Why the U.S. Needs to Act Fast to Prevent Russia from Weaponizing Food Supply Chains

[NWRatCon]

Why the U.S. Needs to Act Fast to Prevent Russia from Weaponizing Food Supply Chains (Opinion, Politico)​

"Amid the chaos of this conflict and the threat to Ukrainian lives and independence, one critical implication has been grossly underexamined: how Russia could rely on China’s support to weaponize global food supply chains. Without a swift response from the West, Moscow and Beijing could soon have the capacity to upend the world’s economy and significantly alter power dynamics across the globe."

Ukraine has long been described as "the breadbasket of Europe".

The rich dark soil and the vast fields of wheat and other food products have earned Ukraine the nickname "bread basket of Europe."

According to the CIA World Factbook, Ukraine produced 25% of all agricultural output in the former Soviet Union. Today, Ukraine exports substantial amounts of grain, vegetables, sugar beets, sunflower seeds, milk and meat.

Exports (including non-food exports) go to Russia, 20%; the countries of the European Union, 17%; China, 7%; Turkey, 6%; and the U.S. 4%.

In addition, food processing, especially sugar processing, is an important industrial segment. Nearly one out of four workers in Ukraine is employed in agriculture or forestry related endeavors. (Infoplease)

Not only only is Russia deliberately targeting food warehouses in besieged cities (itself a war crime), but the war has disrupted the planting season. "The importance of Ukraine’s remarkably fertile soil for global grain supply has gained some attention, amid concerns the conflict will lead to sharp price increases. But the reality is Russia’s control of Ukrainian grain shipments will likely have far greater consequences."

After just one day of the invasion, Russia effectively controlled nearly a third of the world’s wheat exports, three quarters of the world’s sunflower oil exports, and substantial amounts of barley, soy and other grain supply chains. Furthermore, Ukraine alone accounts for 16 percent of the world’s corn exports and has been one of the fastest growing corn producers — a dynamic particularly critical to meeting China’s rapidly growing demand for corn. Importantly, while hydrocarbon production can be immediately surged in different places to meet shifts in requirements, grain production cannot be surged in the same way, and even a major expansion cannot make up for the sheer volume of agricultural output that Russia now controls either directly or indirectly.

"...in the background, Russia is completing a hostile takeover of the country’s grain-rich regions and their associated transportation infrastructure. Critically, however, Russia does not even need to fully control Ukraine’s agricultural lands to weaponize the food supply chains they anchor.

As of Thursday, Russia had closed access to the Sea of Azov, and, irrespective of unsubstantiated Russian claims that two of its commercial ships have been attacked, Ukraine has closed all its commercial ports. Ukrainian grain is now offline.

Amid the shock of Russia’s flagrant violation of Ukrainian sovereignty, this overlooked development — the de facto sanctioning of the global grain market — is cause for deep concern. The question is not whether there will be serious economic effects and critical food shortages in already fragile states. The question is what Russia will do with that.

 

[Mycroft]

Why the U.S. Needs to Act Fast to Prevent Russia from Weaponizing Food Supply Chains (Opinion, Politico)​

"Amid the chaos of this conflict and the threat to Ukrainian lives and independence, one critical implication has been grossly underexamined: how Russia could rely on China’s support to weaponize global food supply chains. Without a swift response from the West, Moscow and Beijing could soon have the capacity to upend the world’s economy and significantly alter power dynamics across the globe."

Ukraine has long been described as "the breadbasket of Europe".

Not only only is Russia deliberately targeting food warehouses in besieged cities (itself a war crime), but the war has disrupted the planting season. "The importance of Ukraine’s remarkably fertile soil for global grain supply has gained some attention, amid concerns the conflict will lead to sharp price increases. But the reality is Russia’s control of Ukrainian grain shipments will likely have far greater consequences."

What is the EU doing about this? Shouldn't they be acting faster than the US?

 

[Luce]

What is the EU doing about this? Shouldn't they be acting faster than the US?

Yes, they should be growing loads and loads of wheat in Norway.

UNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNG

 

[Mycroft]

Yes, they should be growing loads and loads of wheat in Norway.

UNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNG

Is that what you think the US should be doing for them? I think that's a good idea...though we'll grow our own instead of growing it in Norway. Then we can sell it to them.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Since they apparently can't defeat the Ukrainians on the battlefield, the Russians have taken to [again] starving the Ukrainian population.

Russian aircraft are targeting Ukrainian food warehouses. What the Russian military is best at seems to be committing war crimes.

 

[Luce]

Is that what you think the US should be doing for them? I think that's a good idea...though we'll grow our own instead of growing it in Norway. Then we can sell it to them.

Yes, that's kind of the whole point.

 

[Mycroft]

Yes, that's kind of the whole point.

Actually, that article has other points.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Actually, that article has other points.

Articulate them.

 

[Juin]

Since they apparently can't defeat the Ukrainians on the battlefield, the Russians have taken to [again] starving the Ukrainian population.

.

Allow me to remind you that Ukraine also blocked the waters of the Dnieper from Crimeans since 2014

 

[Juin]

Not only only is Russia deliberately targeting food warehouses in besieged cities (itself a war crime),

How did you establish the veracity of what you are asserting above?

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Allow me to remind you that Ukraine also blocked the waters of the Dnieper from Crimeans since 2014

And...?

 

[Rogue Valley]

Allow me to remind you that Ukraine also blocked the waters of the Dnieper from Crimeans since 2014

Allow me to remind you that the water was Ukrainian water, and Russia had just stolen Crimea.

 

[Mycroft]

Articulate them.

Read it.

 

[Juin]

Allow me to remind you that the water was Ukrainian water, and Russia had just stolen Crimea.

War sucks.

Strange things happen in war. I also read today that the gas is chugging through Ukraine's gas pipelines at some 105million cubic meters per day. That is maximum capacity. Contractual volumes as a matter of fact. That be excellent performance by Team Zelensky. First, Zelensky Defense successfully sacked Team Putin on Nord Stream 2. Then scored a field goal on gas transit through Ukraine.

Now I believe, if I recall right, you opined in some post, maybe in a moment of stress and fatigue, that you would blow up the gas pipelines through Ukraine. I have been thinking about that. Exactly how long are the gas pipelines through Ukraine gonna be operating?

Both the Ukrainian government and the Russian government, as well as European customers want the gas transit through Ukraine to be secure. So they will do everything to protect it from interruption.

But what about other non state players?

 

[Rogue Valley]

Read it.

You made the claim.... now articulate them.

 

[NWRatCon]

You made the claim.... now articulate them.

I think that is a forlorn expectation. He hasn't the capacity or inclination to do so.

 

[Rogue Valley]

I think that is a forlorn expectation. He hasn't the capacity or inclination to do so.

Seems we all know how Mycroft operates.