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Why Republicans are very, very likely to lose the presidency in 2016

Im making the assumption based off historical precedence that an internal deep division in a party dont win presidential elections.

Correlation does not equal causation, TDS. You are also ignoring the fact that this is not a "normal" election, but one that is focused on who is hated the least. You are also ignoring the fact that there is a deep divide among the Dem. electorate (not the Dem. Party, which demands unity to the point of booting anyone who bucks the party line).
 
I agree. Whether it's Trump, Cruz, or some other candidate, there will be a lot of butt hurt and they won't be able to muster enough support for the white house.

The only scenario I see the GOP winning is if Clinton clinches the nomination then the FBI investigation into her emails blows up big and takes her down. If Sanders and Clinton can just avoid shooting themselves in the dick they've got the nomination on lock.

And that is NOT going to happen.

I would rate the GOP's chances of taking the White House at no better than one in five...... and I think that is being really generous.

But let us NOT underestimate the Democrats ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
 
I think it is delusional to expect Hillary Clinton to win anything. She has never won an election that was seriously contested. She polls with an unfavorable rating that is 15-20% higher than the favorable. She can't even convincingly beat a crazy old man yelling "Free Money" at the top of his lungs. In many ways, he looks more sensible than her. If she's not indicted before election day, the chances of her winning are near zero. She would have to get a lot of help to win....A LOT OF HELP!

You are absolutely correct here, Aviator.

You guys don't have to worry about her at all. She doesn't stand a chance.

Pick Donald Trump or Ted Cruz to face her. They'll knock her out of the game.
 
Correlation does not equal causation, TDS. You are also ignoring the fact that this is not a "normal" election, but one that is focused on who is hated the least. You are also ignoring the fact that there is a deep divide among the Dem. electorate (not the Dem. Party, which demands unity to the point of booting anyone who bucks the party line).

I'm pretty sure choosing the least hated candidate is the definition of a normal election.
 
I'm pretty sure choosing the least hated candidate is the definition of a normal election.

That's the definition of most every general for me, pick the one I hate the least.
 
You are absolutely correct here, Aviator.

You guys don't have to worry about her at all. She doesn't stand a chance.

Pick Donald Trump or Ted Cruz to face her. They'll knock her out of the game.

I think we should be more brazen and pick a Nazi, cigarette smoking monkey running on the platform of racism, sexism, genocide, slavery and freedom (liberals hate that concept so much). We'd still win.
 
I think we should be more brazen and pick a Nazi, cigarette smoking monkey running on the platform of racism, sexism, genocide, slavery and freedom (liberals hate that concept so much). We'd still win.

I like that idea...and it is more in keeping with Republican ideals.

Propose it. There will be lots of reception for it.

You guys have got this one sewn up. The Dems do not have a snowballs chance in Antarctica.
 
And that is NOT going to happen.

I would rate the GOP's chances of taking the White House at no better than one in five...... and I think that is being really generous.

But let us NOT underestimate the Democrats ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

I've read quite bit on the issue, and there seems ot be wide agreement that the Dems have between 75% and 89% chance of taking the white house.

i'm no statistician, but that seems about right to me.... if i was a betting man, and I am, I'd put money on the Dem being the next President.
the structural advantages the Dems have right now are too great to bet against them... and it really has little to do with who the individual candidates are.

now stuff can go really haywire in the event of something big happening, like Hilary being indicted, or Bernie dying.... but it's hard to account for that stuff.
 
I like that idea...and it is more in keeping with Republican ideals.

Propose it. There will be lots of reception for it.

You guys have got this one sewn up. The Dems do not have a snowballs chance in Antarctica.

Hey, I see what Ya did there ............:lamo
 
Correlation does not equal causation, TDS.
Nor did I said it does. Hence the whole purpose of it being an ASSUMPTION and it being based off a HISTORICAL PRECEDENCE

You are also ignoring the fact that this is not a "normal" election, but one that is focused on who is hated the least.
No Im not.

You are also ignoring the fact that there is a deep divide among the Dem. electorate (not the Dem. Party, which demands unity to the point of booting anyone who bucks the party line).
And again, no im not.
 
I think we should be more brazen and pick a Nazi, cigarette smoking monkey running on the platform of racism, sexism, genocide, slavery and freedom (liberals hate that concept so much). We'd still win.

Is that really winning though in your mind?
 
I think it is delusional to expect Hillary Clinton to win anything. She has never won an election that was seriously contested. She polls with an unfavorable rating that is 15-20% higher than the favorable. She can't even convincingly beat a crazy old man yelling "Free Money" at the top of his lungs. In many ways, he looks more sensible than her. If she's not indicted before election day, the chances of her winning are near zero. She would have to get a lot of help to win....A LOT OF HELP!

You mean like the type of help that comes from the opposing party demolishing itself before our very eyes?
 
So by that logic, the Dems. will lose this year, since they highly divided as well.... Oops, I used logic... Sorry about that...
Not as bad. Not as much drama.

But, don't mistake this to mean I think the Dems present a positive choice. They don't. They just present the less-whack job choice and will win by default.
 
Not as bad. Not as much drama.

But, don't mistake this to mean I think the Dems present a positive choice. They don't. They just present the less-whack job choice and will win by default.

Actually, out of the 4 front-runners, Cruz is the least "whack-job" candidate...
 
Obama has done a "great" job of politicizing and weaponizing the FEC, the Justice Dept, and basically most of the federal bureaucracy. They don't prosecute people who voted twice or more, they don't prosecute groups intimidating voters, they punish conservatives trying to get IRS non-profit status, and they reject attempts by states to clean up voter registration rolls. The Clinton era motor voter bill has been decimated and according to Pew Charitable Trust, we have 1.8 million registered decreased voters and 2.75 million registered in multiple precincts. There will be rampant illegal voting.
And the leading "Republican" candidate is a Democrat and supporter of most of the Democratic agenda.

I agree that the Democrats should be able to win easily.
 
Obama has done a "great" job of politicizing and weaponizing the FEC, the Justice Dept, and basically most of the federal bureaucracy. They don't prosecute people who voted twice or more, they don't prosecute groups intimidating voters.

Really, they dont?
 
The Democrats are going to win in November. The best that can happen for the Republicans is to come out of the election with a political party that is not so torn it cannot be put back together.

The self-destruction of that party is almost painful to watch.
Why should it matter to you? You, along with the rest of the Communists WANT permanent one party Leftist rule.
 
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