Why is this virus so wildly different than any others?

[Erod]

Let's take a deep breath and look at the situation as it currently stands.


So far we've had:

Almost 1,100 cases in the US

41 deaths (almost all of them in the same location, and all elderly compromised people so far)


Now, let'd compare this to H1N1 in 2009-10:

60.8 million cases in the US

22,469 deaths


Why is this virus so different than any of the multitudes of viruses before it?

 

[Slartibartfast]

Let's take a deep breath and look at the situation as it currently stands.


So far we've had:

Almost 1,100 cases in the US

41 deaths (almost all of them in the same location)


Now, let'd compare this to H1N1 in 2009-10:

60.8 million cases in the US

22,469 deaths


Why is this virus so different than any of the multitudes of viruses before it?

By your numbers, 41/1100 = 3.7% mortality rate || 22469/60800000 = 3.69e[SUP]-4[/SUP] mortality rate.

 

[Excast]

And if you actually believe there are less than 2,000 cases in America, you have far too much faith in the leaders who have failed us on this one. People all around the country are ill and unable to get tested because this wasn't taken seriously when it should have been. Now we are weeks, if not months, behind countries like South Korea that took real steps early.

 

[Lutherf]

Let's take a deep breath and look at the situation as it currently stands.


So far we've had:

Almost 1,100 cases in the US

41 deaths (almost all of them in the same location, and all elderly compromised people so far)


Now, let'd compare this to H1N1 in 2009-10:

60.8 million cases in the US

22,469 deaths


Why is this virus so different than any of the multitudes of viruses before it?

Because people are exploding on the street and the Trump administration is covering it up!

 

[Kreton]

To all those wondering what the differences are, or what the threat is here are a few points

Mortality rate can be very high.
This virus is causing very high amounts of hospitalizations
Higher mortality rate can be reduced if those who get sick receive the treatment they need
The only way to ensure that treatment can be received by all is by taking steps to ensure our health care system is not over burdened
The way that the health care system does not get overburdened is by slowing the spread of the disease
Slowing the spread also allows time for the scientific community to develop ways to test and fight this virus
Taking the recommended steps to slow the spread is absolutely the duty of every American

Republicans want to downplay this virus to protect Trump. Democrats want to use it to destroy him. Science wants to stop it. Medical professionals want to save lives. Stop worrying about November. Think about who in those 4 groups has the right motives. We can deal with the election in November. Trump, congress, the public, everyone needs to focus on how to support our scientific and medical professionals during this time and stop focusing on how to benefit politically and/or financially.

To the OP and others on the right who think that pretending this virus is a joke and don't want to take it seriously because you are worried that acknowledging it will hurt Trump, look at what is happening. Your actions are hurting Trump. The best possible thing for Trump right now is for the slowing down of this virus to be successful. The more is spreads the more it will hurt him. Embrace fighting and slowing this virus. There is literally no downside even for your political obsessions.

 

[Erod]

To all those wondering what the differences are, or what the threat is here are a few points

Mortality rate can be very high.
This virus is causing very high amounts of hospitalizations
Higher mortality rate can be reduced if those who get sick receive the treatment they need
The only way to ensure that treatment can be received by all is by taking steps to ensure our health care system is not over burdened
The way that the health care system does not get overburdened is by slowing the spread of the disease
Slowing the spread also allows time for the scientific community to develop ways to test and fight this virus
Taking the recommended steps to slow the spread is absolutely the duty of every American

Republicans want to downplay this virus to protect Trump. Democrats want to use it to destroy him. Science wants to stop it. Medical professionals want to save lives. Stop worrying about November. Think about who in those 4 groups has the right motives. We can deal with the election in November. Trump, congress, the public, everyone needs to focus on how to support our scientific and medical professionals during this time and stop focusing on how to benefit politically and/or financially.

To the OP and others on the right who think that pretending this virus is a joke and don't want to take it seriously because you are worried that acknowledging it will hurt Trump, look at what is happening. Your actions are hurting Trump. The best possible thing for Trump right now is for the slowing down of this virus to be successful. The more is spreads the more it will hurt him. Embrace fighting and slowing this virus. There is literally no downside even for your political obsessions.

Stop with that. I'm not pretending it's a "joke." I'm just asking the question as to why this is being treated so differently than major outbreaks before.

It's looks horrible for the elderly, and like most everyone, I have compromised elderly people in my family. Most notably, my own father, and I'm scared to death for him. He has pulmonary fibrosis.

But he'd fair no better if he got H1N1 or the flu.

I'm asking the question of why this is being approached so differently. That's all. H1N1 didn't get near this attention in 2010. Is that why?

 

[Kreton]

Stop with that. I'm not pretending it's a "joke." I'm just asking the question as to why this is being treated so differently than major outbreaks before.

It's looks horrible for the elderly, and like most everyone, I have compromised elderly people in my family. Most notably, my own father, and I'm scared to death for him. He has pulmonary fibrosis.

But he'd fair no better if he got H1N1 or the flu.

I'm asking the question of why this is being approached so differently. That's all. H1N1 didn't get near this attention in 2010. Is that why?

I'm not going to stop with that. You people touting that this virus is no big deal, and down playing severity are making it worse. Try to play super innocent if you want but I've seen your posts the last few weeks.

Since you brought up your father, let's say worst case scenario he does get infected. Do you want him to have a bed? Do you want a doctor to have to choose between him and a 35 year old mother as to who gets a bed if there is one available? As I spoke about about in my original post, the way to ensure he has options if he does get sick is to slow the spread. If you pay close enough attention and ignore the political partisan bull**** out there, all that most people, especially those in the medical and scientific fields are asking people to do is be prepared in case they are quarantined, wash their hands often, avoid touching the face, avoid large crowds ect.

His survival odds with H1N1 are better than COVID-19. And far better than if he simply got the flu.

Lastly as you don't seem to understand the biggest difference is the mortality rate. I've explained it to you. Conservative estimates put it at 1% - more extreme are up near 3 and 4%. H1N1 and flu were nowhere close. Additionally people are reacting differently due to Trump. People do not trust him. His initial responses were to publicly declare it wasn't a big problem and it would go away. When you scientists and health officials saying one thing, and Trump saying another it doesn't project confidence. That coupled with the reality that Trump doesn't admit when he is wrong even when faced with overwhelming evidence. Most rational people, even people who like the direction that the country has taken would agree that Trump is hard headed and egotistical and when you don't trust a man to admit when he is wrong it is incredibly hard to have faith he will change his tune when things get bad. The vast majority of people don't trust Trump on this. Especially not Trump more than medical specialists. When people trust the government to handle this crisis, or start to trust like we are seeing today with the announcements about testing, you start to see things turn around, like we saw with the stock market shortly after that information came out. During H1N1 more people trusted how that was handled.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Let's take a deep breath and look at the situation as it currently stands.
So far we've had:
Almost 1,100 cases in the US
41 deaths (almost all of them in the same location, and all elderly compromised people so far)
Now, let'd compare this to H1N1 in 2009-10:
60.8 million cases in the US
22,469 deaths
Why is this virus so different than any of the multitudes of viruses before it?

Viruses spread exponentially.
So, it's not that there are 100 more cases each day.
It's that there are X times as many cases as there were yesterday — the story of the rice and the chessboard is one example of exponential growth

So, it'd be better to compare the number this virus generates after it has been with the world as long as w/e other virus totals you want to look at for comparison.
That's why it's so super stupid to compare the total deaths so far from covid-19 to the deaths from the flu.
The two are not yet on even footing.
Just wait though, they will be.

To get a good picture from the information you are trying to use, you will need to wait till covid-19 has saturated the US as well as H1N1 did.


Maybe covid-19 has a higher rate of hospitalizations?
What was the hospitalization rate for H1N1 when it was here?
Cause that's a big deal.
There're concerns that the healthcare system'll be overrun if too many people get sick in rapid succession.


Is H1N1 a flu?
Our population has been building immunities to flus for centuries now.

Humans lack pre-existing immunity to covid-19

 

[PoS]

Let's take a deep breath and look at the situation as it currently stands.


So far we've had:

Almost 1,100 cases in the US

41 deaths (almost all of them in the same location, and all elderly compromised people so far)


Now, let'd compare this to H1N1 in 2009-10:

60.8 million cases in the US

22,469 deaths


Why is this virus so different than any of the multitudes of viruses before it?

The big difference is the MSM- they are reporting this 24/7 and using maximum hyperbole to sow fear and panic.

 

[Crosscheck]

I'm not going to stop with that. You people touting that this virus is no big deal, and down playing severity are making it worse. Try to play super innocent if you want but I've seen your posts the last few weeks.

Since you brought up your father, let's say worst case scenario he does get infected. Do you want him to have a bed? Do you want a doctor to have to choose between him and a 35 year old mother as to who gets a bed if there is one available? As I spoke about about in my original post, the way to ensure he has options if he does get sick is to slow the spread. If you pay close enough attention and ignore the political partisan bull**** out there, all that most people, especially those in the medical and scientific fields are asking people to do is be prepared in case they are quarantined, wash their hands often, avoid touching the face, avoid large crowds ect.

His survival odds with H1N1 are better than COVID-19. And far better than if he simply got the flu.

Lastly as you don't seem to understand the biggest difference is the mortality rate. I've explained it to you. Conservative estimates put it at 1% - more extreme are up near 3 and 4%. H1N1 and flu were nowhere close. Additionally people are reacting differently due to Trump. People do not trust him. His initial responses were to publicly declare it wasn't a big problem and it would go away. When you scientists and health officials saying one thing, and Trump saying another it doesn't project confidence. That coupled with the reality that Trump doesn't admit when he is wrong even when faced with overwhelming evidence. Most rational people, even people who like the direction that the country has taken would agree that Trump is hard headed and egotistical and when you don't trust a man to admit when he is wrong it is incredibly hard to have faith he will change his tune when things get bad. The vast majority of people don't trust Trump on this. Especially not Trump more than medical specialists. When people trust the government to handle this crisis, or start to trust like we are seeing today with the announcements about testing, you start to see things turn around, like we saw with the stock market shortly after that information came out. During H1N1 more people trusted how that was handled.

Not everyone has the capacity to understand health risks.

I had a patient once came in 3 weeks post defibrillator implant due to a suture had popped out of the skin with a surrounding red blister secreting serosanguineous fluid. I had sterile gloves , sterile gauze, and sterile forceps examining the site. The worry is if it an infection it can travel down to the defibrillator and down the leads right into his heart. As I step back he looks down at his chest and places a finger in his mouth and then touches the suture to get a better look at it smearing his saliva on it. Really?

 

[Visbek]

Why is this virus so different than any of the multitudes of viruses before it?

Because:

It spreads as fast as the seasonal flu (R0 = ~3).

The mortality rate is probably 10-40 times greater than the seasonal flu (anywhere from 1% to 4%).

The flu can hit 40 million Americans in a season. If 40 million people develop COVID-19, and the mortality rate is 1%, that's 400,000 deaths.


Furthermore...

You can be contagious for days before showing symptoms; you could spread it for a week and might never realize you contracted COVID-19. In comparison, SARS has a higher mortality rate; but it's easier to stop, because it makes you sick several days before you become contagious.

We do not yet have any vaccines or proven treatments.

In addition to the mortality rate, about 15% to 20% of patients will need to be hospitalized. This can overwhelm hospitals and other medical resources, thus you end up like Italy -- an advanced nation with a good healthcare system and highly educated doctors, who are so swamped with patients that they can't help everyone, and have to set up a triage instead. (This increases the mortality rate in those areas.)

The seasonal flu tends to die down as the weather warms up. COVID-19 might not be stopped by warmer weather. It could also turn into a seasonal illness.

Is that enough reasons for you to take this seriously?

 

[Erod]

Because:

It spreads as fast as the seasonal flu (R0 = ~3).

The mortality rate is probably 10-40 times greater than the seasonal flu (anywhere from 1% to 4%).

The flu can hit 40 million Americans in a season. If 40 million people develop COVID-19, and the mortality rate is 1%, that's 400,000 deaths.


Furthermore...

You can be contagious for days before showing symptoms; you could spread it for a week and might never realize you contracted COVID-19. In comparison, SARS has a higher mortality rate; but it's easier to stop, because it makes you sick several days before you become contagious.

We do not yet have any vaccines or proven treatments.

In addition to the mortality rate, about 15% to 20% of patients will need to be hospitalized. This can overwhelm hospitals and other medical resources, thus you end up like Italy -- an advanced nation with a good healthcare system and highly educated doctors, who are so swamped with patients that they can't help everyone, and have to set up a triage instead. (This increases the mortality rate in those areas.)

The seasonal flu tends to die down as the weather warms up. COVID-19 might not be stopped by warmer weather. It could also turn into a seasonal illness.

Is that enough reasons for you to take this seriously?

OK, I understand all that.

However, regarding the first point and this higher mortality rate. So far, we have 42 deaths in the US, and most all of them live in the same nursing home. For reasonably healthy people, the death rate appears to be far less than 2 percent.

The hospitalization potential is indeed worrisome, especially with the sheer panic being encouraged by media. (Ratings haven't been this good since 9-11, and there's an election around the corner.) I also sense a particular worry for markets like NYC, Chicago, and LA, where people live elbow-to-elbow. Big markets get big consideration.

For typical healthy people, this seems to be no bigger deal than H1N1, and we barely batted an eye when 61 million Americans contracted that virus.

It's as if they're not telling us something.

 

[apdst]

It's different because the Leftists and the media are manufacturing a global freak-the-****-out.

I expect the Democrats to pass an anti-gun bill soon. Never let a crisis go to waste, baby!

 

[Erod]

I'm not going to stop with that. You people touting that this virus is no big deal, and down playing severity are making it worse. Try to play super innocent if you want but I've seen your posts the last few weeks.

Since you brought up your father, let's say worst case scenario he does get infected. Do you want him to have a bed? Do you want a doctor to have to choose between him and a 35 year old mother as to who gets a bed if there is one available? As I spoke about about in my original post, the way to ensure he has options if he does get sick is to slow the spread. If you pay close enough attention and ignore the political partisan bull**** out there, all that most people, especially those in the medical and scientific fields are asking people to do is be prepared in case they are quarantined, wash their hands often, avoid touching the face, avoid large crowds ect.

His survival odds with H1N1 are better than COVID-19. And far better than if he simply got the flu.

Lastly as you don't seem to understand the biggest difference is the mortality rate. I've explained it to you. Conservative estimates put it at 1% - more extreme are up near 3 and 4%. H1N1 and flu were nowhere close. Additionally people are reacting differently due to Trump. People do not trust him. His initial responses were to publicly declare it wasn't a big problem and it would go away. When you scientists and health officials saying one thing, and Trump saying another it doesn't project confidence. That coupled with the reality that Trump doesn't admit when he is wrong even when faced with overwhelming evidence. Most rational people, even people who like the direction that the country has taken would agree that Trump is hard headed and egotistical and when you don't trust a man to admit when he is wrong it is incredibly hard to have faith he will change his tune when things get bad. The vast majority of people don't trust Trump on this. Especially not Trump more than medical specialists. When people trust the government to handle this crisis, or start to trust like we are seeing today with the announcements about testing, you start to see things turn around, like we saw with the stock market shortly after that information came out. During H1N1 more people trusted how that was handled.

More people trusted how H1N1 was handled? 61 million Americans got it. It's laughable to blame this on Trump. That's just silly, and folks see through that easily. This is an election year.

Every year, 650,000 people die of the flu. Like clockwork. And we just carry on. This seems exaggerrated in scale.

The run on hospitals is a real concern. A BIG concern. All you have to do is try to buy toilet paper to understand that.

Panic is off the charts. The media is feeding it, virtually rooting for the virus itself to wreak havoc.

It's as if they all know something they're not telling us because they don't think we can handle it. They're probably right.

 

[Visbek]

However, regarding the first point and this higher mortality rate. So far, we have 42 deaths in the US, and most all of them live in the same nursing home. For reasonably healthy people, the death rate appears to be far less than 2 percent.

There are 1800 confirmed cases and 42 fatalities; that's 2%.

The US lacks testing, so there are likely more cases -- but also more fatalities. Remember, without tests, we can't always confirm the cause of death.

The mortality rate can also vary greatly based on circumstances.

For typical healthy people, this seems to be no bigger deal than H1N1, and we barely batted an eye when 61 million Americans contracted that virus.

H1N1 in the US had a mortality rate of 0.02% (12,000 people) and a hospitalization rate of 0.4% (265k).

If COVID-19 is spread to that many people, even a 0.5% mortality rate means 295,000 deaths.

Plus, statements like that make it sound, well, like you don't care much about vulnerable people. That includes anyone with a suppressed immune system, or older people. Do you not know anyone over the age of 70? Do you not care about anyone who recently had chemotherapy? Do you not know anyone with diabetes? Are people who are vulnerable, through no fault of their own by the way, somehow worth less?

It's as if they're not telling us something.

If "they" refers to medical professionals, they are telling you everything they know.

If "they" refers to Trump, he spent weeks telling you lies and wrong information. Fortunately, the administration has now declared a state of emergency; Trump is talking about distributing $50 billion to the states to fight COVID-19. It's not a perfect response, but it is definitely a step in the right direction, and far better than the travel ban.

We can only hope that after weeks of gaslighting, everyone is now at least on board with taking this seriously.

 

[Threegoofs]

OK, I understand all that.

However, regarding the first point and this higher mortality rate. So far, we have 42 deaths in the US, and most all of them live in the same nursing home. For reasonably healthy people, the death rate appears to be far less than 2 percent.

The hospitalization potential is indeed worrisome, especially with the sheer panic being encouraged by media. (Ratings haven't been this good since 9-11, and there's an election around the corner.) I also sense a particular worry for markets like NYC, Chicago, and LA, where people live elbow-to-elbow. Big markets get big consideration.

For typical healthy people, this seems to be no bigger deal than H1N1, and we barely batted an eye when 61 million Americans contracted that virus.

It's as if they're not telling us something.

There’s no question there is way more disease than we know of.

All week I’ve been hearing from physicians with stories of patients with viral pneumonia over the last couple weeks who were never tested because they didn’t travel from China, including a woman who traveled last week from Italy and was hospitalized with an unknown flu virus that was most likely COVID, but the CDC rules said you could only test if they were from China.

When the millions of test kits finally become available, you’re going to see exponential growth.

 

[Bullseye]

Let's take a deep breath and look at the situation as it currently stands.


So far we've had:

Almost 1,100 cases in the US

41 deaths (almost all of them in the same location, and all elderly compromised people so far)


Now, let'd compare this to H1N1 in 2009-10:

60.8 million cases in the US

22,469 deaths


Why is this virus so different than any of the multitudes of viruses before it?

A Republican is President. QED.

 

[Kreton]

More people trusted how H1N1 was handled? 61 million Americans got it. It's laughable to blame this on Trump. That's just silly, and folks see through that easily. This is an election year.

Every year, 650,000 people die of the flu. Like clockwork. And we just carry on. This seems exaggerrated in scale.

The run on hospitals is a real concern. A BIG concern. All you have to do is try to buy toilet paper to understand that.

Panic is off the charts. The media is feeding it, virtually rooting for the virus itself to wreak havoc.

It's as if they all know something they're not telling us because they don't think we can handle it. They're probably right.

Your right, people are sick and dying. The real victim here is Trump. This virus is all about the election. The chinese, the democrats, Hillary and Obama, the media, hospitals,the CDC, and whatever other boogeymen haunt your dreams are faking this all in an effort to undermine Trump. Because it is all about him.

Nobody with any intelligence what so ever believes that the media is rooting for havoc. The media is constantly telling people and encouraging people to prevent this. Your obsession with making everything about Trump and your blatant lying is pathetic. It really is. As I said in other posts, you and people like you are the reason the containment efforts are going to fail. You are the reason Trump is getting so much crap. When Biden wins and Trump gets creamed over the handling of this, it is your words that people are seeing and associating with Trump. I sincerely hope you and your family make it through this crisis ok despite your efforts to encourage people to just carry on which WILL overrun our hospitals, which will spread more disease. You are the bigger problem.

 

[noonereal]

Because people are exploding on the street and the Trump administration is covering it up!

Yes, I saw one explode today!

 

[Mr Person]

Thread: Why is this virus so wildly different than any others?

If you absorbed actual information rather than blindly following marching orders to call it a hoax, you'd know.

 

[Taylor]

By your numbers, 41/1100 = 3.7% mortality rate || 22469/60800000 = 3.69e[SUP]-4[/SUP] mortality rate.

Small sample bias.

 

[Threegoofs]

More people trusted how H1N1 was handled? 61 million Americans got it. It's laughable to blame this on Trump. That's just silly, and folks see through that easily. This is an election year.

Every year, 650,000 people die of the flu. Like clockwork. And we just carry on. This seems exaggerrated in scale.

The run on hospitals is a real concern. A BIG concern. All you have to do is try to buy toilet paper to understand that.

Panic is off the charts. The media is feeding it, virtually rooting for the virus itself to wreak havoc.

It's as if they all know something they're not telling us because they don't think we can handle it. They're probably right.

?? 650K people do NOT die of the flu each year.

In the US, flu deaths are around 10,000-60,000 per year depending on the season.

But this is a virus no one has ever been exposed to.

No immunity (although it’s postulated that children may have partial immunity because of the sheer volume of coronavirus infections they get due to colds).

This will certainly hit flu level deaths, and probably compress those deaths into a couple months vs an entire flu season.

The mortality of this looks like it’s running higher than regular flu, but it’s hard to say how much. The US is at an advantage over other countries because our population smokes MUCH less and air pollution is minimal, leaving people with healthier lungs.

But, it’s expected that this will affect a substantial proportion of the population.

How bad might it get? The former director of the CDC , Tom Freiden, just published some numbers with guesses. I think 0.5% mortality is probably on the high side, but 50% exposure is pretty likely.

Any way you look at it, it’s a lot of deaths. And the faster it hits, the higher the fatality rate.

There’s your 650K deaths right there.