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Why is Paul running behind McCain?

haymarket

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Allow me to steal a line from Denzel Washington in PHILADEPLHIA ....Maybe somebody can explain this to me like I am a four year old.

By all accounts, this is a Republican year. Almost every poll and measurement says the party has turned things around and is expected to win back at least the House and possible even the Senate in just a few days. GOP candidates in states and districts won by Barack Obama just two years ago have big leads over Democratic opponents. One example is Michigan where Obama won so handily that the McCain campaign closed up shop a month before votes were even cast. Now, the GOP candidate for governor has a 20+ point lead over his Democratic rival.

But then we have Kentucky. Consider that two years ago, Barack Obama lost the state to John McCain by 16 percentage points. By almost any measurement, Kentucky is a solid and deep red state. So in this year of a GOP tsunami, why is the GOP candidate for Senate running behind John McCains performance level of two years ago?

Should not Rand Paul be at least 20 points ahead by this point? Instead most polls show him with a 8 to 10 point lead and some even had it much closer before Conway put out those stupid Aqua Buddha ads and shot himself in the foot.

So how do you explain this?
 

Coronado

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Well gee, I guess it's because Rand Paul has libertarian leanings. He also kills puppies in his spare time and is not a good tipper. :roll:

There, now you have the answer you wanted to hear. You may thank me at your leisure.

[/thread]
 

haymarket

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We can only hope that the post election political analysts will approach the same question with a more serious intent and response.

Here is something you probably do not realize Coronado - I really will not mind if Rand Paul wins. In fact, I would rather he win than lose.
 
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ARealConservative

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Well gee, I guess it's because Rand Paul has libertarian leanings. He also kills puppies in his spare time and is not a good tipper. :roll:

There, now you have the answer you wanted to hear. You may thank me at your leisure.

[/thread]
a current poll shows that Rand's 8% lead would only be 2% if Trey Greyson was the choice.

So the idea that a libertarian leaning conservative is potential trouble for the GOP is a non-starter.
 

haymarket

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but you never explained why in this year of the GOP tsunami, Paul is barely surfing a small wave.
 

Ockham

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but you never explained why in this year of the GOP tsunami, Paul is barely surfing a small wave.
Because these elections are not all local, they have national visibility.
 

ARealConservative

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but you never explained why in this year of the GOP tsunami, Paul is barely surfing a small wave.
I'm not sure that a senatorial election is a fair comparison with a presidential election.

I do know that democrats outnumber republicans by a large margin in Kentucky, but approx 30% of democrats are voting for Paul.

What percentages did Mitch McConnell win with?


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just as I expected

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/senate/ky/kentucky_senate-917.html

notice how much tighter the senate race was compared to presidential in 08. Paul will win with a larger margin then McConnell I think.
 
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