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Why Ukraine is being handled as it is

Lutherf

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This is conspiracy, my theory, on why Ukraine was attacked by Putin, why the attack was so lackadaisical, why Biden's first instinct was to offer Zelensky asylum and why nobody of consequence is doing anything more than moderate to middling sanctions in an effort to stop the invasion.

Here is the synopsis -
Igor Sechin is the president of Rosneft and a very close Putin ally. Sechin is also tied to the Steel dossier and is one of the contacts Carter Page met with. With the Durham investigation looking like it may be doing a MUCH deeper dive than anyone anticipated, that could tie Clinton to Sechin and if Clinton got tied to Sechin, even tangentially, the whole "Russiagate" thing would blow up, likely taking the entire Democrat party with it. On the Gazprom side of things, you've got Nord Stream 2 backed up because of sanctions after Putin took Crimea. If Putin took ALL of Ukraine then those sanctions could reasonably be lifted if the international community generally recognized a Russian right to Ukraine which would be a distinct possibility if Zelensky just left for asylum in the US. Putin would get everything he wanted and Biden would save the Democrat party or, as he sees it, Democracy in America.


I know this is TOTAL speculation but it's one way that all of this makes sense. Now, with Zelensky having resisted and Ukraine looking like they'd be a martyr if Putin takes them out everyone would be chomping at the bit to figure out how to undo the mess they created. Putin really can't back out at this point and Biden can't really push him too hard or something newsworthy might leak. Throw in a little complicity with the whole deal that involves Germany and Italy and you've got an answer to why they hesitated on cutting Russia out of SWIFT. The cherry on top of the sundae is that if all this stuff actually went down as I'm theorizing that makes Trump look like the American martyr and NOBODY in Europe (or American establishment politics) wants to see him turn out to be the winner in all this.
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That's the theory. Now last week a guy with a LOT more knowledge in regard to how all the "Russiagate" stuff went down wrote this piece -
https://www.realclearinvestigations..._of_war_happening_now_under_biden_820873.html

In this piece Sperry goes into some detail about how Clinton people were dealing with Ukrainians to flesh out their anti-Trump narrative, especially as concerned Manafort. Sperry also noted that Durham was talking to several Ukrainians. That means that this conspiracy actually has some substance behind it. It DOES NOT mean that Biden conspired with Putin to allow this invasion to happen but, well, the way things are going that just might be a possibility.
 

Mr Person

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"moderate to middling sanctions"?

:LOL:

Ah well, no point reading any more of @Lutherf's lies. That alone kills whatever idiocy he might be trying to spew, or would do if the naked fact of its source hadn't already done.

Russia's economy is trashed. They're begging China for help. "Middling". What a pathetic lie. Sadly typical, yes, but truly pathetic.
 

phoenix2020

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"moderate to middling sanctions"?

:LOL:

Ah well, no point reading any more of @Lutherf's lies. That alone kills whatever idiocy he might be trying to spew, or would do if the naked fact of its source hadn't already done.

Russia's economy is trashed. They're begging China for help. "Middling". What a pathetic lie. Sadly typical, yes, but truly pathetic.
I wouldn't call them middling but moderate is a fair term.

Severe sanctions would mean the EU isn't buying Russian oil, and at high oil prices. Severe sanctions would mean the full global economy is sanctioning Russia including its major trade partners like China. When applied to even a moderately totalitarian society, "sanctions" is a codeword for "show that you're doing something, even if it doesn't change things" as witnessed time and time again by examples like North Korea that have been sanctioned far more aggressively than Russia, and for decades, with no particular external change to their policy or behavior.
 

Mr Person

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I wouldn't call them middling but moderate is a fair term.

Severe sanctions would mean the EU isn't buying Russian oil, and at high oil prices. Severe sanctions would mean the full global economy is sanctioning Russia including its major trade partners like China. When applied to even a moderately totalitarian society, "sanctions" is a codeword for "show that you're doing something, even if it doesn't change things" as witnessed time and time again by examples like North Korea that have been sanctioned far more aggressively than Russia, and for decades, with no particular external change to their policy or behavior.

Ah...no, I'd still call what our sanctions are currently doing to Russia a good deal stronger than "moderate" based on their observable effect. That seems a better way to go about it than arbitrarily setting out requirements for just how many countries have to not buy oil, or the like.

I'm not sure how you draw a comparison to North Korea. Sure, we imposed "sanctions" on both, but different things are different. Different countries, different leaders, different goals on all sides, and a complete lack by North Korea of an immediate need to fund a war of aggression already stretching its forces thin in a foreign country.

One could spend days listing all the differences between the two.
 

SenorXm/Sirius

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In what world does a vodka kegger not get out of hand
LOL... Yeah.
Im a gin man myself... But yeah I've seen some really good vodka keggers... Actually many moons ago when I was single I use to love them... Lol..

No one died though.. Lol
 

Mr Person

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It's nothing but a Russian kegger that got out of hand...

No, no, you see Lutherf has it all figured out.

The cherry on top of the sundae is that if all this stuff actually went down as I'm theorizing that makes Trump look like the American martyr and NOBODY in Europe (or American establishment politics) wants to see him turn out to be the winner in all this.

Like literally everything else he talks about, the super-secret point is to victimize Trump and by extension his Trumpists.

Jesus.

****ing.

Chri-
3480468593_d4ed2b2df4.jpg
 

Lursa

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If Putin took ALL of Ukraine then those sanctions could reasonably be lifted if the international community generally recognized a Russian right to Ukraine which would be a distinct possibility if Zelensky just left for asylum in the US. Putin would get everything he wanted and Biden would save the Democrat party or, as he sees it, Democracy in America.

Please provide some valid reasons why the international community would decide to recognize Russia's right to Ukraine?

Why would that change?

(The building blocks in any CT still need to work)
 

Lutherf

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Please provide some valid reasons why the international community would decide to recognize Russia's right to Ukraine?

Why would that change?

(The building blocks in any CT still need to work)
It's not so much "recognize", in formal terms, but "effectively approve" as has been done with Donbas and Crimea as well as South Ossetia in Georgia. Sure, we impose sanctions but much like the current sanctions they really don't stop anything, much less reverse what was done. It's kind of like if someone were to steal your car and when the car was found the court says, "We're going to fine the thief $40 and they can keep the car but they can't drive it to that one movie theater 40 miles away".
 

Lursa

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It's not so much "recognize", in formal terms, but "effectively approve" as has been done with Donbas and Crimea as well as South Ossetia in Georgia. Sure, we impose sanctions but much like the current sanctions they really don't stop anything, much less reverse what was done. It's kind of like if someone were to steal your car and when the car was found the court says, "We're going to fine the thief $40 and they can keep the car but they can't drive it to that one movie theater 40 miles away".

Why do that? If we keep up the sanctions, their economy and standard of living sucks. And if nothing else, it keeps them from advancing into any other countries. We're at 3 now. Chechnya, Crimea, Ukraine....

We dont need to reverse it. The longer the fighting goes on, hopefully more Ukrainian civilians will get out and unfortunately but critically...more infrastructure will be destroyed. Russia wont have the $$ or resources to fix it. IMO if it looks like Ukraine will fall, they should destroy the natural gas pipeline(s). (Yes, the EU wont like that...too bad, they wont be buying it from Russia anyway if we keep up all the sanctions. They're going to have to adapt). Russia's prize wont be worth as much.

IMO you havent explained why we'd 'effectively approve' of Russia's continual invasions.
 

Lutherf

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Why do that? If we keep up the sanctions, their economy and standard of living sucks. And if nothing else, it keeps them from advancing into any other countries. We're at 3 now. Chechnya, Crimea, Ukraine....

We dont need to reverse it. The longer the fighting goes on, hopefully more Ukrainian civilians will get out and unfortunately but critically...more infrastructure will be destroyed. Russia wont have the $$ or resources to fix it. IMO if it looks like Ukraine will fall, they should destroy the natural gas pipeline(s). (Yes, the EU wont like that...too bad, they wont be buying it from Russia anyway if we keep up all the sanctions. They're going to have to adapt). Russia's prize wont be worth as much.

IMO you havent explained why we'd 'effectively approve' of Russia's continual invasions.
You don't understand that politicians regularly say one thing for political effect while doing stuff that never accomplishes what they say they're going to do?
 

phoenix2020

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Ah...no, I'd still call what our sanctions are currently doing to Russia a good deal stronger than "moderate" based on their observable effect. That seems a better way to go about it than arbitrarily setting out requirements for just how many countries have to not buy oil, or the like.

I'm not sure how you draw a comparison to North Korea. Sure, we imposed "sanctions" on both, but different things are different. Different countries, different leaders, different goals on all sides, and a complete lack by North Korea of an immediate need to fund a war of aggression already stretching its forces thin in a foreign country.

One could spend days listing all the differences between the two.
Yes, but the North Korean example still proves a very important point: sanctions matter only when they compel the leadership of a nation-state to change course. Present-day Russia is a semi-authoritarian state. Do you think a few hundred or thousand people marching in the street threatens Putin's degree of control? Do you think Russians being deprived of iPhones and modern cars, but still having plenty of food, water, shelter, electricity and entertainment thanks to both internal industry and assistance from other friendly nations, will cause Russians to rise up and literally depose Putin? Perhaps you do. I don't think it's even close.

Now if China were to SEA: their shared border with Russia and stop all trade--and if the EU were to actually decide to sacrifice SOMETHING and go without Russian oil and natural gas, cold turkey, then it could be a very different story.

And even then, the North Korean examples shows that with a strong enough grasp on power, and a sufficiently adoring or fearful population, the absolute tightest of sanctions can be completely ineffective. Look at our fellow Trumpers - they'd follow their idol to their own graves before even entertaining rising up to depose him.
 

SenorXm/Sirius

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Russians are standing in line for essentials and necessities again.. Putin got his wish, the USSR is back...
 

Lursa

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You don't understand that politicians regularly say one thing for political effect while doing stuff that never accomplishes what they say they're going to do?
That does not support the rationale behind what I'm writing. I'm not talking about what they say, I'm talking about legitimate consequences, legitimate cause and effect. Where is your 'rationale' supporting any reason to relax sanctions and let them continue, in effect, 'rewarding' them, positively reinforcing their invasion, opening the door to more? That would be negative for all Europe, the US, Canada, etc.
 

Lutherf

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That does not support the rationale behind what I'm writing. I'm not talking about what they say, I'm talking about legitimate consequences, legitimate cause and effect. Where is your 'rationale' supporting any reason to relax sanctions and let them continue, in effect, 'rewarding' them, positively reinforcing their invasion, opening the door to more? That would be negative for all Europe, the US, Canada, etc.
Let me explain how this works. Despot A invades part of a foreign nation and claims that he has a hiostorical right to that territory. Politician B decries the invasion and imposes "strict sanctions" such as Despot A being prohibited from receiving anything but humanitarian assistance from B's nation. Politician B later discovers that he needs despot A's assistance in a deal with another nation so Politician B "sells" military and /or financial aid packages to nation C which then sends then to Despot A. What's happening there is that Politician B is talking out his ass with regard to the sanctions and, while he might oppose Despot A publicly, he is supporting him covertly.
 

Lursa

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Let me explain how this works. Despot A invades part of a foreign nation and claims that he has a hiostorical right to that territory. Politician B decries the invasion and imposes "strict sanctions" such as Despot A being prohibited from receiving anything but humanitarian assistance from B's nation. Politician B later discovers that he needs despot A's assistance in a deal with another nation so Politician B "sells" military and /or financial aid packages to nation C which then sends then to Despot A. What's happening there is that Politician B is talking out his ass with regard to the sanctions and, while he might oppose Despot A publicly, he is supporting him covertly.

It's a matter of weight. And I pointed out the likely course...which would be very negative...that would be worse than some 'deal.'

And that's why IMO your 'theory' fails. It's in no one's but Russia's best interests to let them keep retrying the Domino theory and growing stronger and gaining more land and resources.

And re: the historical part, the Ukrainians have made it very clear that they as a majority want to remain independent.

"Covertly" any deal isnt going to override those things.
 

Luce

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This is conspiracy, my theory, on why Ukraine was attacked by Putin, why the attack was so lackadaisical, why Biden's first instinct was to offer Zelensky asylum and why nobody of consequence is doing anything more than moderate to middling sanctions in an effort to stop the invasion.
The ruble is barely more valuable than toilet paper, in literal terms.

Middling sanctions? LOL.
 

Lutherf

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The ruble is barely more valuable than toilet paper, in literal terms.

Middling sanctions? LOL.
Yes, middling at best. Have the sanctions caused Putin to stop anything? Heck, even his yacht was pulled back before all this started. He knew damned well what was coming.
 

Lursa

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Yes, middling at best. Have the sanctions caused Putin to stop anything? Heck, even his yacht was pulled back before all this started. He knew damned well what was coming.

Did you expect it to work this fast? Biden even said 'wait a month'. It takes time for economic sanctions to work, come on, that's Geopolitics 101. :rolleyes:
 

Lutherf

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Did you expect it to work this fast? Biden even said 'wait a month'. It takes time for economic sanctions to work, come on, that's Geopolitics 101. :rolleyes:
I get that but everyone on the other side also needs to understand that while we're waiting for an effect that may or may not materialize we've got people losing homes, families being separated and lives being lost. How much of that stuff are you willing to tolerate before doing something that would be more likely to have an immediate effect? Will 10,000 lives lost be your threshold? Half a nation totally devastated? What would you have everyone else give up so that you can feel comfortable?
 

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Wow what an absurd conspiracy theory. At least you have the sense to put it in the correct forum.
So desparate to make Putin/Trump, instead all about Biden's failures and betrayal...it's sickening.
 

Lursa

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I get that but everyone on the other side also needs to understand that while we're waiting for an effect that may or may not materialize we've got people losing homes, families being separated and lives being lost.

Yup. And those people need to leave the country and just leave behind those that are willing to fight. It's a terrible thing. But if you dont stop it here, then it will just happen to the next country and the next.

How much of that stuff are you willing to tolerate before doing something that would be more likely to have an immediate effect? Will 10,000 lives lost be your threshold? Half a nation totally devastated? What would you have everyone else give up so that you can feel comfortable?

I'm not willing to go to war with Russia. It's not my decision but I dont have a # threshold of lives...it's not on me, I didnt start it but for the long game and overall global security...that's why I want them all to just leave the country...leave Russia with destroyed infrastructure and the guerillas willing to keep costing Russia lives and $$.

LOL you went in a silly circle. I'm willing to 'tolerate' plenty since I'm looking at the long term (and let's be honest, it's not the US) and not willing to weaken to feel comfortable :rolleyes:

You OTOH, invented a CT so that YOU could feel comfortable taking the stance you choose. You invented something to justify that. You worked backwards, like a lot of religious people do to explain evolution, lol.
 

Lutherf

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Yup. And those people need to leave the country and just leave behind those that are willing to fight. It's a terrible thing. But if you dont stop it here, then it will just happen to the next country and the next.



I'm not willing to go to war with Russia. It's not my decision but I dont have a # threshold of lives...it's not on me, I didnt start it but for the long game and overall global security...that's why I want them all to just leave the country...leave Russia with destroyed infrastructure and the guerillas willing to keep costing Russia lives and $$.

LOL you went in a silly circle. I'm willing to 'tolerate' plenty since I'm looking at the long term (and let's be honest, it's not the US) and not willing to weaken to feel comfortable :rolleyes:

You OTOH, invented a CT so that YOU could feel comfortable taking the stance you choose. You invented something to justify that. You worked backwards, like a lot of religious people do to explain evolution, lol.
Like you said, it's not on you and you seem to think that if we just let things go it never will be on you. Yeah, it's you that's the focus of all your thinking.

As far as religion, I'll pray for you.
 
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