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Why Russia and NATO will never go to war in our lifetimes...

Abbazorkzog

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Could Russia REALLY go to war with NATO?

Could Russia REALLY go to war with NATO?

At first sight, this appears a persuasive case, but on reflection is perhaps slightly less so.

Russia has undoubtedly suffered economically from the global downturn in energy prices and from economic sanctions following the annexation of the Crimea, but the degree of dependence, in particular energy dependence, that Western Europe has on Russia is highly significant.

Why the Black Sea is so important to Russia

The security of co-dependence

For example, the Nord Stream pipeline laid in international waters along the Baltic from Russia to Germany, supplies a significant -- according to EU figures, 38.7% -- proportion of Western Europe's gas needs.

In turn, Russia desperately needs the foreign earnings this generates.

Put another way, Russia rationally could bring much more significant, and cheaper, political pressure to bear by turning off the gas supply: why resort to the chancier option of war?

Cornered Russia

Turkey, on Russia's southern border, joined the military alliance in 1952, and since the end of the Cold War, many of Russia's former Warsaw Pact allies, including Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic States have signed up, too.

Many in Russia want their leader to kick back against this.

Russia has, moreover, always respected a strong leader, and the present incumbent of the Kremlin enjoys levels of popularity -- at least 80% -- that Western politicians can only dream of.

Sabre-rattling is all part of this strongman image, but why risk it all by undertaking that most risky of manoeuvres in international politics: war?



There will be no NATO-Russian war, at least in the traditional sense. At this point, NATO and Russia are like two unruly siblings: they may hate each other, but they are still family. Through all the history they have endured, NATO nations and Russia are too heavily-dependent on one another to chance a confrontation, which Russia would inevitably lose.
 
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joG

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Could Russia REALLY go to war with NATO?

Could Russia REALLY go to war with NATO?

At first sight, this appears a persuasive case, but on reflection is perhaps slightly less so.

Russia has undoubtedly suffered economically from the global downturn in energy prices and from economic sanctions following the annexation of the Crimea, but the degree of dependence, in particular energy dependence, that Western Europe has on Russia is highly significant.

Why the Black Sea is so important to Russia

The security of co-dependence

For example, the Nord Stream pipeline laid in international waters along the Baltic from Russia to Germany, supplies a significant -- according to EU figures, 38.7% -- proportion of Western Europe's gas needs.

In turn, Russia desperately needs the foreign earnings this generates.

Put another way, Russia rationally could bring much more significant, and cheaper, political pressure to bear by turning off the gas supply: why resort to the chancier option of war?

Cornered Russia

Turkey, on Russia's southern border, joined the military alliance in 1952, and since the end of the Cold War, many of Russia's former Warsaw Pact allies, including Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic States have signed up, too.

Many in Russia want their leader to kick back against this.

Russia has, moreover, always respected a strong leader, and the present incumbent of the Kremlin enjoys levels of popularity -- at least 80% -- that Western politicians can only dream of.

Sabre-rattling is all part of this strongman image, but why risk it all by undertaking that most risky of manoeuvres in international politics: war?



There will be no NATO-Russian war, at least in the traditional sense. At this point, NATO and Russia are like two unruly siblings: they may hate each other, but they are still family. Through all the history they have endured, NATO nations and Russia are too heavily-dependent on one another to chance a confrontation, which Russia would inevitably lose.

It is always the structure of the game that defines the optimal path in a negotiation situation. The structure of security is changing and the optima with it. The optimal negotiation strategies will lead to war in the global context as the game is forming. Whether the Russians or NATO will be immediate participants is a matter of chance and not really very important, if it comes to multiple warhead nuclear engagements.
 
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