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All throughout history, when two powers bump heads like America and China are bumping heads at the moment, it leads to war.
If it doesn't lead to war, we're in a new era.
We might have nukes to thank for the peace.
You bring to mind the historical Thucydides Trap as it's recently come to be called according to which a rising power challenges an established power and that leads to war, at least in the majority of instances cited in history by proponents. Thucydides was the first to make this observation in the Peloponnesian War when a rising Athens was seen as a challenge by the dominant Sparta, war ensued and Sparta prevailed.
The Thcydides Trap
The term describes the theory that when a great power's position as hegemon is threatened by an emerging power, there is a significant likelihood of war between the two powers.[1][2] Or in coiner Graham Allison's words:
Thucydides's Trap refers to the natural, inevitable discombobulation that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power...[and] when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, the resulting structural stress makes a violent clash the rule, not the exception.[8]
To advance his thesis, Allison led a case study by the Harvard University Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs which found that among 16 historical instances of an emerging power rivaling a ruling power, 12 ended in war.[3][9]
While until now it's been said a war between USA and China would be an accident, ie, unintentionally as supposedly involved Germany challenging Britain and WW I, it's being said presently a war between USA and China would not be an accident. In other words of course, it would be a conscious choice and decision, mutually.
Not.
Chinese abhor war. The historic reason is that the Chinese are terrible at war. The present reason is that the entire Chinese economy depends on global trade, without which and with a war would collapse the China economy and war effort quickly and decisively. Xi Jinping is working feverishly to try to squeeze Taiwan into a political capitulation because he knows an invasion attack against Taiwan would be a disaster for the PLA that would moreover be catastrophic to the CCP.
Under Trump USN has set new records for Freedom of Navigation Ops in the South China Sea, doing three in one month for the first time in April, as just one measurement. Trump is driving the CCP Boyz in Beijing to drink so to speak because there is absolutely nothing they can do to counter the FONOPS or to stop 'em and that any kind of active military engagement or conflict is a guaranteed loser to 'em.
So no, no war, no military engagement by China against the USA because a military conflict is the number one don't in Beijing and it is way ahead of rule #2, which is that if war looks inevitable see rule number one. The only possible but not guaranteed way for China to prevail is without firing a shot because if shots are fired the Chinese get plugged full of holes every time. All the same however, Trump with the so called trade war has knocked China's dubious rise back ten years already and without the US firing a shot.
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