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Why did Russia Mobilize Such a Seemingly Small Invasion Force against the Ukraine?

So you're thinking he's going to turn Kyiv into a crater? What possible good will that do him?
I think the gloves will come off sooner or later if Zelensky’s government doesn’t capitulate. Cities can be rebuilt. Kyiv was razed and rebuilt many times before it was absorbed by Russia.
 
it looks like he's been advancing behind an artillery assault rather than an air campaign

That is actually right out of the old Warsaw Pact playbook.

The Soviets knew from what they saw in WWII that there was no guarantee that they could achieve air superiority. They hoped for it, but it was never a guarantee so they planned all of their tactics around that fact.

Essentially moving all units up into place then assaulting after an intense artillery and rocket bombardment.
 
On top of having conventional superiority over the Ukrainians at virtually all levels, the Russians don't generally prefer to take huge chunks, and instead hold strategic locations like they did in Georgia.

Ukraine only has a handful of major urban areas that can be considered of major strategic value since the country is so large; controlling them grants control to major highways and railways from which lateral transfer of troops is possible; sort of like Russia.

I doubt the Russians want a full occupation; they'll settle for controlling a handful of major areas and use that to dictate terms.
My understanding was he had 600-700 massed near the Ukraine border? I suspect we will see many more actually cross that border.
 
I think the gloves will come off sooner or later if Zelensky’s government doesn’t capitulate. Cities can be rebuilt. Kyiv was razed and rebuilt many times before it was absorbed by Russia.

You're really all in for Putin, aren't you?
 
By the way, that 40 mile convoy is a ****ing disaster. LOL.

They can't get food past the back 10 miles.
 
I think the gloves will come off sooner or later if Zelensky’s government doesn’t capitulate. Cities can be rebuilt. Kyiv was razed and rebuilt many times before it was absorbed by Russia.

Justifying the ruination of Kiev by Putin. Why am I not one bit surprised.
 
This evening an email appeared in my inbox linking to an article in Newsweek, analyzing the Russian Military performance. I've read lots of disappointing articles from think tanks and other professional sources and had little hope for this one being any better...I mean its Newsweek, right?

Well, it's the best lay person's miliary essay on this war that I have read. Answers many questions. I'll provide a summary and post the link at the bottom:

Russia's ground forces lost most of its momentum on the first day, undermined by insufficient fuel, ammunition, and even food. This invasion wasn't like the assumed doctrine of lining up artillery and killing everything in front.

Thursday at 4AM Russia invaded along 4 main axes. Keiv, Kharkiv, from Crimea to Odessa, and from Luhansk. They launched 160 Russian missiles from air, land and sea. Launched. 80 Russian bombers and fighters on first strikes, attacking in two primary waves. "About 400 attacks in the first 24 hours, the strike force hit, according to U.S. intelligence sources and reports on the ground, 15 command control nodes and military headquarters, 18 air defense installations, 11 airfields, and six military bases."

Not overwhelming, just enough to pave their way into the capital and topple the government. Russian ground forces moved into Ukraine, using their own artillery and missile strikes. Paratroopers flown to Hostomel airfield, north of Kyiv, the group tasked with the quick overthrow.

Helicopters landed. But the first setback occurred, the Ukrainians took airfield back. The forward edge of the main force then got bogged down and stopped, 20 miles north of Kyiv. Logistics faltered. Ukrainian ground defenders struck, as well as still operational Ukrainian jet fighters and scored unexpected victories on advancing force. Numerous stories of confused and unmotivated Russian troops. Resistance by civilians was totally unexpected. Ukrainian's expected to drop their rifles and surrender.

Except for long range strikes, everything else failed. Ukrainian air defenses remained operational, airfields continued to operate, defenders able to hold ground and freely move around country. Ukrainian reserves unexpectedly rapidly mobilized, as well as civilian fighters. Shockingly, all the Russian airborne and special forces inserted deep, were surrounded, cutoff from ammo resupply.

Russia failed to integrate electronic warfare, cyber, space—into the military attack. Electricity flowed, and the telecommunications infrastructure (including the internet) was in full swing. One problem was their strategy, if you are going to occupy a country only so much infrastructure can be destroyed. And overtly attacking Ukrainian people, fellow "Russians", would backfire.

The 150K invaders pushed in from 15 directions which seriously diluted power, due to Moscow's confidence that the Ukrainians would not resist, or even welcome them.

Days Two and Three of the Russian invasion, the eastern attacks from Russia—where the strongest supply lines exited—continued to advance. Some 12 battalion tactical groups (about 11,000 troops) made it to Okhtyrka, about 100 miles from Kyiv. Tanks also entered the city of Kharkiv after extensive shelling, and then escalated attacks inside the city, hoping to take Ukraine's second city. The bulk of the Russian main force north of Kyiv, some 17 battalion tactical groups and supporting units (24,000 troops) operating on the west bank of the Dnieper, made limited progress. Forward elements made it into the northern suburbs by Saturday. By Monday, there was heavy fighting near the capital city center.

By the end of the first 72 hours, the bulk of Russian attacks had shifted to long-range artillery and missile strikes, most from Russian and Belarussian territory, where the launchers are immune from retaliation.

Russia claimed that the number of Ukrainian "aimpoints" at targets attacked had doubled to 820, including 14 airfields and 48 air defense installations. Russia also claimed that 87 Ukrainian tanks "and other targets" were destroyed on the battlefield.

Russians are losing 1000 soldiers each day, killed and wounded, Ukrainians same losses. US intelligence seeing increasing desertions of Russians. Russia has delivered 11,000 bombs and missiles, hitting 820 strike points, a 7% success rate (US equivalent in 2003 Iraq was well over 80%). In three days Russians have hit 1/4 of aimpoints that US hit in opening airstrikes in Iraq.

Russian attacks not coordinated, focusing piecemeal on systems suppression. They are very good at leveling cities, not so good at anything else.

 
This evening an email appeared in my inbox linking to an article in Newsweek, analyzing the Russian Military performance. I've read lots of disappointing articles from think tanks and other professional sources and had little hope for this one being any better...I mean its Newsweek, right?

Well, it's the best lay person's miliary essay on this war that I have read. Answers many questions. I'll provide a summary and post the link at the bottom:

Russia's ground forces lost most of its momentum on the first day, undermined by insufficient fuel, ammunition, and even food. This invasion wasn't like the assumed doctrine of lining up artillery and killing everything in front.

Thursday at 4AM Russia invaded along 4 main axes. Keiv, Kharkiv, from Crimea to Odessa, and from Luhansk. They launched 160 Russian missiles from air, land and sea. Launched. 80 Russian bombers and fighters on first strikes, attacking in two primary waves. "About 400 attacks in the first 24 hours, the strike force hit, according to U.S. intelligence sources and reports on the ground, 15 command control nodes and military headquarters, 18 air defense installations, 11 airfields, and six military bases."

Not overwhelming, just enough to pave their way into the capital and topple the government. Russian ground forces moved into Ukraine, using their own artillery and missile strikes. Paratroopers flown to Hostomel airfield, north of Kyiv, the group tasked with the quick overthrow.

Helicopters landed. But the first setback occurred, the Ukrainians took airfield back. The forward edge of the main force then got bogged down and stopped, 20 miles north of Kyiv. Logistics faltered. Ukrainian ground defenders struck, as well as still operational Ukrainian jet fighters and scored unexpected victories on advancing force. Numerous stories of confused and unmotivated Russian troops. Resistance by civilians was totally unexpected. Ukrainian's expected to drop their rifles and surrender.

Except for long range strikes, everything else failed. Ukrainian air defenses remained operational, airfields continued to operate, defenders able to hold ground and freely move around country. Ukrainian reserves unexpectedly rapidly mobilized, as well as civilian fighters. Shockingly, all the Russian airborne and special forces inserted deep, were surrounded, cutoff from ammo resupply.

Russia failed to integrate electronic warfare, cyber, space—into the military attack. Electricity flowed, and the telecommunications infrastructure (including the internet) was in full swing. One problem was their strategy, if you are going to occupy a country only so much infrastructure can be destroyed. And overtly attacking Ukrainian people, fellow "Russians", would backfire.

The 150K invaders pushed in from 15 directions which seriously diluted power, due to Moscow's confidence that the Ukrainians would not resist, or even welcome them.

Days Two and Three of the Russian invasion, the eastern attacks from Russia—where the strongest supply lines exited—continued to advance. Some 12 battalion tactical groups (about 11,000 troops) made it to Okhtyrka, about 100 miles from Kyiv. Tanks also entered the city of Kharkiv after extensive shelling, and then escalated attacks inside the city, hoping to take Ukraine's second city. The bulk of the Russian main force north of Kyiv, some 17 battalion tactical groups and supporting units (24,000 troops) operating on the west bank of the Dnieper, made limited progress. Forward elements made it into the northern suburbs by Saturday. By Monday, there was heavy fighting near the capital city center.

By the end of the first 72 hours, the bulk of Russian attacks had shifted to long-range artillery and missile strikes, most from Russian and Belarussian territory, where the launchers are immune from retaliation.

Russia claimed that the number of Ukrainian "aimpoints" at targets attacked had doubled to 820, including 14 airfields and 48 air defense installations. Russia also claimed that 87 Ukrainian tanks "and other targets" were destroyed on the battlefield.

Russians are losing 1000 soldiers each day, killed and wounded, Ukrainians same losses. US intelligence seeing increasing desertions of Russians. Russia has delivered 11,000 bombs and missiles, hitting 820 strike points, a 7% success rate (US equivalent in 2003 Iraq was well over 80%). In three days Russians have hit 1/4 of aimpoints that US hit in opening airstrikes in Iraq.

Russian attacks not coordinated, focusing piecemeal on systems suppression. They are very good at leveling cities, not so good at anything else.


Good article, maxparrish. Thanks for posting.
 
Probably the biggest reason is that you never want to commit a large percentage of your forces to one operation if you're anticipating having to defend on another front. Putin is likely planning for the prospect of aggression against him from another direction.
My thinking (purely guesswork) is that Putin keeps his best troops in Moscow in case of internal coup attempts against him.
 
My understanding was he had 600-700 massed near the Ukraine border? I suspect we will see many more actually cross that border.

I haven't seen numbers that high reported anywhere.
 
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