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Why Trump Could Be a Problem for Republicans Long After He’s Gone

Dittohead not!

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Why Trump Could Be a Problem for Republicans Long After He’s Gone

That’s because, as political scientists have noted over the years, political party identification is a notoriously “sticky” thing. Yes, Democrats can turn into Republicans and vice versa, but it doesn’t happen a whole lot and it typically doesn’t happen quickly.

To the extent that Trump is turning young voters away from the party, the GOP could find itself suffering lower support in coming election cycles from voters whose political perceptions were formed in an era dominated by Trump. And he is turning them away from the party. In droves.

In a McClatchy-Marist poll conducted this week, for example, voters aged 18 to 29 preferred Clinton to Trump by a more than 3-to-1 margin, 53 percent to 17 percent. When the poll was broadened to include Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Trump came in fourth place, with just 9 percent of the vote. (Clinton still won, with 41 percent of the vote, followed by Johnson with 23 percent and Stein with 16 percent.)

Trump came in 4th, behind not only Hillary but the third party nominees as well, and these are voters who will be part of the electorate for a long, long time to come.

If Trump really set out to see how much damage he could do to the party, he's doing a bang up job of it.
 

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Why Trump Could Be a Problem for Republicans Long After He’s Gone



Trump came in 4th, behind not only Hillary but the third party nominees as well, and these are voters who will be part of the electorate for a long, long time to come.

If Trump really set out to see how much damage he could do to the party, he's doing a bang up job of it.

I don't think Trump will be that big of a problem long term outside of how he affects this election. Republican leadership has either refused to support him or nominally supported him and then rebuked him after every ridiculous thing that he says. By not going to bat fully for Trump, I think they're pretty shielded from letting him drag them down in the future.
 

Dittohead not!

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I don't think Trump will be that big of a problem long term outside of how he affects this election. Republican leadership has either refused to support him or nominally supported him and then rebuked him after every ridiculous thing that he says. By not going to bat fully for Trump, I think they're pretty shielded from letting him drag them down in the future.

That depends on how many young voters see who the Republicans are running as their candidate and decide to join the Democrats.
 

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The bigger issue for the GOP is demographics. When you set out to alienate just about every demographic but angry, older white males then you are going to have a problem. The GOP has increasingly become the "pro white" party. When white nationalism is your bread and butter and all other demographics are growing faster...well math is math.
 

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I don't think Trump will be that big of a problem long term outside of how he affects this election. Republican leadership has either refused to support him or nominally supported him and then rebuked him after every ridiculous thing that he says. By not going to bat fully for Trump, I think they're pretty shielded from letting him drag them down in the future.

I don't think the GOP base feels or thinks the same way as the GOP leadership...and I don't see that changing after the election. At least not until the leadership and the RINO's are fully purged from the party and replaced with conservative extremists.

That's why this is the perfect election for a third party to gain legitimacy. If they don't do it now....they might not get another chance like this.
 

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Why Trump Could Be a Problem for Republicans Long After He’s Gone



Trump came in 4th, behind not only Hillary but the third party nominees as well, and these are voters who will be part of the electorate for a long, long time to come.

If Trump really set out to see how much damage he could do to the party, he's doing a bang up job of it.

Your lean says libertarian. This should make you happy. Down with the GOP, but wait, what will replace it?


This is the sole reason why I support him.
 

ttwtt78640

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I don't think the GOP base feels or thinks the same way as the GOP leadership...and I don't see that changing after the election. At least not until the leadership and the RINO's are fully purged from the party and replaced with conservative extremists.

That's why this is the perfect election for a third party to gain legitimacy. If they don't do it now....they might not get another chance like this.

A party is hard to start (or change) from the top down.
 

Hawkeye10

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The Rebellion will almost for sure be a bigger problem for the Elite no matter what happens in Nov.

I am in my HAPPY PLACE!

:2dancing:
 

kanabco

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Why Trump Could Be a Problem for Republicans Long After He’s Gone



Trump came in 4th, behind not only Hillary but the third party nominees as well, and these are voters who will be part of the electorate for a long, long time to come.

If Trump really set out to see how much damage he could do to the party, he's doing a bang up job of it.
You may laugh but plenty of politicos cocktailing at my house have raised the idea that the Clinton's set this up. The longer we go the harder it is to be circumspect about the prospect.
No tinfoil hats please... please no.
 

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A party is hard to start (or change) from the top down.

Just getting their foot in the door seems to be the hardest part. I don't know about the libertarian party...but the Green party could try to pick up some of the states that Clinton doesn't need to win...especially ones that favored Bernie...and perhaps gain legitimacy that way.
 

Dittohead not!

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You may laugh but plenty of politicos cocktailing at my house have raised the idea that the Clinton's set this up. The longer we go the harder it is to be circumspect about the prospect.
No tinfoil hats please... please no.

I'm not saying it's true, but neither am I laughing it off. It certainly is a bit of interesting speculation, and nowhere near as implausible as the tinfoil hat conspiracy theories.

Donald Trump talked politics with Bill Clinton weeks before launching 2016 bid

Hmmm... could be?
 

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Why Trump Could Be a Problem for Republicans Long After He’s Gone



Trump came in 4th, behind not only Hillary but the third party nominees as well, and these are voters who will be part of the electorate for a long, long time to come.

If Trump really set out to see how much damage he could do to the party, he's doing a bang up job of it.

I agree to the fact that you do not see many Republicans switching to Democrats or vice versa. But what has happened over the years is the rise of the independents. Thanks to Gallup and Pew Research they can be tracked over the years. D Democrat, R Republican, I Independent
1950 D 45, R 31, I 18
1955 D 45, R 32, I 18
1960 D 46, R 29, I 23
1965 D 50, R 25, I 24
1970 D 43, R 27, I 28
1975 D 43, R 21, I 33
1980 D 45, R 23, I 29
1985 D 34, R 32, I 29
1990 D 34, R 32, I 30
1995 D 30, R 31, I 33
2000 D 33, R 28, I 30
2005 D 33, R 29, I 30
2010 D 33, R 25, I 35
2015 D 32, R 23, I 39
2016 D 31, R 28, I 39

If one uses 1950 as the benchmark, the Democrats have dropped 14 points, the Republicans dropped 3 points and independents rose 21 points. It would seem looking at the above numbers that the Reagan years were banner years into taking Democrats and turning them into Republicans. Although the possibility exist that the Democrats moved to the independent ranks and the independent switched to Republican. Regardless, the GOP high water mark is the 32% achieved in 1955 under Eisenhower, 1985 under Reagan and in 1990 under Bush the elder. The Democratic high water mark was 1965 under LBJ at 50% of the total electorate.

The GOP low mark was 21% in 1975 after Watergate while the Democratic low mark is 30% set in 1995 the year after the Republicans reversed 40 years of Democratic control in the house of representatives. It is also interesting to note that at 39% independents are at their highest level ever. Actually I think what we are seeing is as time goes by the dissatisfaction with both major political parties. This movement by one party to the extreme left and the other to the extreme right have left more and more Americans without a political home. The question is with these young folks, is it Trump that is alienating them or the political philosophy of the Democrats that is drawing them? I guess we will know in ten years or so.
 

Dittohead not!

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I agree to the fact that you do not see many Republicans switching to Democrats or vice versa. But what has happened over the years is the rise of the independents. Thanks to Gallup and Pew Research they can be tracked over the years. D Democrat, R Republican, I Independent
1950 D 45, R 31, I 18
1955 D 45, R 32, I 18
1960 D 46, R 29, I 23
1965 D 50, R 25, I 24
1970 D 43, R 27, I 28
1975 D 43, R 21, I 33
1980 D 45, R 23, I 29
1985 D 34, R 32, I 29
1990 D 34, R 32, I 30
1995 D 30, R 31, I 33
2000 D 33, R 28, I 30
2005 D 33, R 29, I 30
2010 D 33, R 25, I 35
2015 D 32, R 23, I 39
2016 D 31, R 28, I 39

If one uses 1950 as the benchmark, the Democrats have dropped 14 points, the Republicans dropped 3 points and independents rose 21 points. It would seem looking at the above numbers that the Reagan years were banner years into taking Democrats and turning them into Republicans. Although the possibility exist that the Democrats moved to the independent ranks and the independent switched to Republican. Regardless, the GOP high water mark is the 32% achieved in 1955 under Eisenhower, 1985 under Reagan and in 1990 under Bush the elder. The Democratic high water mark was 1965 under LBJ at 50% of the total electorate.

The GOP low mark was 21% in 1975 after Watergate while the Democratic low mark is 30% set in 1995 the year after the Republicans reversed 40 years of Democratic control in the house of representatives. It is also interesting to note that at 39% independents are at their highest level ever. Actually I think what we are seeing is as time goes by the dissatisfaction with both major political parties. This movement by one party to the extreme left and the other to the extreme right have left more and more Americans without a political home. The question is with these young folks, is it Trump that is alienating them or the political philosophy of the Democrats that is drawing them? I guess we will know in ten years or so.

The rise of independents could possibly break us out of the partisan gridlock that has gripped the nation of late.
 

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The rise of independents could possibly break us out of the partisan gridlock that has gripped the nation of late.

I suppose it is possible. But I am not holding my breath. As long as Republicans and Democrats continue to put the good of their political party over the good of the nation and they owe their loyalty to their political party over loyalty to country, it isn't going to happen.

With most people believing they only have two choices when they vote, the R or the D, this will continue on and on and on. With so many safe districts created in the House, there are only around 40 seats that are really contested from election to election. That is unless the party in control really peeves off the American people as they did in 1994, 2006, 2010. These so called sea change elections is the direct results of independents getting really, really angry at the party in power and they vote them out.
 
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50 Top GOP Officials: Trump Would Be 'Most Reckless President'
A blistering letter signed by 50 Republican national security officials states that not one of them will vote for Donald Trump come November, declaring the GOP nominee "lacks the character, values, and experience to be President."

The letter describes Trump's lack of knowledge of the Constitution and U.S. laws and lambastes the candidate for appearing to have "no interest in educating himself."

Among those who signed the letter are former Deputy Attorney General Donald Ayer, former Deputy National Security Adviser for Strategic Planning Robert Blackwill and former Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff.

"A president must be disciplined, control emotions, and act only after reflection and careful deliberation," the letter states. "In our judgment, Mr. Trump has none of these critical qualities ... We are convinced that in the Oval Office, he would be the most reckless President in American history."


There are lots of high powered names on this list....Wowser.

50 Top GOP Officials: Trump Would Be '''Most Reckless President''' - NBC News
 

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The Libertarians, of course.

I don't think the GOP will be replaced by Libertarians. The Dems and Repubs have infrastructure going from the whitehouse down to the local dogcather in every single city in the country. I think all this will just force a rebranding of the GOP.
 

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I don't think the GOP will be replaced by Libertarians. The Dems and Repubs have infrastructure going from the whitehouse down to the local dogcather in every single city in the country. I think all this will just force a rebranding of the GOP.

I am not sure about that either. But if the GOP is going to grow back it needs to be more like the libertarians: Socially liberal, secular, less angry. In other words they need to shed the Tea Party they invented.
 

poweRob

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I am not sure about that either. But if the GOP is going to grow back it needs to be more like the libertarians: Socially liberal, secular, less angry. In other words they need to shed the Tea Party they invented.

Pretty much. Fiscally they tend to talk like libertarians then not act like them. Then get overwhelmed by social conservatives with their incredibly divisive wedge issues and that noisy lead buries the whole fiscal conservative platform.
 

Dittohead not!

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I don't think the GOP will be replaced by Libertarians. The Dems and Repubs have infrastructure going from the whitehouse down to the local dogcather in every single city in the country. I think all this will just force a rebranding of the GOP.

Maybe.
A rebranding is in order, IMO.
 

kanabco

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Pretty much. Fiscally they tend to talk like libertarians then not act like them. Then get overwhelmed by social conservatives with their incredibly divisive wedge issues and that noisy lead buries the whole fiscal conservative platform.

Rob are you a Republican?
I was. I mean I was raised as a Republican and taught the democrats were about big government... this right after WWII and one would have to agree that the Democrats were too close to communism to tolerate. But we did not get angry about them. We were republicans and they were democrats, that's all, and we would tke care of things in the voting booth.
However today there is too much division and too much hate. I cannot be a Republican today. Not that i have become a liberal but then... maybe I have.
It is frustrating to be a republican anymore, that's all.
 

countryboy

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That depends on how many young voters see who the Republicans are running as their candidate and decide to join the Democrats.

Conservatives don't turn liberal. They might stay home, but they never go full retard. ;)
 

poweRob

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Rob are you a Republican?
I was. I mean I was raised as a Republican and taught the democrats were about big government... this right after WWII and one would have to agree that the Democrats were too close to communism to tolerate. But we did not get angry about them. We were republicans and they were democrats, that's all, and we would tke care of things in the voting booth.
However today there is too much division and too much hate. I cannot be a Republican today. Not that i have become a liberal but then... maybe I have.
It is frustrating to be a republican anymore, that's all.

I'm pretty left as indicated by my avatar. Although I did grow up in the deep red of rural Georgia and have an understanding of where Republicans are coming from on many things. I welcome a good debate on how we fiscally move forward but I have a hard time tolerating the discussion of social conservativism that is constantly being forefronted in the GOP as a massive and highly annoying distraction that divides us all. It's why I have much more respect for Libertarians than Republicans. Even though I disagree with Libertarians fiscally, they have their eye on the ball and are pushing for it rather than playing idiotic, divisive social con games.
 
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