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Why is the possibility of a hot war between China and the United States very high?

All throughout history, when two powers bump heads like America and China are bumping heads at the moment, it leads to war.


If it doesn't lead to war, we're in a new era.


We might have nukes to thank for the peace.

You bring to mind the historical Thucydides Trap as it's recently come to be called according to which a rising power challenges an established power and that leads to war, at least in the majority of instances cited in history by proponents. Thucydides was the first to make this observation in the Peloponnesian War when a rising Athens was seen as a challenge by the dominant Sparta, war ensued and Sparta prevailed.


The Thcydides Trap

The term describes the theory that when a great power's position as hegemon is threatened by an emerging power, there is a significant likelihood of war between the two powers.[1][2] Or in coiner Graham Allison's words:

Thucydides's Trap refers to the natural, inevitable discombobulation that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power...[and] when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, the resulting structural stress makes a violent clash the rule, not the exception.[8]

To advance his thesis, Allison led a case study by the Harvard University Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs which found that among 16 historical instances of an emerging power rivaling a ruling power, 12 ended in war.[3][9]


While until now it's been said a war between USA and China would be an accident, ie, unintentionally as supposedly involved Germany challenging Britain and WW I, it's being said presently a war between USA and China would not be an accident. In other words of course, it would be a conscious choice and decision, mutually.

Not.

Chinese abhor war. The historic reason is that the Chinese are terrible at war. The present reason is that the entire Chinese economy depends on global trade, without which and with a war would collapse the China economy and war effort quickly and decisively. Xi Jinping is working feverishly to try to squeeze Taiwan into a political capitulation because he knows an invasion attack against Taiwan would be a disaster for the PLA that would moreover be catastrophic to the CCP.

Under Trump USN has set new records for Freedom of Navigation Ops in the South China Sea, doing three in one month for the first time in April, as just one measurement. Trump is driving the CCP Boyz in Beijing to drink so to speak because there is absolutely nothing they can do to counter the FONOPS or to stop 'em and that any kind of active military engagement or conflict is a guaranteed loser to 'em.

So no, no war, no military engagement by China against the USA because a military conflict is the number one don't in Beijing and it is way ahead of rule #2, which is that if war looks inevitable see rule number one. The only possible but not guaranteed way for China to prevail is without firing a shot because if shots are fired the Chinese get plugged full of holes every time. All the same however, Trump with the so called trade war has knocked China's dubious rise back ten years already and without the US firing a shot.
 
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I don't know about India, but I know China. I lived there for 56 years.
Chinese characters give Chinese people a very strong learning ability. Even if a new word has never been touched before, its meaning can be understood almost literally. Therefore, the vocabulary of Chinese people should be significantly larger than that of alphabetic languages. This is an important reason for the Chinese people's strong learning ability. The other is that Chinese people are very skillful, which may be related to the use of chopsticks. So even many young people living in the countryside can quickly become skilled workers.

That's a lot of damage I'm afraid to say.

That means many things but the core of the problem is that the Chinese have consciously, deliberately and systematically chosen to be closed to the barbarian devils, ie, the world outside of China, for 5000 years. In short, they've missed a lot that's massively cumulative and by volume alone is impossible to surmount on their own.

Qualitatively, the Chinese are massively ignorant of the world outside of China. And now with CCP mind control it continues to get worse. Inside of China however everyone and everything Chinese is sheer genius. The sole and absolute reason is of course that it's Chinese and it has existed from 5000 years, if not a million years. That's it. No why because it's a given.
 
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That's a lot of damage I'm afraid to say.

That means many things but the core of the problem is that the Chinese have consciously, deliberately and systematically chosen to be closed to the barbarian devils, ie, the world outside of China, for 5000 years. In short, they've missed a lot that's massively cumulative and by volume alone is impossible to surmount on their own.

Qualitatively, the Chinese are massively ignorant of the world outside of China. And now with CCP mind control it continues to get worse. Inside of China however everyone and everything Chinese is sheer genius. The sole and absolute reason is of course that it's Chinese and it has existed from 5000 years, if not a million years. That's it. No why because it's a given.
Indeed, China has been isolated from the world for too long. However, the situation is changing rapidly. Obviously, China is understanding the world and integrating into the world. China will become a democratic country and follow the path prescribed by God. This is the common destination of mankind.
 
This concept is ignorant on many fronts. The last thing China wants is a war with the US. First, The US is their biggest trading partner. That economy they are trying to build would go negative immediately. Second, Because the US is part of NATO and SEATO, that would mean going to war against about 35 nations. The US is more powerful militarily than China by itself but with NATO and SEATO applying military and economic leverage, China would be toast in a hurry. A mutual defense treaty between the US and Japan would draw them into it as well. Third, China is only capable of producing 25% of it's food needs. With imports cut off, starvation would soon follow. Fourth, China has very few energy resources. No prolonged war can be carried on without energy resources. Fifth, because China lacks the capability of being able to attack the US, the war would be fought in China. That would result in the destruction of China's cities, and industries.

There is zero chance of war between the US and China.
 
This concept is ignorant on many fronts. The last thing China wants is a war with the US. First, The US is their biggest trading partner. That economy they are trying to build would go negative immediately. Second, Because the US is part of NATO and SEATO, that would mean going to war against about 35 nations. The US is more powerful militarily than China by itself but with NATO and SEATO applying military and economic leverage, China would be toast in a hurry. A mutual defense treaty between the US and Japan would draw them into it as well. Third, China is only capable of producing 25% of it's food needs. With imports cut off, starvation would soon follow. Fourth, China has very few energy resources. No prolonged war can be carried on without energy resources. Fifth, because China lacks the capability of being able to attack the US, the war would be fought in China. That would result in the destruction of China's cities, and industries.

There is zero chance of war between the US and China.

Because of the so called trade war China is looking at less food available to the general population (while Party cadre aren't about to starve).

Xi Jinpingpong just started his "Clean Plate" campaign to eat whatever is put in front of you in the common pot for everyone and no more. Leave nothing on your plate so take only what you need out of the common pot or plate. Four people at a restaurant get food for three and have to make do; restaurants now provide a doggie bag for the people of the People's Republic. Indeed and classically, your dog eats better than you do now. Starting a couple of weeks ago the small restaurant I'd often stop at on the way from work to get a couple of orders of boiled rice didn't have any more rice -- you have to get there early on now or lose out. Pork is the main meat in China yet half the pig population got killed off by disease so now the price of pork is almost as much as gold is.

There's a lot less food available in China now than, well, since Mao's famines. The trade war has set China back considerably while the hole only gets wider and deeper in many respects beyond food.

As to Taiwan and because of Xi's bellicose rhetoric and belligerence Taipei unveiled a ground to ground missile of medium range it was publicly unknown Taiwan had and said they have enough of to level a mass of south coastal China and inland, where several hundred million people live to include military bases. Party censors have kept this revelation by Taiwan from the population who have no clue they'd find themselves killed if Beijing tried anything against Taiwan. All the people get of the People's Republic is Xi rah rah rah Taiwan is ours and we're gonna take it boom boom. The people of the People's Republic will take it where it hurts is where they'll take it.
 
You must be kidding. Europe. Have you seen Europe lately. It is a basket case. Very similar to your country.

if Europe is a basket case then what does that make Australia lol
 
Europe and China are totally different. Europe is made up of democracies and China is a dictatorship. Europe is likely to cooperate with the United States in many areas, such as chip and high-end machine tool trade

you are having a laugh all Trump has done is cause a chasm to open between the EU and America and Biden won't improve things ..... Europe if anything is looking further east like Russia towards China ... America is totally unreliable in every aspect

If the United States regards Christian spirit as the foundation of its nation, it must be the kingdom of God. If the Christian faith in the United States is seriously eroded, the American democratic system is in danger of being subverted.
There are deficiencies in the constitution of the United States. The United States should clearly establish Christianity as the national religion. Christianity is regarded as a religion advocated by the state and clearly reflected in school education. So I'm worried about the future of American democracy.

drugs are bad for you ... Americans don't know the true meaning of Christianity or Honour/Honor they have none .... if they did they would honour the treaties they signed a good comparison is nazi Germany
 
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You must be kidding. Europe. Have you seen Europe lately. It is a basket case. Very similar to your country.

In what way is Europe a basket case?
 
This concept is ignorant on many fronts. The last thing China wants is a war with the US. First, The US is their biggest trading partner. That economy they are trying to build would go negative immediately. Second, Because the US is part of NATO and SEATO, that would mean going to war against about 35 nations. The US is more powerful militarily than China by itself but with NATO and SEATO applying military and economic leverage, China would be toast in a hurry. A mutual defense treaty between the US and Japan would draw them into it as well. Third, China is only capable of producing 25% of it's food needs. With imports cut off, starvation would soon follow. Fourth, China has very few energy resources. No prolonged war can be carried on without energy resources. Fifth, because China lacks the capability of being able to attack the US, the war would be fought in China. That would result in the destruction of China's cities, and industries.

There is zero chance of war between the US and China.
It is true that the Chinese Communist Party should not have a war with the United States, but dictators are often very stupid. He may take risks and start the war.
 
Because of the so called trade war China is looking at less food available to the general population (while Party cadre aren't about to starve).

Xi Jinpingpong just started his "Clean Plate" campaign to eat whatever is put in front of you in the common pot for everyone and no more. Leave nothing on your plate so take only what you need out of the common pot or plate. Four people at a restaurant get food for three and have to make do; restaurants now provide a doggie bag for the people of the People's Republic. Indeed and classically, your dog eats better than you do now. Starting a couple of weeks ago the small restaurant I'd often stop at on the way from work to get a couple of orders of boiled rice didn't have any more rice -- you have to get there early on now or lose out. Pork is the main meat in China yet half the pig population got killed off by disease so now the price of pork is almost as much as gold is.

There's a lot less food available in China now than, well, since Mao's famines. The trade war has set China back considerably while the hole only gets wider and deeper in many respects beyond food.

As to Taiwan and because of Xi's bellicose rhetoric and belligerence Taipei unveiled a ground to ground missile of medium range it was publicly unknown Taiwan had and said they have enough of to level a mass of south coastal China and inland, where several hundred million people live to include military bases. Party censors have kept this revelation by Taiwan from the population who have no clue they'd find themselves killed if Beijing tried anything against Taiwan. All the people get of the People's Republic is Xi rah rah rah Taiwan is ours and we're gonna take it boom boom. The people of the People's Republic will take it where it hurts is where they'll take it.
You know Taiwan very well. Youl like a Chinese.
 
It is true that the Chinese Communist Party should not have a war with the United States, but dictators are often very stupid. He may take risks and start the war.

The point is well taken yet Xi's own security people would stop him before he could get started. It wouldn't be the first time Xi would disappear either, would it.

Recall 2012 when Xi was taking over and all he had left to do was to move into the chairman's office at Zhongnanhai being vacated by Hu Jin Tao. Xi instead disappeared suddenly for two weeks. Nowhere to be seen or heard from. Meanwhile the 91 year old former Pres. and lifelong ogre Jiang Zemin was raising his hands with his palms upturned alongside his shrugged shoulders and bleating, "Moi???"

Of all the rumors and fragmented reports -- from a mild heart attack or cancer surgery to hit with a chair at a Party brawl between factions -- I firmly believe Xi had to settle the Bo Xi Lai business lest Jiang derail his ascention or, short of that, make a mockery of it. A report of an assassination attempt is not credible as that is not the CCP style by which the Party prefers to disappear you instead. If Xi got disappeared until Bo and his murderer wife got off it seemed to work as the wife got a life suspended sentence for the poisoning murder of a British businessman and Bo got life in a mansion. Their son got forgiven too from smashing up his Ferrari in Harvard Square and for owning a car that cost 30 times Bo's mayor's salary...and then there was the Harvard tuition to account for.

Xi reminds me a lot of Trump except Xi says virtually nothing in public and owns all media in China, although Trump finds the former impossible and the latter on his to do list. Xi's under serious public criticism lately to include for his bellicosity toward Taiwan, to the point several intellectuals published articles calling for him to quit, Wu Qiang called for a meeting of the Central Committee to "discuss" Xi, the former Party School director Cai Xia had to flee to the USA after calling Xi a "clown" who is taking the country to ruin to include a possible war by stupidity.
 
I don't think the US public would accept the kind of casualty figures a war with China would involve.
I think the loss of a carrier which is a distinct possibility would create calls for an end to hostilities.

This isn't the 1940's any more.
 
Whatever the possibility of an armed conflict between China and the United States, the likelihood is certainly greater with Donald Trump in the White House. Who knows what that crazy bastard will do to win an election? Or delay the election, for that matter.

Such a confrontation would be devastating for both countries.

Without question Donald Trump is incapable of leading the US as a war president. The Pentagon, Congress, and the Senate are certainly aware of that. How and how soon the other two branches of government would step-in to counter Trump's aggression is the big question.

No doubt China, as with most other nations, sees a United States weakened by the chaos and disarray of in Washington. I would hope that China would prefer to work diplomatically through a more stable American government and will wait to see what happens in November.

There again, however, the United States is no longer THE world leader. There is a vacuum. It may be too inviting to ignore. China very much wants full control of the South China Sea.

We cannot deny that the situation is dangerous.
 
Whatever the possibility of an armed conflict between China and the United States, the likelihood is certainly greater with Donald Trump in the White House. Who knows what that crazy bastard will do to win an election? Or delay the election, for that matter.

Such a confrontation would be devastating for both countries.

Without question Donald Trump is incapable of leading the US as a war president. The Pentagon, Congress, and the Senate are certainly aware of that. How and how soon the other two branches of government would step-in to counter Trump's aggression is the big question.

No doubt China, as with most other nations, sees a United States weakened by the chaos and disarray of in Washington. I would hope that China would prefer to work diplomatically through a more stable American government and will wait to see what happens in November.

There again, however, the United States is no longer THE world leader. There is a vacuum. It may be too inviting to ignore. China very much wants full control of the South China Sea.

We cannot deny that the situation is dangerous.

I don’t see much the US can do as far as the SCS. Between the distance and the state of the Navy.
 
I don’t see much the US can do as far as the SCS. Between the distance and the state of the Navy.

We've cuddled up a bit with Vietnam which now permits docking of US Navy ships in Cam Ranh and maybe Da Nang. I'm not sure what else we have done or could do as you say.
 
The Philippines has returned to the side of the USA against CCP Boyz in Beijing in the South China Sea disputes and in the East Asia-Western Pacific strategic region.

Pres. Duterte has reversed his decision to abrogate the US Visiting Forces Agreement signed during the Obama Administration and which Duterte negated immediately upon becoming president in 2016. Duterte said his abrogation of the US VFA is no longer in force. Duterte had also spoken of negating the Mutual Defense Agreement with the USA but took no action on that.

Wednesday the new foreign minister of the Phils said Manila would invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty with the USA if Beijing took any hostile action against Phils forces defending its waters or flying recon patrols with US and Australian aircraft over the SCS, or if China occupied any Phils territory such as the Scarborough Shoal among numerous sea features Beijing continues to menace.

The senior Phils diplomat Lauro Baja, who twice served as president of the United Nations Security Council, said that “whether we like it or not a military confrontation between the US and China will involve us, and the Philippines will have no choice but to find itself siding with the US.” This is true of the vast number of nations throughout the region.


South China Morning Post
Hong Kong


South China Sea: ‘If China attacks our navy, we’ll call the US’, Philippines says

In a first under the Duterte administration, Manila says it is prepared to invoke its Mutual Defence Treaty with the US in the face of Chinese aggression

Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jnr also vows to continue air patrols over the South China Sea that Beijing has denounced as ‘illegal provocations’



Manila will invoke its defence agreement with the United States if China attacks its naval vessels in the South China Sea, Philippine Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jnr said on Wednesday. His comments mark the first time the Rodrigo Duterte administration has openly declared it would turn to Washington for help, amid ongoing flare-ups between Manila and Beijing in the disputed waters. Locsin said Manila would continue air patrols over the South China Sea despite Beijing’s calls to halt what it described as “illegal provocations”. “The Mutual Defence Treaty can be invoked if a Philippine vessel is attacked or if maritime features we control are occupied by force.”


Over the past few months, Manila’s language – like Hanoi’s – in its territorial dispute with Beijing has become increasingly strident and assertive. Duterte said he was “suspending” the abrogation of the VFA. Locsin said this was because it benefited “Philippine interest that we have a US presence in the region”. He said that Duterte “appointed me knowing where I was coming from … I was very firm about protecting what was ours, I was very firm in never bending a knee to China”. Locsin [said] “I can tell you, I don’t foreclose any means to protect sovereignty and freedom of my country. That includes the worst.”

South China Sea: ‘If China attacks our navy, we’ll call the US’, Philippines says | South China Morning Post
 
I don't think the US public would accept the kind of casualty figures a war with China would involve.
I think the loss of a carrier which is a distinct possibility would create calls for an end to hostilities.

This isn't the 1940's any more.

There won't be any USA war with China.

There would be an incident or a limited engagement involving mainly ships and missiles and a Chinese armed island or two that would have to be initiated by Beijing. Beijing would not initiate any such thing because the Chinese people will not accept Beijing being the initiator of a war and against the United States especially. No way the vast number of Chinese people would accept that by Beijing. None.

Beijing knows that the consequence of initiating a low intensity engagement and losing it means the CCP would be required to demilitarize its islands natural and artificial; surrender its wild and absurd claims to the whole of the Sea. CCP knows it would be humiliated and be at a great risk domestically with the Chinese people.

Beijing won't be going after any carrier that it couldn't knock out anyway nor would it want to try against a carrier. The attempt would be an escalation Beijing would know better to even consider. Because while one never underestimates the enemy, China, one would be equally foolish to build 'em up as supermen or to ignore Chinese public opinion itself concerning a war.
 
I don't think the US public would accept the kind of casualty figures a war with China would involve.
I think the loss of a carrier which is a distinct possibility would create calls for an end to hostilities.

This isn't the 1940's any more.
At that time, the United States did not intend to be involved in the war with Japan. Sometimes it was the form that forced the United States to choose war.
 
As a Chinese, I very much hope that the United States bullies the Communist Party of China

Around a few minutes and the US could destroy China and the world for that matter, so relax and enjoy the show
 
I don’t see much the US can do as far as the SCS. Between the distance and the state of the Navy.

USA has five formal mutual defense treaty allies right there:

Japan
South Korea
Philippines
Thailand
Australia
New Zealand

Plus there is Guam and other island states.

USA has supply and logistics agreements with Vietnam and the 5 treaty allies Plus Singapore.

In 2015 India signed a "Strategic Partnership" with the USA granting the US full access to all India military bases to include for operations against a third country, as India doesn't trust or like China either. In India they still refer to "The War" meaning 1962. Russia is not a player in this agreement nor is Russia involved with other countries in these respects.

You don't see much because perhaps you're not thinking much or keeping up much.
 
The Philippines has returned to the side of the USA against CCP Boyz in Beijing in the South China Sea disputes and in the East Asia-Western Pacific strategic region.

Pres. Duterte has reversed his decision to abrogate the US Visiting Forces Agreement signed during the Obama Administration and which Duterte negated immediately upon becoming president in 2016. Duterte said his abrogation of the US VFA is no longer in force. Duterte had also spoken of negating the Mutual Defense Agreement with the USA but took no action on that.

Wednesday the new foreign minister of the Phils said Manila would invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty with the USA if Beijing took any hostile action against Phils forces defending its waters or flying recon patrols with US and Australian aircraft over the SCS, or if China occupied any Phils territory such as the Scarborough Shoal among numerous sea features Beijing continues to menace.

The senior Phils diplomat Lauro Baja, who twice served as president of the United Nations Security Council, said that “whether we like it or not a military confrontation between the US and China will involve us, and the Philippines will have no choice but to find itself siding with the US.” This is true of the vast number of nations throughout the region.


South China Morning Post
Hong Kong


South China Sea: ‘If China attacks our navy, we’ll call the US’, Philippines says

In a first under the Duterte administration, Manila says it is prepared to invoke its Mutual Defence Treaty with the US in the face of Chinese aggression

Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jnr also vows to continue air patrols over the South China Sea that Beijing has denounced as ‘illegal provocations’

Duterte is so ****ed up on drugs, he would not know what day it is, having said that, there is a lot of hatred of the Chinese going on in the Philippines
 
Why is the possibility of a hot war between China and the United States very high?
1. Some analysts believe that a hot war between China and the United States is almost impossible. You can see the attitude of the United States towards Iran and North Korea. These two evil regimes challenged the United States everywhere, and they did not see the United States carrying out military attacks on them. The strength of the Communist Party of China is far above these two countries. It can be seen that the United States will not really launch a war against the Communist Party of China, but the United States will only fight a public opinion war with the Communist Party of China.
A / the above statement is obviously wrong. The United States and its allies have carried out military operations against Iran. Iran's military targets have been repeatedly bombed, and senior military commanders have even been cleared at designated points.
After all, Iran and North Korea pose very small military threats to the United States, while the Communist Party of China directly confronts the United States in the South China Sea, which is equivalent to the two armed forces setting out to challenge each other. In the long run, the United States will not tolerate it. And there's a risk of gun fire.
2. America's greatest fear is casualties. The evil regime of the Communist Party of China spread the virus all over the world, and more than 100000 people died in the United States because of the epidemic. An important consideration for the United States to avoid getting involved in the war is obviously that the sacrifice of soldiers is the highest price. But now it is almost certain that the Chinese Communist Party has deliberately allowed the epidemic to spread around the world. If the United States has suffered such serious economic and personnel losses, how can the United States swallow this breath and swallow it if it can not get certain compensation? Even if the United States pays the price of thousands of people, it is worthwhile for the United States to punish the Communist Party of China for deliberately spreading the plague through hot war.
3. Understanding the strategic value of Taiwan
Taiwan, as a model of Chinese democracy, obviously has the power of an example for the 1.4 billion people in the mainland, which proves that Chinese people are also suitable for democracy. The existence of the Republic of China in Taiwan must inspire the people of the mainland to pursue democracy. Therefore, the existence of the Republic of China in Taiwan poses a great threat to the rationality of its regime from within the Communist Party of China. Whether from the concept or the actual operation process, the Republic of China in Taiwan is the most important force to subvert the CPC regime. We believe that once the democratic revolution in Chinese mainland has been carried out to a certain extent, Taiwanese will devote themselves to it and play an important role. Once Taiwan is conquered by the Chinese Communist Party, the evil regime of the Communist Party will be more stable, which is not conducive to the interests of the United States. A democratic China in the future will be the closest ally of the United States and will be able to fully assist the United States in handling global affairs.
4. The United States hopes to formally declare a break with the Communist Party of China to the whole world through a hot war, drive the CPC out of the world trade system and isolate the CPC in an all-round way, which can relieve the threat of the CPC to the United States and the world.
5. The United States cannot allow the Chinese Communist Party to succeed in the South China Sea and Taiwan issues. Otherwise, the two most important allies of the United States in East Asia will have to alienate the United States and become the vassals of the Communist Party of China. Historically, these two countries Japan and Korea were China's dependent countries. In this way, the real Chinese Communist empire was formed. America's global dominance is about to be overturned. The United States must confront the Communist Party of China in Taiwan and the South China Sea issues, so it is reasonable that even if a hot war breaks out.
Junzhuo Gu 08/27/2020

no....
 
USA has five formal mutual defense treaty allies right there:

Japan
South Korea
Philippines
Thailand
Australia
New Zealand

Plus there is Guam and other island states.

USA has supply and logistics agreements with Vietnam and the 5 treaty allies Plus Singapore.

In 2015 India signed a "Strategic Partnership" with the USA granting the US full access to all India military bases to include for operations against a third country, as India doesn't trust or like China either. In India they still refer to "The War" meaning 1962. Russia is not a player in this agreement nor is Russia involved with other countries in these respects.

You don't see much because perhaps you're not thinking much or keeping up much.


Don’t you have shoes to spit-shine or brass to polish?

We have as much control over the SCS as the PRC does over the Gulf of Mexico.
 
Around a few minutes and the US could destroy China and the world for that matter, so relax and enjoy the show

To destroy the army of the Communist Party of China, we Chinese people destroy the rule of the Communist Party from within.
 
Don’t you have shoes to spit-shine or brass to polish?

We have as much control over the SCS as the PRC does over the Gulf of Mexico.

No, because we're talking two different serpents in two different bodies of water in two different parts of the world.

When you can find Japan and the Phils in the Gulf of Mexico and also find Cuba and Jamacia in the South China Sea I'll swim the Panama Canal with you alongside me paddling your dinghy.

This is how ridiculously absurd your surrender monkey statements are about it.
 
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