Why abortion may be a winning issue for Democrats

[Phys251]

Why Abortion May Be A Winning Issue For Democrats

On Tuesday, we got our first test of how potent an issue abortion might be for Democrats this fall. In a state that overwhelmingly voted for then-President Dona…

fivethirtyeight.com

Independents are also moving toward supporting unrestricted abortion access. The share of unaffiliated voters who think abortion should be legal in all cases has increased by 5 percentage points over the past year in Civiqs’s daily tracking poll, while the data from YouGov/The Economist reveals an even sharper surge. Just 17 percent of independents thought there should be no restrictions on abortion in the April 9-12 YouGov/The Economist poll, but in the six weekly surveys they conducted since Dobbs became the law of the land, that number among independents has climbed to an average of 29 percent.

Democrats are increasingly unified and motivated to return to the status quo of legal abortions under Roe — a constitutional right that most Americans had long taken for granted. Republicans, meanwhile, are more divided and demobilized by an issue that has historically rallied its base. And independents are closer to Democrats on abortion, especially in states where Republican lawmakers have passed overwhelmingly unpopular abortion bans without exceptions for rape and incest.

Anti-choicers are like a dog who's caught the car and doesn't know what to do with it. Abortion rights have become a political rallying cry for Democrats, and it's working.

 

[AGENT J]

if enough individual righties make it a battle against the lefties then YES its will turn into a winning issue

because the reality is prochoice laws are a win for AMERICA hence why the vast majority of first world countries with government based on rights and freedoms have prochoice laws

MILLIONS of republicans support pro-choice laws, MILLIONS of Christians support prochoice laws because they support CHOICE, not force and because they support women rights and don't want women treated as lesser

 

[soylentgreen]

Considering that america runs a winner takes all election system and the disparity between republican and others. No matter what democrats may achieve in bringing back roe the opposition will take it away next election. As long as abortion is seen as a legal issue it will be a political football. Abortion is a medical issue.

 

[minnie616]

Considering that america runs a winner takes all election system and the disparity between republican and others. No matter what democrats may achieve in bringing back roe the opposition will take it away next election. As long as abortion is seen as a legal issue it will be a political football. Abortion is a medical issue.

I agree that abortion is a medical issue not a political issue.

Roe never should have been overturned and given to the states … thus taking away doctors rights to use the best medical procedures to treat their patients.

 

[tshade]

 

[mac]

Why Abortion May Be A Winning Issue For Democrats

On Tuesday, we got our first test of how potent an issue abortion might be for Democrats this fall. In a state that overwhelmingly voted for then-President Dona…

fivethirtyeight.com

Anti-choicers are like a dog who's caught the car and doesn't know what to do with it. Abortion rights have become a political rallying cry for Democrats, and it's working.

Considering that the majority of the increase to the pro-choice side already identified as Democrat, I don't see it as much of strength in the next election.

 

[Phys251]

Considering that the majority of the increase to the pro-choice side already identified as Democrat, I don't see it as much of strength in the next election.

Turnout matters. The fall of Roe is already driving more Democratic turnover.

 

[911Sparky]

Considering that the majority of the increase to the pro-choice side already identified as Democrat, I don't see it as much of strength in the next election.

For the first time I'm thinking that dems have a chance (small, but none the less a chance) to hold the house and I'm confident we will hold the senate, since reps decided to run whackjobs in several states. I do know if I were a republican member of the house or senate, I would be seriously engaging in talks to codify
reasonable restrictions on abortion nationally, but keeping it legal, thereby taking it off the table as a 2022 issue.

 

[AGENT J]

For the first time I'm thinking that dems have a chance (small, but none the less a chance) to hold the house and I'm confident we will hold the senate, since reps decided to run whackjobs in several states. I do know if I were a republican member of the house or senate, I would be seriously engaging in talks to codify
reasonable restrictions on abortion nationally, but keeping it legal, thereby taking it off the table as a 2022 issue.

I think that would be a miracle and would go totally against recent history left and right
but with the nutty pendulum swing in UPPER congress GOP i would welcome it, i just don't see it at all

 

[mac]

For the first time I'm thinking that dems have a chance (small, but none the less a chance) to hold the house and I'm confident we will hold the senate, since reps decided to run whackjobs in several states. I do know if I were a republican member of the house or senate, I would be seriously engaging in talks to codify
reasonable restrictions on abortion nationally, but keeping it legal, thereby taking it off the table as a 2022 issue.

Maybe, but I don't think it will overcome the effect of the economy and Biden's poor performance. If every red state enacts severe restrictions, maybe you have a chance.

 

[911Sparky]

Maybe, but I don't think it will overcome the effect of the economy and Biden's poor performance. If every red state enacts severe restrictions, maybe you have a chance.

The economy is still roaring along, have you seen todays jobs report? If the economy keeps improving reps will have less to talk about, meanwhile it looks like abortion is going to be an issue into the midterms. Reps should be worried.

 

[mac]

Turnout matters. The fall of Roe is already driving more Democratic turnover.

By Democratic turnover I assume you mean people are switching to the Democratic party? The numbers say otherwise.

 

[mac]

The economy is still roaring along, have you seen todays jobs report? If the economy keeps improving reps will have less to talk about, meanwhile it looks like abortion is going to be an issue into the midterms. Reps should be worried.

Not if they don't get inflation under control.

 

[911Sparky]

Not if they don't get inflation under control.

A sensible person would know that reps do not have a magic bullet to halt inflation, they use the same economist's that dems do. I don't vote using promises of halting inflation, only fools do.

 

[mac]

A sensible person would know that reps do not have a magic bullet to halt inflation, they use the same economist's that dems do. I don't vote using promises of halting inflation, only fools do.

There is quite a bit that can be done, and that which should have been done but wasn't. That is going to reflect heavily on the current (Democratic) administration and be strongly reflected down ballot. What "might" happen as a result of overturning RvW, which was well known to be bad law, is not likely to outweigh the very real and present impacts of higher prices at the pump and grocery store.

 

[lwf]

By Democratic turnover I assume you mean people are switching to the Democratic party? The numbers say otherwise.

Those numbers don't take the Dobbs decision into account. It is expected for people to switch to the other party during the administration of a president. The same thing happened to Trump. Abortion is a wild card here though. It is possible that inflation will be what people vote on, but it is equally possible that people will come out in droves to vote on the abortion issue. They certainly did in Kansas.

 

[mac]

Those numbers don't take the Dobbs decision into account. It is expected for people to switch to the other party during the administration of a president. The same thing happened to Trump. Abortion is a wild card here though. It is possible that inflation will be what people vote on, but it is equally possible that people will come out in droves to vote on the abortion issue. They certainly did in Kansas.

Until someone (some republican) has the sense to market overturning RvW as the vehicle that allowed people to decide for themselves what should be legal in their own states. As it should be. On a side note, the Kansas ammendment was over-broad. Had it been worded to restrict abortion rather than ban it outright, it probably would have passed.

 

[911Sparky]

There is quite a bit that can be done, and that which should have been done but wasn't. That is going to reflect heavily on the current (Democratic) administration and be strongly reflected down ballot. What "might" happen as a result of overturning RvW, which was well known to be bad law, is not likely to outweigh the very real and present impacts of higher prices at the pump and grocery store.

I think you will find that most people know that inflation is only temporary, whereas the abortion laws pushed by reps are permanent intrusions into women's
medical care, and will vote accordingly.

 

[lwf]

Until someone (some republican) has the sense to market overturning RvW as the vehicle that allowed people to decide for themselves what should be legal in their own states. As it should be. On a side note, the Kansas ammendment was over-broad. Had it been worded to restrict abortion rather than ban it outright, it probably would have passed.

I doubt it. It brought out the voters to make a statement, which is unusual for a vote on nothing more than a state amendment, precisely because it was an amendment to restrict abortion. And it happened in a firmly red state of all places. I don't see how the results would be anything other than far more pronounced if it had been a primary for a senator in a red state or a presidential election.

We'll know more in the coming weeks, but Kansas seems to have been a referendum on the Dobbs decision, and access to abortion seems to be at the top of voters' concerns this season even in the red states. Pretending that this is about "states rights" is a losing argument here, as women's rights will always beat "states rights."

 

[minnie616]

Not if they don't get inflation under control.

Mortgage rates are about 4.5 percent and have been going down since June. Unemployment rate is down to 3.5 and gasoline prices while higher than last year have been falling daily for the last 50 days. And gasoline down almost $1.00 a gallon since last June.


As @laf pointed out the Dobbs decision brought out out voters in Kansas who were unhappy with that
Supreme Court decision.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Republicans are starting to reconsider their hardline stances against abortion, motivated by something much more important to them than a fertilized egg: career longevity:

Republicans Begin Adjusting to a Fierce Abortion Backlash

Republican candidates, facing a stark reality check from Kansas voters, are softening their once-uncompromising stands against abortion as they move toward the general election, recognizing that strict bans are unpopular and that the issue may be a major driver in the fall campaigns. In swing...

www.yahoo.com

Republican candidates, facing a stark reality check from Kansas voters, are softening their once-uncompromising stands against abortion as they move toward the general election, recognizing that strict bans are unpopular and that the issue may be a major driver in the fall campaigns.

Republican consultants for Senate and House campaigns said Thursday that while they still believe inflation and the economy will drive voters to the GOP, candidates are going to have to talk about abortion to blunt Democratic attacks that the party’s position is extreme. They have started advising Republicans to endorse bans that allow exceptions for pregnancies from rape or incest or those that threaten the life of the mother. They have told candidates to emphasize care for women during and after their pregnancies.

Despite the political cynicism in shifting their position in the face of public backlash, one is wise not to assume these sorts will maintain the shift in their hardline stance on bans should they win elected office:

"I take them at their first word,” he said of Jensen and his running mate, Matt Birk, a former NFL player and anti-abortion rights advocate. “If they get the opportunity they will criminalize this while we’re trying to protect it. So it’s become a central theme, obviously, I think that flip on their part was in response to that.”

Exactly right.

 

[Ishm]

Is this debate just about abortion, or is it least partly driven by recognition of the type of authoritarian rule that the gop has started to embrace as they attempt to polarise the nation to their previously assumed vote catching advantage?

 

[choiceone]

Until someone (some republican) has the sense to market overturning RvW as the vehicle that allowed people to decide for themselves what should be legal in their own states. As it should be. On a side note, the Kansas ammendment was over-broad. Had it been worded to restrict abortion rather than ban it outright, it probably would have passed.

State governments should not have the right to use female state residents as government sex slaves, but any girl or woman who is forced to continue a pregnancy by law is being treated as a government breeding animal.

The Kansas amendment merely said that the legislators and governor should decide about any restrictions or freedoms instead of individual women and doctors.

It would never have passed. The majority of women are too intelligent to think that government strangers with ignorance of medicine and pregnancy should decide, or that men and older women should control their sex organs against their will.

The anti-choice people actually tried to trick Kansas women into voting YES by telling them this was for protecting their choice, when it was really for allowing the legislature to take it away from them. Thank God the pro-choice door-to-door workers and the pro-choice signs made it clear that individuals protected their choice by NO, the word every girl and woman should learn to stop incorrigible people from trying to turn them into sex slaves.

 

[reflechissez]

There is quite a bit that can be done, and that which should have been done but wasn't. That is going to reflect heavily on the current (Democratic) administration and be strongly reflected down ballot. What "might" happen as a result of overturning RvW, which was well known to be bad law, is not likely to outweigh the very real and present impacts of higher prices at the pump and grocery store.

Like what?

 

[mac]

Mortgage rates are about 4.5 percent and have been going down since June. Unemployment rate is down to 3.5 and gasoline prices while higher than last year have been falling daily for the last 50 days. And gasoline down almost $1.00 a gallon since last June./quote

In other words, gas and interest rates are significantly higher than when he took office, and unemployment is now reaching the historic low that occured under the Trump administration.

As @laf pointed out the Dobbs decision brought out out voters in Kansas who were unhappy with that
Supreme Court decision.

Right, the SCOTUS decision allowed real democracy to occur.