Why Some Top Republicans think They Will Still Have the Last Laugh (1 Viewer)

[CurrentAffairs]

The five reasons are listed in this new article. Interesting reading.

http://time-blog.com/allen_report/2006/10/why_some_top_republicans_think.html

 

[ALiberalModerate]

There you go with that Crystal Ball...

 

[CurrentAffairs]

There you go with that Crystal Ball...

:lol: I didn't write the article.

 

[ALiberalModerate]

:lol: I didn't write the article.

Yeah and I don't write the district by district polls showing Republicans losing 20 to 30 seats either.

It's only a week away now. We will just all have to see what will happen. Either way it goes, its not like its going to be the end of the world. I have found that regardless of which party is in power my life pretty much stays the same.

 

[Kandahar]

The five reasons are listed in this new article. Interesting reading.

http://time-blog.com/allen_report/2006/10/why_some_top_republicans_think.html

They're entitled to their opinion, and in fact, I won't say that they're wrong. They still have a respectable chance (although less than 50-50) of retaining both houses of Congress. I, for one, will not be "measuring the drapes" until after the election.

However, their opinion is certainly in the minority, and the overall trends look good for the Democrats right now.

 

[danarhea]

They're entitled to their opinion, and in fact, I won't say that they're wrong. They still have a respectable chance (although less than 50-50) of retaining both houses of Congress. I, for one, will not be "measuring the drapes" until after the election.

However, their opinion is certainly in the minority, and the overall trends look good for the Democrats right now.

Races DO tighten up during the last week, and that is already beginning to happen now. In another thread, I predicted the GOP retaining the House by one seat, but I do not see that happening now. However, I do believe the Democratic takeover will be by a minimal amount, but that is indeed a takeover. As to the Senate, Allen is not looking good in Virginia, but Menendez is not looking good in New Jersey either, which would make both races a wash if the incumbents lose. I still predict the GOP retaining the Senate by virtue of Cheney's tiebreaker. 50-50 in the Senate.

Democrats win the House - barely. Republicans keep the Senate - barely. No mandate for either party. Gridlock in place. That is good for 3 reasons:

1) It makes Bush a lame duck president.

2) It keeps the extremists on both sides of the aisle in check.

3) Both parties will be too busy fighting with each other to be able to screw America over worse than they already have.

 

[Kandahar]

As to the Senate, Allen is not looking good in Virginia, but Menendez is not looking good in New Jersey either, which would make both races a wash if the incumbents lose.

Menendez has a small lead in every recent poll I've seen. And the markets give him about an 80% chance of winning.

 

[danarhea]

Menendez has a small lead in every recent poll I've seen. And the markets give him about an 80% chance of winning.

Yes, that is true, although the Republicans are making it a tight race there. In Virginia also, Allen has been leading, but Webb is now in the lead. If somehow, both races were reversed, the race is wash.

For Democrats to take the Senate, they have to hold New Jersey, and then take 2 of 3 in Virginia, Missouri, and Tennessee. I dont see that happening, but I do see the Dems coming close enough to call it a 50-50 split. One thing the GOP does have is a much more organized GOTV effort than the Democrats do. If not for that, I believe the Dems chances to take the Senate would be at least even. The Republican 72 hour effort in the last days before elections is pretty awesome, although the Dems are better organized for GOTV than they have been in the past. In the end, I think it is going to boil down to who has the better effort on the ground, and I have to give that to the Republicans. Still, a 50-50 split was almost unheard of a couple of months ago, so the Dems can still spin this as a victory if that is what happens.

 

[AcePylut]

Lets not forget that the Dems are probably going to lose one of their seats they shouldn't lose. Dems need to pick up one more seat than all people are saying, to win control of the Senate.

That being the seat held by former Democrat Senator Joe Lieberman, which will most likely be held by the newly minted Independent Senator Joe Lieberman.

 

[Mr.Clover]

Rasmussen showed Kean ahead by 1 point over Menendez, however. I think Menendez and Allen will keep their seats.

 

[danarhea]

Lets not forget that the Dems are probably going to lose one of their seats they shouldn't lose. Dems need to pick up one more seat than all people are saying, to win control of the Senate.

That being the seat held by former Democrat Senator Joe Lieberman, which will most likely be held by the newly minted Independent Senator Joe Lieberman.

The Lieberman seat does not matter, since he will be caususing with the Democrats if he wins. So this does not change the formula. However, there is always the possibility that Lieberman could switch to the GOP in the future, although I dont think that is going to happen.

 

[AcePylut]

The Lieberman seat does not matter, since he will be caususing with the Democrats if he wins. So this does not change the formula. However, there is always the possibility that Lieberman could switch to the GOP in the future, although I dont think that is going to happen.

What I'm referring to is that when they give the Senate rolls, there will be (hypothetically speaking) 50 Republicans 49 Democrats 1 Independent... instead of 50 Republicans 50 Democrats.

The DNC will not be able to count Liberman as a "democrat" in saying that "the democrats have taken control of the Senate".

Yeah, Lieberman will most likely vote along Democrat party lines a great majority of the time, so in actuality it's a moot point. But in the realm of grandstanding about "taking control", it matters.

Of course, should Lieberman win, I wonder if the Democrats will ask him to rejoin the party. I wonder if Joe would accept. I would hope that the democrats don't ask him to rejoin, and if they did I would hope that Joe refuses. If the DNC does ask him to rejoin, what little respect for the DNC that I have will be lessened even further. Should joe accept, what respect I have for him would be diminished.

 

[Kandahar]

What I'm referring to is that when they give the Senate rolls, there will be (hypothetically speaking) 50 Republicans 49 Democrats 1 Independent... instead of 50 Republicans 50 Democrats.

Actually 2 independents. Bernie Sanders is going to win Jim Jeffords' seat in Vermont.

The DNC will not be able to count Liberman as a "democrat" in saying that "the democrats have taken control of the Senate".

Ya they will. As long as he votes with them on procedural votes, that's exactly what "control" of the Senate entails. The Dems would elect the Majority Leader and chair all of the committees if there were 49 Dems + 2 Independents who voted with them.

 

[danarhea]

What I'm referring to is that when they give the Senate rolls, there will be (hypothetically speaking) 50 Republicans 49 Democrats 1 Independent... instead of 50 Republicans 50 Democrats.

The DNC will not be able to count Liberman as a "democrat" in saying that "the democrats have taken control of the Senate".

Yeah, Lieberman will most likely vote along Democrat party lines a great majority of the time, so in actuality it's a moot point. But in the realm of grandstanding about "taking control", it matters.

Of course, should Lieberman win, I wonder if the Democrats will ask him to rejoin the party. I wonder if Joe would accept. I would hope that the democrats don't ask him to rejoin, and if they did I would hope that Joe refuses. If the DNC does ask him to rejoin, what little respect for the DNC that I have will be lessened even further. Should joe accept, what respect I have for him would be diminished.

Actually, it is who independents choose to caucus with that will determine the Senate's makeup. If Lieberman and Bernie Sanders, both independents, caucus with the Democrats, and there are 49 Democrats and 49 Republicans holding Senate seats, control passes to the Democratic party, by virtue of 51 members. If either Independent caucuses with the Republicans (unlikely) then Republicans keep the Senate by virtue of 50 members and Cheney's tiebreaker.

 

[Navy Pride]

Yeah and I don't write the district by district polls showing Republicans losing 20 to 30 seats either.

It's only a week away now. We will just all have to see what will happen. Either way it goes, its not like its going to be the end of the world. I have found that regardless of which party is in power my life pretty much stays the same.

Yeah those polls are just like the exit polls at the 2004 presidential election showing Kerry winning in a landslide hoping Republicans, Moderates, and Independents would stay home.......Didn't work then and won't work now..........Your hero Kerry energized the republcan base today with his stupid comments about our troops in Iraq...........

 

[disneydude]

Yeah those polls are just like the exit polls at the 2004 presidential election showing Kerry winning in a landslide hoping Republicans, Moderates, and Independents would stay home.......Didn't work then and won't work now..........Your hero Kerry energized the republcan base today with his stupid comments about our troops in Iraq...........

In the words of the 80's band Dead or Alive:

"You spin me right round baby right round...like a record baby....."

 

[Demsmart]

Yeah those polls are just like the exit polls at the 2004 presidential election showing Kerry winning in a landslide hoping Republicans, Moderates, and Independents would stay home.......Didn't work then and won't work now..........Your hero Kerry energized the republcan base today with his stupid comments about our troops in Iraq...........

While I agree that Kerry's remarks were stupid, I think it was taken out of context. I don't think he meant it to degrade our servicemen. For god sake, he was in the military. The REDUDLICANS just want to make nothing out of something because their losing their as*** off.:spin:

 

[ALiberalModerate]

Yeah those polls are just like the exit polls at the 2004 presidential election showing Kerry winning in a landslide hoping Republicans, Moderates, and Independents would stay home.......Didn't work then and won't work now..........Your hero Kerry energized the republcan base today with his stupid comments about our troops in Iraq...........

Yeah, polling is nothing but a big conspiracy....:roll:

Polling did not show Kerry winning by a landslide. It showed a tossup. Moreover, I can't stand Kerry. I think he is as unlikable as it comes. However, I cannot see where his stupid remarks would sway the election. Republicans have more than enough at stake to motivate them to go to the polls anyway.

 

[Navy Pride]

The Lieberman seat does not matter, since he will be caususing with the Democrats if he wins. So this does not change the formula. However, there is always the possibility that Lieberman could switch to the GOP in the future, although I dont think that is going to happen.

I would not be to sure of that if I were you.......

 

[Navy Pride]

Yeah, polling is nothing but a big conspiracy....:roll:

Polling did not show Kerry winning by a landslide. It showed a tossup. Moreover, I can't stand Kerry. I think he is as unlikable as it comes. However, I cannot see where his stupid remarks would sway the election. Republicans have more than enough at stake to motivate them to go to the polls anyway.

The exit polls showed Kerry winning the election and you know it......

 

[Navy Pride]

While I agree that Kerry's remarks were stupid, I think it was taken out of context. I don't think he meant it to degrade our servicemen. For god sake, he was in the military. The REDUDLICANS just want to make nothing out of something because their losing their as*** off.:spin:

And he has been degrading our military since 1971............