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Why Republicans are very, very likely to lose the presidency in 2016

TheDemSocialist

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Every now and then in American politics, political parties enter their presidential nominating conventions deeply, deeply divided. And when they are deeply divided, they lose.
Conventions, rather than being coronations, turn into battles between rival factions, each with a legitimate hope that it will somehow come away from the convention with its candidate as the nominee. But in the end, the party can only choose one nominee, and thus only one faction can win. That means the other faction goes home dejected and angry. Some of them will vote for another candidate. Some won't vote at all.


This is the Republicans' problem in 2016. At this point in the game, it's increasingly clear the Republican's July convention will be a barnburner of fights to rival the most bitter of conventions, with wounds that will probably take years, not months or weeks, to heal. And whomever the delegates ultimately choose, there is no consensus candidate left. The divisions have grown too deep.


Read more @: Why Republicans are very, very likely to lose the presidency in 2016

If we look back at history and see that almost every time a party is incredibly divided, like the GOP is now, that party looses the presidential election. Are there some exceptions, sure, but very few. But the historical precedent shows us that because of the major division in the GOP they will most likely loose the election in 2016.
 

RabidAlpaca

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Read more @: Why Republicans are very, very likely to lose the presidency in 2016

If we look back at history and see that almost every time a party is incredibly divided, like the GOP is now, that party looses the presidential election. Are there some exceptions, sure, but very few. But the historical precedent shows us that because of the major division in the GOP they will most likely loose the election in 2016. [/FONT][/COLOR]

I agree. Whether it's Trump, Cruz, or some other candidate, there will be a lot of butt hurt and they won't be able to muster enough support for the white house.

The only scenario I see the GOP winning is if Clinton clinches the nomination then the FBI investigation into her emails blows up big and takes her down. If Sanders and Clinton can just avoid shooting themselves in the dick they've got the nomination on lock.
 

What if...?

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Read more @: Why Republicans are very, very likely to lose the presidency in 2016

If we look back at history and see that almost every time a party is incredibly divided, like the GOP is now, that party looses the presidential election. Are there some exceptions, sure, but very few. But the historical precedent shows us that because of the major division in the GOP they will most likely loose the election in 2016. [/FONT][/COLOR]

The dems are facing similar issues.

Just maybe not as bad.
 

faithful_servant

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Read more @: Why Republicans are very, very likely to lose the presidency in 2016

If we look back at history and see that almost every time a party is incredibly divided, like the GOP is now, that party looses the presidential election. Are there some exceptions, sure, but very few. But the historical precedent shows us that because of the major division in the GOP they will most likely loose the election in 2016. [/FONT][/COLOR]

So by that logic, the Dems. will lose this year, since they highly divided as well.... Oops, I used logic... Sorry about that...
 

RabidAlpaca

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So by that logic, the Dems. will lose this year, since they highly divided as well.... Oops, I used logic... Sorry about that...

The dems are really only split two ways, and most are willing to vote for the other team's candidate. The GOP is much, much more divided and the candidates remaining are incredibly polarizing and unlikely to garner a broad support base.

If you think Trumpites will vote GOP if they get screwed out of the nomination, or traditional conservatives will vote Trump, you're out of your mind.
 

iguanaman

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So by that logic, the Dems. will lose this year, since they highly divided as well.... Oops, I used logic... Sorry about that...

The difference is that most Dems will rally around whomever is nominated especially when the alternative on the other side is so foul
 

TheDemSocialist

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So by that logic, the Dems. will lose this year, since they highly divided as well.... Oops, I used logic... Sorry about that...

You think the Democratic Party is as divided as the GOP? Seriously? Sure Democrats are internally divided, but no where near the divisions found in the GOP.
 

faithful_servant

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The difference is that most Dems will rally around whomever is nominated especially when the alternative on the other side is so foul

You think the Democratic Party is as divided as the GOP? Seriously? Sure Democrats are internally divided, but no where near the divisions found in the GOP.

You're both making the same flawed assumption that one "side" won't support the other. This election isn't going to be about who people like the most, but about who they dislike the most. Out of the four front-runners, Cruz is the only one who doesn't bring in a massive "Oh hell no!!" response from their opposition. Yeah, he'll get a few, but no more than most candidates do. The other three on the other hand carry the huge burden of drawing out people who don't normally vote just to vote against them. Hillary is Hillary and there's a huge number of people who dislike her intently enough to get off their ass and vote for the first time in 20 years. Trump is intensely disliked by the left and will draw in the hippies who hate "The Man" and normally won't vote for anyone. Sanders will pull in the folks who only see "Socialist" and little else. All the rest of the theorizing is utter crap because this election is all about who gets hated the least.
 

shagg

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So by that logic, the Dems. will lose this year, since they highly divided as well.... Oops, I used logic... Sorry about that...

The DNC is just trying to get their favorite in. It's pissed a lot of Bernie supporters off, but the fight goes on. Either way, the left will emerge mostly intact.

The RNC is trying deperately to avoid a Trump nomination, because it will either kill the party or set it back for years/decades. And if they succeed, it will be only just barely, and they'll piss off a large chunk of their base in the process. And the candidate in second place is even worse, though he is divisive along more traditional lines.

You're comparing a stiff breeze to a tornado. Both are technically a form of wind, and that's where the similarities end.
 

shagg

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You're both making the same flawed assumption that one "side" won't support the other. This election isn't going to be about who people like the most, but about who they dislike the most. Out of the four front-runners, Cruz is the only one who doesn't bring in a massive "Oh hell no!!" response from their opposition. Yeah, he'll get a few, but no more than most candidates do. The other three on the other hand carry the huge burden of drawing out people who don't normally vote just to vote against them. Hillary is Hillary and there's a huge number of people who dislike her intently enough to get off their ass and vote for the first time in 20 years. Trump is intensely disliked by the left and will draw in the hippies who hate "The Man" and normally won't vote for anyone. Sanders will pull in the folks who only see "Socialist" and little else. All the rest of the theorizing is utter crap because this election is all about who gets hated the least.

Cruz will consolidate the anti-evangelical vote (for lack of a better term) for the Dems. LGBT rights and abortion will drag him down quick.
 

iguanaman

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You're both making the same flawed assumption that one "side" won't support the other. This election isn't going to be about who people like the most, but about who they dislike the most. Out of the four front-runners, Cruz is the only one who doesn't bring in a massive "Oh hell no!!" response from their opposition. Yeah, he'll get a few, but no more than most candidates do. The other three on the other hand carry the huge burden of drawing out people who don't normally vote just to vote against them. Hillary is Hillary and there's a huge number of people who dislike her intently enough to get off their ass and vote for the first time in 20 years. Trump is intensely disliked by the left and will draw in the hippies who hate "The Man" and normally won't vote for anyone. Sanders will pull in the folks who only see "Socialist" and little else. All the rest of the theorizing is utter crap because this election is all about who gets hated the least.

LOL Cruz's unfavorable ratings are over 50% just like Hillary's only his favorable ratings are 10 point less than hers. Cruz does not have a chance against Hillary.
 

Beaudreaux

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Read more @: Why Republicans are very, very likely to lose the presidency in 2016

If we look back at history and see that almost every time a party is incredibly divided, like the GOP is now, that party looses the presidential election. Are there some exceptions, sure, but very few. But the historical precedent shows us that because of the major division in the GOP they will most likely loose the election in 2016. [/FONT][/COLOR]

Although I don't like the source, I do respect you so I read it, and I have to say that even given my dislike of the source, the conclusion of the article is correct. We see proof of it every day here on this site. "If Trump is not allowed to be the nominee..." or "If the GOP steals the nomination from Trump at the convention then..." and so on.

The Dems are divided as well, as I stated in a thread I started about that very subject - mostly on racial and ethnic lines - which hasn't been so demonstrable since pre-1964. Many young Millennial Bernie supporters may not vote for Hillary, and many black Baptists may not vote for Bernie if he is the nominee, but I don't think the numbers will be of such a number like what will happen in the GOP ranks as to make difference.

The only way the GOP can win in November (IMHO) is to nominate Kasich, and for those that supported Trump and Cruz to support Kasich at the polls. If that happens, the GOP takes the White House. If not, as the OP article describes, the GOP will lose and lose badly.
 

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I would agree that the division among Democrats is superficial: Hillary is also a "democratic socialist", only a pragmatic one. The Sanders voters will get over their little rebellion against common sense and arithmetic, and dutifully vote for...either Hillary or Trump.

Because he is really the third Democrat in the race - of the crude populist kind we haven't seen since George Wallace, but certainly no conservative or libertarian, and basically a case of alien infestation in the GOP.

The good news, if you are a normal democratic socialist, is that Cruz is not likely to excite the average voter, while Kasich or Ryan, if picked by the brokered convention, will lack legitimacy in the eyes of too many.

The bad news is that Trump has neither problem - and he will be facing either a very flawed candidate (HC) or an outright caricature. Judging from what I see around Massachusetts (of all places) he can win, he really can.

An emergency national unity coalition, anyone? I will vote for Ron Wyden, for example, if he shares the ticket with Kasich or Ryan...
 
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Frank Apisa

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The Democrats are going to win in November. The best that can happen for the Republicans is to come out of the election with a political party that is not so torn it cannot be put back together.

The self-destruction of that party is almost painful to watch.
 

TheDemSocialist

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You're both making the same flawed assumption that one "side" won't support the other. This election isn't going to be about who people like the most, but about who they dislike the most. Out of the four front-runners, Cruz is the only one who doesn't bring in a massive "Oh hell no!!" response from their opposition. Yeah, he'll get a few, but no more than most candidates do. The other three on the other hand carry the huge burden of drawing out people who don't normally vote just to vote against them. Hillary is Hillary and there's a huge number of people who dislike her intently enough to get off their ass and vote for the first time in 20 years. Trump is intensely disliked by the left and will draw in the hippies who hate "The Man" and normally won't vote for anyone. Sanders will pull in the folks who only see "Socialist" and little else. All the rest of the theorizing is utter crap because this election is all about who gets hated the least.

Im making the assumption based off historical precedence that an internal deep division in a party dont win presidential elections.
 

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Read more @: Why Republicans are very, very likely to lose the presidency in 2016

If we look back at history and see that almost every time a party is incredibly divided, like the GOP is now, that party looses the presidential election. Are there some exceptions, sure, but very few. But the historical precedent shows us that because of the major division in the GOP they will most likely loose the election in 2016. [/FONT][/COLOR]

You didn't see the 1980 Republican primary, did you?
 

OpportunityCost

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I wasnt born. But please explain

There wasn't much unity during the primary. Anderson was vying for the primary nomination and ran independent after losing. Plus there was some talk about Ford as VP that went down the tubes. Several wings of the GOP party were contesting each other in that primary.
 

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Read more @: Why Republicans are very, very likely to lose the presidency in 2016

If we look back at history and see that almost every time a party is incredibly divided, like the GOP is now, that party looses the presidential election. Are there some exceptions, sure, but very few. But the historical precedent shows us that because of the major division in the GOP they will most likely loose the election in 2016. [/FONT][/COLOR]

While I am not going to argue the veracity of the article, I would point out to other democrats that thinking the republican party is weak and the election will be an easy win is a sure way to end up losing that election to those weak republicans.
 

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So by that logic, the Dems. will lose this year, since they highly divided as well.... Oops, I used logic... Sorry about that...

Actually, the dems are no more divided than usual during a primary. Look back 8 years for a good example of another primary where it looked really divisive for the dems, but ultimately was not.
 

Frank Apisa

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While I am not going to argue the veracity of the article, I would point out to other democrats that thinking the republican party is weak and the election will be an easy win is a sure way to end up losing that election to those weak republicans.

GREAT POINT...and one I have to keep in mind more often.

I try NEVER to underestimate an opponent...of any sort.

It would be foolish to underestimate the Republicans during this election.
 

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I think it is delusional to expect Hillary Clinton to win anything. She has never won an election that was seriously contested. She polls with an unfavorable rating that is 15-20% higher than the favorable. She can't even convincingly beat a crazy old man yelling "Free Money" at the top of his lungs. In many ways, he looks more sensible than her. If she's not indicted before election day, the chances of her winning are near zero. She would have to get a lot of help to win....A LOT OF HELP!
 

Thrilla

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Read more @: Why Republicans are very, very likely to lose the presidency in 2016

If we look back at history and see that almost every time a party is incredibly divided, like the GOP is now, that party looses the presidential election. Are there some exceptions, sure, but very few. But the historical precedent shows us that because of the major division in the GOP they will most likely loose the election in 2016. [/FONT][/COLOR]

Republicans will lose, but not becasue of this stuff.

they will lose because the Democratic party loyal strongholds give Democrats an electoral college advantage.

pretty much, Democrats are starting the election with 242 electoral college votes... Republicans are starting with 170.

Republican would have to put up a spectacular candidate with very wide appeal in order to even put up a fight( there's no one like that anywhere in sight).... Democrats, on the other hand, can literally put up anyone with a D after their name ( even a socialist with an I after his name) and still have a big advantage.
 

Thrilla

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Actually, the dems are no more divided than usual during a primary. Look back 8 years for a good example of another primary where it looked really divisive for the dems, but ultimately was not.

i dunno, this is the first Dem primary that's been a competition between competing ideologies.... every other Dem primary has been between centrist/liberal capitalists.... this one ads in a socialist.

Id say when you have a capitalist running against a socialist, and both are garnering support... you've got yourself a pretty big division.
 
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