Who will win the first debate?

[Chomsky]

Based on how they are currently doing, Joe Biden will probably be able to win on substance, and Donald Trump will be able to win on performance. Which means Donald Trump will win, because performance is the only thing that matters in a televised political debate.

A bit cynical, but accurate I believe.

 

[Chomsky]

First of all most folks thought Romney had Obama on the ropes after the second debate even despite Candy Crawley interjecting herself in the debate with misinformation, and in the third debate Romney failed to go for the kill.

Great analysis. I agree!

 

[Integrityrespec]

Based on how they are currently doing, Joe Biden will probably be able to win on substance, and Donald Trump will be able to win on performance. Which means Donald Trump will win, because performance is the only thing that matters in a televised political debate.

If Trump is smart he will work to get Biden flustered, Biden isn't good under pressure and his temper causes him to loose control of his facts. I hope Wallace asks about the Senate investigation into Hunter and his money from China, Ukraine and Russia.

 

[uptower]

The problem is even after the fact - much less before - the result will be subjective: people will see the candidate they 'like' better as performing better and vice versa for the one they 'dislike'.

Subjectively those who like the Democratic platform will no doubt choose Biden, regardless of how well he sells it.

Objectively, those in the middle seeking substance are more likely to find favor with Biden's performance, but will not necessarily call him the 'winner' if they don't like his platform.

Those who prefer Trump's theatrics and tune in expecting the usual boorishness and name-calling will probably call it a win when he 'owns' Biden thus.

Or we could just go on viewer ratings and those will probably reflect the current aggregate polling anyway, with Biden maybe 5-10 points ahead.

So the debates end up being a Rorschach test of sorts. The only ones whose opinions on what constitutes 'winning a debate' can really be trusted are the tiny few who are currently undecided, but after watching find one candidate more convincing, or who leaned one way but are more inclined now to consider switching.

 

[Chomsky]

Good chance Biden will ramble incoherently at times, but if he's on point, don't underestimate him. Trump will bloviate, interrupt, and talk over Biden and the moderator. He will say "wrong" at least 50 times. I hope Biden doesn't try to kiss anybody, although it might be good for the country if he gave Trump a big ol' smacker on the lips.

Great insight, in the bolded. I agree. Biden can vacillate between 'dithering old man', and a sharp 'no malarkey' Irishman. We just don't know which one will show up.

But I do believe bidden will rule the compassion & empathy card. I think he would be smart to continue his 'Scranton v Park Avenue' theme. He needs to wrest the 'working mans' advocate' title away from Trump, and he might just be the right guy to do it. If he can do that - go after Trump's jugular - he might move the seemingly immovable needle by a hair.

Ditto with the economy. Biden needs to hit there too, comparing the Obama economic run to Trump's current failure. To defend his poor current record, Trump will have no choice but to invoke the pandemic - and that's exactly where Biden wants him!

 

[ReubenSherr]

The problem is even after the fact - much less before - the result will be subjective: people will see the candidate they 'like' better as performing better and vice versa for the one they 'dislike'.

Subjectively those who like the Democratic platform will no doubt choose Biden, regardless of how well he sells it.

Objectively, those in the middle seeking substance are more likely to find favor with Biden's performance, but will not necessarily call him the 'winner' if they don't like his platform.

Those who prefer Trump's theatrics and tune in expecting the usual boorishness and name-calling will probably call it a win when he 'owns' Biden thus.

Or we could just go on viewer ratings and those will probably reflect the current aggregate polling anyway, with Biden maybe 5-10 points ahead.

So the debates end up being a Rorschach test of sorts. The only ones whose opinions on what constitutes 'winning a debate' can really be trusted are the tiny few who are currently undecided, but after watching find one candidate more convincing, or who leaned one way but are more inclined now to consider switching.

No one is going to be able to agree on who “wins.”

Joe could literally fall asleep and start drooling all over the podium, and liberals would say “Well at least he’ll surround himself with good people.”

The polling patterns after the debate, especially in the swing states, will determine who had a better night.

Each poll compared to the previous poll released by that same firm. Not necessarily what the RCP average does.

 

[jotathought]

I'm playing a drinking game on debate #1, and must drink everytime BIden says: "C'mon man," "You know, the thing," or "Let me tell you ..."

I shouldn't be sober for too long ...

 

[Chomsky]

The problem is even after the fact - much less before - the result will be subjective: people will see the candidate they 'like' better as performing better and vice versa for the one they 'dislike'.

Subjectively those who like the Democratic platform will no doubt choose Biden, regardless of how well he sells it.

Objectively, those in the middle seeking substance are more likely to find favor with Biden's performance, but will not necessarily call him the 'winner' if they don't like his platform.

Those who prefer Trump's theatrics and tune in expecting the usual boorishness and name-calling will probably call it a win when he 'owns' Biden thus.

Or we could just go on viewer ratings and those will probably reflect the current aggregate polling anyway, with Biden maybe 5-10 points ahead.

So the debates end up being a Rorschach test of sorts. The only ones whose opinions on what constitutes 'winning a debate' can really be trusted are the tiny few who are currently undecided, but after watching find one candidate more convincing, or who leaned one way but are more inclined now to consider switching.

Yep, 'tiny few' describes it well. I think the cake is already baked. Might as well just skip the debates, and have the election today.

 

[ASHES]

Yep, 'tiny few' describes it well. I think the cake is already baked. Might as well just skip the debates, and have the election today.

Yep.

No. Anything can happen in that time. Let it happen. It could swing wildly either way with significant enough events.

 

[vesper]

I am not going to vote in this poll because the hostile never-Trumper MSM in this country will declare Biden the winner no matter what.

 

[Jay59]

No one is going to be able to agree on who “wins.” Joe could literally fall asleep and start drooling all over the podium, and liberals would say “Well at least he’ll surround himself with good people.” The polling patterns after the debate, especially in the swing states, will determine who had a better night. Each poll compared to the previous poll released by that same firm. Not necessarily what the RCP average does.

There is some truth to this. In 2016 Hillary won every debate, if you are a debate judge. However, Trump clearly won the debates by not being blown off the stage. Winners and losers are often defined well after the event, surprisingly often by points of fact. Bush beat Gore in 2000 by catching him fudging on facts. Reagan's famous, "There you go again." was also on a point of fact.

That said, Joe could easily sink his whole campaign in the first 15 minutes. Trump has no such risk.

 

[CharloTexan]

I don't entertain Chicken Little comments.

Yep, famous last words of a fool. But Josie, when the Chicken Little comments are proven right in your future, I think you should make it your life's mission to seek out all who told you so, and admit, you effed up!

 

[Jason Warfield]

Kind of an odd question. Who do you think who perform the best at the first round of debates?

Keep in mind the following things:

The 1960 presidential debate between Kennedy and Nixon set the tone for the rest of the debates. Nixon was recovering from a knee injury on the campaign trial. He was constantly sweating and looked exhausted after trying to campaign in all 50 states. Kennedy looked rested and articulate.

George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, struggled in his first debate against Gore and Kerry, and then gradually got better.

Barack Obama pretty much won all the debates between McCain and Romney. Although Romney had a strong third debate on foreign policy.

Donald Trump in 2016 didn't win any of the debates, but still able to get the competitive advantage at the end.

Despite Biden's speech impediment and stutter, he tends to do extremely well in one-on-one debates. He had the upper hand against Palin and Ryan.

How do you think it'll go this time around? Who will come out on top the first

I voted Wallace only because it made me laugh, but also because he does have a tendency to steal the show.

But really, I think it will be Biden. Trump will be out of his FOX and OAN comfort zone and really doesn't have the basic ability to debate. Although, if he is willing to undergo a debate bootcamp like Palin did, well, perhaps he might do better than what we expect him to do.

And of course, in the highly likely event that he doesn't do well, we all know he and his lapdogs like Hannity are going to say that the debate was rigged....that the moderators shaved off time on his responses....or that moderators are part of the deep state...etc.

 

[iguanaman]

Biden was a solid debater, but his age has gotten to him, but even without the dementia biden would have a hard time debating trump, even hillary with favorable moderators did not do as well as expected.

The reason for this is trump is never scripted, even when a script is written he never follows it, he may not wow people at debates but he is also almost impossible to knock down with a surprise attack because he never plans anyways and has since 2015 winged it off the top of his head. Imagine it like a boxing match, with each side trying to predict each others punches, only to realize they can not predict trumps because he has no thought or planning he just rolls with it.

Trump will lose because he is all hat and no cattle. His lies will be torn to shreds by Biden.

 

[Puigb]

Biden will talk policy, where as Trump will ramble on about whatever idiot conspiracy theory pops into his head, and of course he'll accuse Biden and Obama of spying on him.

He'll also likely threaten to throw Biden in jail...like he did to Clinton in 2016.

His supporters though will all claim he won...like they did four years ago.

 

[Puigb]

If Wallace can’t hide his bias he’ll hand a victory to Trump among the undecideds. They typically expect fairness.

You people think anyone who doesn't kiss his feet ala Sean Hannity has "anti Trump bias", so...

 

[Puigb]

Nobody claims Trump is a great orator. Hes not. And I remember thinking that Paul Ryan was going to mop the floor with Biden in 2012. The opposite happened. The truth is, Biden is not sharp and out of practice making his risk of failure high. But then again, underestimating him could be as wrong as it was in 2012. Plus the baar is low for him. All he has to do to declare victory is not have a senior moment and land a couple rehearsed one liners. Either way, the media will declare Biden the winner no matter what.

Biden just came off winning against a record amount of presidential candidates, all which he debated, including Sanders one on one.

It's your orange messiah that's out of practice.

 

[Puigb]

Great analysis. I agree!

How so? If I recall correctly Obama did mediocre in the first debate, then Biden smacked Paul Ryan around, and then Obama schooled Romney in the second and third debates.

 

[Puigb]

Great insight, in the bolded. I agree. Biden can vacillate between 'dithering old man', and a sharp 'no malarkey' Irishman. We just don't know which one will show up.

But I do believe bidden will rule the compassion & empathy card. I think he would be smart to continue his 'Scranton v Park Avenue' theme. He needs to wrest the 'working mans' advocate' title away from Trump, and he might just be the right guy to do it. If he can do that - go after Trump's jugular - he might move the seemingly immovable needle by a hair.

Ditto with the economy. Biden needs to hit there too, comparing the Obama economic run to Trump's current failure. To defend his poor current record, Trump will have no choice but to invoke the pandemic - and that's exactly where Biden wants him!

Trump's going to do everything he can to avoid talking about the pandemic...and I have no doubt he will at some point in the debates, blame the Democrats and Fauci for the economy and the shut downs.

It's what his base expects.

 

[Puigb]

I voted Wallace only because it made me laugh, but also because he does have a tendency to steal the show.

But really, I think it will be Biden. Trump will be out of his FOX and OAN comfort zone and really doesn't have the basic ability to debate. Although, if he is willing to undergo a debate bootcamp like Palin did, well, perhaps he might do better than what we expect him to do.

And of course, in the highly likely event that he doesn't do well, we all know he and his lapdogs like Hannity are going to say that the debate was rigged....that the moderators shaved off time on his responses....or that moderators are part of the deep state...etc.

Right wing media and his supporters will also absolutely claim Wallace was biased against Trump, no matter what Wallace does.

 

[Fletch]

Biden just came off winning against a record amount of presidential candidates, all which he debated, including Sanders one on one.

It's your orange messiah that's out of practice.

Biden didnt win any of those debates and looked brain dead in most. Trump debates the press daily. Sorry but its your senile messiah thats out of practice.

 

[Josie]

Yep, famous last words of a fool. But Josie, when the Chicken Little comments are proven right in your future, I think you should make it your life's mission to seek out all who told you so, and admit, you effed up!

So you also believe this will be the last fair election?

 

[TheParser]

Americans are kind-hearted.

If Mr. Biden can stand on his feet for an hour and a half and sound relatively articulate, people may give him a pity vote as the "winner."

I doubt that he will go on to the second & third debates. It would be too exhausting for the gentleman to endure.

It will be amusing to hear the excuses that his handlers use to back out of the last debates! (Maybe something about all the "lies" that Mr. Trump said during the first debate.)

 

[bongsaway]

Addressing just your thread title question and the options you provide, it is impossible for me to make a guess. There are simply too many known and unknown variables involved...most important is the question of what kind of role and actions the moderators decide to take.

If I HAD to make a guess under these conditions, I would say Trump has the edge.

Sorta' like rumsfeld's known unknowns? I wouldn't expect anything else from your party of one.

 

[Overitall]

You people think anyone who doesn't kiss his feet ala Sean Hannity has "anti Trump bias", so...

You people think anyone who supports Trump is deplorable, so . . .