know how they will decide the outcome of the case based on which political party would benefit at a rate of about 99%. The originalists don't always side with the politics of the party that nominated them.
Please, nobody buys that.

99% of the time the conservative court bands together on most issues just like the liberal wing. Every once in awhile you'll have a Roberts or a Kennedy swing to the liberal wing, but that's only to preserve the courts legitimacy, it's not because of some principle they actually care about.

You want to talk about activism? Conservative justices make it no secret how they view their moral codes as belonging in the laws of society. They also make it no secret that they take issue with only rulings that went in favor of social progress they disagree with from a religious and political perspective, and they practically audition for bench seats by making these opinions clear for the Republicans in Congress.

You don't see liberal legal minds looking for careers as judges pledging to overturn Citizens United, do you? That's because they respect legal precedent, even when they disagree with it.
 
Please, nobody buys that.

99% of the time the conservative court bands together on most issues just like the liberal wing. Every once in awhile you'll have a Roberts or a Kennedy swing to the liberal wing, but that's only to preserve the courts legitimacy, it's not because of some principle they actually care about.

You want to talk about activism? Conservative justices make it no secret how they view their moral codes as belonging in the laws of society. They also make it no secret that they take issue with only rulings that went in favor of social progress they disagree with from a religious and political perspective, and they practically audition for bench seats by making these opinions clear for the Republicans in Congress.

You don't see liberal legal minds looking for careers as judges pledging to overturn Citizens United, do you? That's because they respect legal precedent, even when they disagree with it.
It wasn't for sale.

It is far more common for the four liberals on the court to peal away a conservative vote than it is to get a RBG or Kagan, etc to side with the conservatives on the court. There is more variance in the decisions of the conservative justices. Despite only having four votes, they are a steady four and they have managed to get their way quite a bit despite being in the minority. That is because there is more swing on the conservative side with variables of conservatism, orginalism and textualism.

Your goals of "social progress" is intended for the legislature, not the courts. The role of the courts is to determine the law as it is written. It is not their role to re-evaluate laws based on the what the liberal ideology determines to be "social progress." If that is your goal of the court, you're going to be let down going forward presuming Barrett's nomination goes through.

And you see liberal minds overruling things all the time. Just a couple months ago the liberal justices and Roberts determined that the state can shut down a church events for covid fears while allowing movie theaters and casinos to remain open. They didn't even bother to write a majority opinion because there was no justification under the law.
 
The GOP will keep the Senate.The Dems will have to grin and Barrett.
eh this is not decided yet. this year is going to be crazy when it comes to the election.
 

Mitch McConnell has a tricky needle to thread.



I personally think "Moscow" Mitch McConnell, both a politician and a strategist, will hold a Senate SCOTUS confirmation vote asap figuring that this will help more GOP Senators up for reelection (like Lindsey Graham and perhaps Lisa Murkowski) than hurt others who are probably already dead meat (such as Susan Collins and Cory Gardner). I tend to think stacking the Supreme Court with a 6-3 conservative majority and lifetime appointments is more important to McConnell than remaining the Senate Majority Leader for the next four years. By and large, Republicans have given up on attaining party goals via the Congressional-legislative route, and instead now look to the courts to advance their various agenda. It's difficult to say anymore what ideology the GOP still holds dear, since it has cast aside all traditional Republican/conservative values under Donald Trump and Trumpism.

I agree with you that he does have a tricky needle to thread. Politics is always a tricky thread but when you get an open seat on the supreme court, you would be absolutely stupid not filling it.

Most people do not think this way but there are people who will vote like this.

Can not stand Trump so I will vote for Biden. Can not tolerate Biden so I will vote for a REP representative. Let's see if Joe can really work across party lines.

This is what our nation historically does to limit power.
 

Mitch McConnell has a tricky needle to thread.



I personally think "Moscow" Mitch McConnell, both a politician and a strategist, will hold a Senate SCOTUS confirmation vote asap figuring that this will help more GOP Senators up for reelection (like Lindsey Graham and perhaps Lisa Murkowski) than hurt others who are probably already dead meat (such as Susan Collins and Cory Gardner). I tend to think stacking the Supreme Court with a 6-3 conservative majority and lifetime appointments is more important to McConnell than remaining the Senate Majority Leader for the next four years. By and large, Republicans have given up on attaining party goals via the Congressional-legislative route, and instead now look to the courts to advance their various agenda. It's difficult to say anymore what ideology the GOP still holds dear, since it has cast aside all traditional Republican/conservative values under Donald Trump and Trumpism.
I think the senate was already lost. This could make it worse. There is nothing more Trump can do for conservatives. They got all their judges and don't have control of the house.

It's way past time for change.
 

Mitch McConnell has a tricky needle to thread.



I personally think "Moscow" Mitch McConnell, both a politician and a strategist, will hold a Senate SCOTUS confirmation vote asap figuring that this will help more GOP Senators up for reelection (like Lindsey Graham and perhaps Lisa Murkowski) than hurt others who are probably already dead meat (such as Susan Collins and Cory Gardner). I tend to think stacking the Supreme Court with a 6-3 conservative majority and lifetime appointments is more important to McConnell than remaining the Senate Majority Leader for the next four years. By and large, Republicans have given up on attaining party goals via the Congressional-legislative route, and instead now look to the courts to advance their various agenda. It's difficult to say anymore what ideology the GOP still holds dear, since it has cast aside all traditional Republican/conservative values under Donald Trump and Trumpism.
All true, but it will be trump that costs them the Senate, when trump goes down they will be drug down with him. I will not miss any of them.
 
If you thing blm is a great hook to hang your hat on, you are sadly mistaken, in fact, they may have been a republican plant to ensure Trump's law and order plank in his platform.
Thanks for your support.

He’s stating he wont’ leave the WH unless he’s decared the winner. The Law and Order thing ain’t his thing.

You’re welcome for whatever imaginary thing you’re thanking me for.
 
He’s stating he wont’ leave the WH unless he’s decared the winner. The Law and Order thing ain’t his thing.

You’re welcome for whatever imaginary thing you’re thanking me for.
WTF are you babbling about?
 
The party that hid behind SCOTUS decisions for over a generation is heading to the fainting couches over Republican values?

Briar patch much?


Cheering on lying, cheating, and stealing? How Trumpist of you.
 

Mitch McConnell has a tricky needle to thread.



I personally think "Moscow" Mitch McConnell, both a politician and a strategist, will hold a Senate SCOTUS confirmation vote asap figuring that this will help more GOP Senators up for reelection (like Lindsey Graham and perhaps Lisa Murkowski) than hurt others who are probably already dead meat (such as Susan Collins and Cory Gardner). I tend to think stacking the Supreme Court with a 6-3 conservative majority and lifetime appointments is more important to McConnell than remaining the Senate Majority Leader for the next four years. By and large, Republicans have given up on attaining party goals via the Congressional-legislative route, and instead now look to the courts to advance their various agenda. It's difficult to say anymore what ideology the GOP still holds dear, since it has cast aside all traditional Republican/conservative values under Donald Trump and Trumpism.

I do not think Donald Trump refraining from nominating Judge Coney Barret to the Supreme Court would have made one iota of difference. People are dissatisfied with Republican leadership in general and Donald Trump's inept administration hurts down-ballot Republican Senatorial candidates. I doubt people who are voting against Republicans are doing so solely because of McConnel's hypocrisy vis-a-vis Merrick Garland.
 
I do not think Donald Trump refraining from nominating Judge Coney Barret to the Supreme Court would have made one iota of difference. People are dissatisfied with Republican leadership in general and Donald Trump's inept administration hurts down-ballot Republican Senatorial candidates. I doubt people who are voting against Republicans are doing so solely because of McConnel's hypocrisy vis-a-vis Merrick Garland.
Yeah though i think the whole debacle shows some major flaws in how the court is treated.
 

Mitch McConnell has a tricky needle to thread.



I personally think "Moscow" Mitch McConnell, both a politician and a strategist, will hold a Senate SCOTUS confirmation vote asap figuring that this will help more GOP Senators up for reelection (like Lindsey Graham and perhaps Lisa Murkowski) than hurt others who are probably already dead meat (such as Susan Collins and Cory Gardner). I tend to think stacking the Supreme Court with a 6-3 conservative majority and lifetime appointments is more important to McConnell than remaining the Senate Majority Leader for the next four years. By and large, Republicans have given up on attaining party goals via the Congressional-legislative route, and instead now look to the courts to advance their various agenda. It's difficult to say anymore what ideology the GOP still holds dear, since it has cast aside all traditional Republican/conservative values under Donald Trump and Trumpism.
Yeah though i think the whole debacle shows some major flaws in how the court is treated.
The flaws are in how the democrats treat the hearings. The only reason they are holding them at all is to force the media to put “ Prez in Waiting Harris on camera.
 
How senators react to the Barrett nomination will effect the outcome. Particularly, Susan Collins, will lose big if her vote is the one that keeps the judge of the court.
 
I agree with Eriech .

The Barrett choice is an attemt to try preserve Christian evangelical voting support but may not be enough given what Trump has said and done in the last 4 years.

Many of that Christian evangelical base may not come out to vote this time because they can not overlook what Trump has done, does and says. T

Trump is the epitome of someone who engages in profanity in its purest sense. He ridicules how precious and fragile life is and that has been seen in his Covid 19 behaviour and his disrespect for the lives of soldiers. To be so callous and reckless about the death of soldiers or human safety and then in the next breathy try cloak himself as a saviour of the unborn is as disconnected as any other message Trump gives out. The fat man calling people fat, the man speaking in disjointed, fractured babble calling Biden demented, a man who coughs and weezes while claiming he is immune to Covid, the man calling out neo nazis to stand by, now posing as a religious man not resonate as a Christian messiah, just another Satanic demon.
 
I agree with Eriech .

The Barrett choice is an attemt to try preserve Christian evangelical voting support but may not be enough given what Trump has said and done in the last 4 years.

Many of that Christian evangelical base may not come out to vote this time because they can not overlook what Trump has done, does and says. T

Trump is the epitome of someone who engages in profanity in its purest sense. He ridicules how precious and fragile life is and that has been seen in his Covid 19 behaviour and his disrespect for the lives of soldiers. To be so callous and reckless about the death of soldiers or human safety and then in the next breathy try cloak himself as a saviour of the unborn is as disconnected as any other message Trump gives out. The fat man calling people fat, the man speaking in disjointed, fractured babble calling Biden demented, a man who coughs and weezes while claiming he is immune to Covid, the man calling out neo nazis to stand by, now posing as a religious man not resonate as a Christian messiah, just another Satanic demon.
There's virtually nothing in your post that is in agreement with my thinking.
 

Mitch McConnell has a tricky needle to thread.



I personally think "Moscow" Mitch McConnell, both a politician and a strategist, will hold a Senate SCOTUS confirmation vote asap figuring that this will help more GOP Senators up for reelection (like Lindsey Graham and perhaps Lisa Murkowski) than hurt others who are probably already dead meat (such as Susan Collins and Cory Gardner). I tend to think stacking the Supreme Court with a 6-3 conservative majority and lifetime appointments is more important to McConnell than remaining the Senate Majority Leader for the next four years. By and large, Republicans have given up on attaining party goals via the Congressional-legislative route, and instead now look to the courts to advance their various agenda. It's difficult to say anymore what ideology the GOP still holds dear, since it has cast aside all traditional Republican/conservative values under Donald Trump and Trumpism.
sadly, i agree, stacking the court is more important to him than maintaining the majority...he sees which way the wind is blowing, and his majority is in grave danger.
 
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