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Which States Have a Legitimate Shot of Going to a Third Party?

calamity

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Ok. With two very unpopular people heading up the two majors, this year's election may be the first in almost fifty years where a Third Party candidate actually wins a state. Not since Wallace won the Deep South has any Third Party player won a state. Before then, an outside challenger winning a few electoral votes was not uncommon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_...ances_in_United_States_presidential_elections

Enter 2016. I suspect we will have at least two states go to someone not named Trump or Hillary, maybe more.

My first choice, and I place this at a near certainty, is Utah. No way will the mostly Mormon state vote for Hillary. And, Trump is absolutely not catching on there at all. So, I say Utah will go Third Party for sure.

Choice two is far less certain, but same rules apply as Utah. Nevada. The difference there though is that, unlike Utah, both Trump or Hillary have a reasonable shot at winning it.

Arizona is next on the list. Same deal less the Mormon thing. Trump and Hillary are both very unpopular in those two states. A guy like Johnson may have a real shot.

Thoughts?
 

azgreg

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I've always been big on someone winning their own state. If their own state won't even vote for them then why should anyone else? I'd like to see how they do in New Mexico and Massachusetts. If they are going to win the presidency the only way they can do it is to deny Hillary 270 electoral votes and then I feel confident that the House would elect Johnson over Trump. They need to win in these two states and they have a lot of work to do in order to do it.
 

calamity

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I've always been big on someone winning their own state. If their own state won't even vote for them then why should anyone else? I'd like to see how they do in New Mexico and Massachusetts. If they are going to win the presidency the only way they can do it is to deny Hillary 270 electoral votes and then I feel confident that the House would elect Johnson over Trump. They need to win in these two states and they have a lot of work to do in order to do it.

270? I'm starting to think Hillary maybe has a shot at 470.

Donald Trump’s Poll Numbers Are Collapsing | Vanity Fair
 
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