• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!
  • Welcome to our archives. No new posts are allowed here.

Where the polls stand pre-First Debate.

BrotherFease

BrotherFease

DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 15, 2019
Messages
5,712
Reaction score
3,808
Location
Western New York
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Moderate
Lots can change over tonight. This is just where we're today. I will do one of these after every presidential debate.

According to RealClearpolitics.com, Biden is favored to score 222 , Trump with 125. Biden needs at least 48 more electoral college votes to win. Trump needs at least 145 more electoral college votes to win.There are 12 swing states and 2 districts in the toss-up category.

In the swing/battleground states, Biden is leading in Nevada (6), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Ohio (18), Penn (20), NH (4), North Carolina (15), Florida (29) and the 2nd District of Maine (1). Trump is leading in Texas (38) and Georgia (16).

RCP has Iowa listed as a tie, but on their no-toss-up map, they have the state going to Trump. They also have the 2nd district of Nebraska going to Biden, even though they have no polling data.

The no toss-up has Biden at 353, Trump at 185.

Per Election Betting Odds, they have Democrats at 290, Republicans at 248. Biden has a projected 55% chance of winning the election.

As you can see, Trump has a lot of ground to make up. Biden needs to maintain and increase his lead.
 
I don’t know about a 55% chance of winning. When you’re still winning without a single swing state, I’d say you have a bit better a chance of winning than a simple coin toss. As it stands, Trump needs to win every single swing state and a state that has Biden leading outside the margin of error. On top of that, you basically have full voter engagement from the left. All of this bodes quite poorly for Trump’s hope of a second term.

As it stands, Trump requires Biden to do more than the odd gaffe to move the needle tonight. The usual stuff isn’t going to cut it.
 
538 has the best polls.

They take like 50 polls and average them. It's like what RottenTomatoes does for movies only with pollsters instead of movie critics.
 
Election Betting Odds is an odd poll that has way too much emotion within it. There are a large number of Democrats that continue to live in fear of either the polls being wrong or Trump figuring out a way to steal the election. That emotion tends to corrupt that poll. In fact, it wasn't that long ago that Election Betting Odds had Trump winning, yet the actual election polls have not changed that much.

Since you want to discuss percentage chances of things, I think FiveThirtyEight is a great starting point. They have Biden as 78% probability of winning heading into the debate. The will give you such odds on every state.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2020 Election Forecast

Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

That all said, why too much is made of the debate. Most current election polls show 92-96% of those polls already decided. While there may be some soft affirmations of a candidate, that really doesn't seem likely. I did see a poll this morning that had only 3% saying the debate would make up their minds.

www.politico.com

Debates don’t matter. Unless someone face-plants.

Make-or-break debates are the exception, not the rule.
www.politico.com www.politico.com

The major problem for Trump is that its a two party race this time. Biden is polling over 50% in many of the races, meaning that Trump has to change minds, not win the undecideds. That is very hard to do when you approval had never been north of 46%, or more importantly your disapproval never below 50%.

Barring some major unforeseen event, this race is pretty much decided.
 
Cardinal said:
I don’t know about a 55% chance of winning. When you’re still winning without a single swing state, I’d say you have a bit better a chance of winning than a simple coin toss. As it stands, Trump needs to win every single swing state and a state that has Biden leading outside the margin of error. On top of that, you basically have full voter engagement from the left. All of this bodes quite poorly for Trump’s hope of a second term.

As it stands, Trump requires Biden to do more than the odd gaffe to move the needle tonight. The usual stuff isn’t going to cut it.
Click to expand...

Regardless of the standard of measurement (betting odds, polling data), Biden is still holding the lead. If Trump performs poorly in the debates and Biden shows he looks presidential, then I don't think anything will change.

I suspect that the non-measurable group will be African American men and women. These are the people who helped to push Doug Jones over the edge in Alabama's special election. Biden promising us the first black woman on the Supreme Court and the first black Vice President, might give Biden a huge edge.
 
BrotherFease said:
Regardless of the standard of measurement (betting odds, polling data), Biden is still holding the lead. If Trump performs poorly in the debates and Biden shows he looks presidential, then I don't think anything will change.

I suspect that the non-measurable group will be African American men and women. These are the people who helped to push Doug Jones over the edge in Alabama's special election. Biden promising us the first black woman on the Supreme Court and the first black Vice President, might give Biden a huge edge.
Click to expand...

Let me be clearer...... the debate really means very little.

The tenor of your post suggests that Biden holds a slight lead and needs some things to break to close the deal. I disagree. This race is pretty decided (Trump has lost - Biden has a substantial lead. He needs to do nothing but refrain from falling on his face) save for a major unforeseen event or deeper corruption of our electoral process than any of us comprehend.
 
swing_voter said:
538 has the best polls.

They take like 50 polls and average them. It's like what RottenTomatoes does for movies only with pollsters instead of movie critics.
Click to expand...
They weight certain polls up, others down. And include polls that come out every day, which in effect weights them 7 times as much as polls which come out once a week.

Biden’s National RCP lead is 6.1.

This includes an ABC poll, which shrinks from +10 to +6 when third party candidates are included.

Substituting in the +6 in place of the +10, since third party candidates will be on the ballot, Biden’s national lead is 5.7.
 
Fool me once.............
 
ReubenSherr said:
They weight certain polls up, others down. And include polls that come out every day, which in effect weights them 7 times as much as polls which come out once a week. Biden’s National RCP lead is 6.1. This includes an ABC poll, which shrinks from +10 to +6 when third party candidates are included. Substituting in the +6 in place of the +10, since third party candidates will be on the ballot, Biden’s national lead is 5.7.
Click to expand...
Third party candidates make a big difference. It is very likely Trump lost 4 million votes to 3rd party candidates Gary Johnson and Evan McMullin. Hillary probably lost half a million to Jill Stein and the better part of a million to Bernie write-in votes. Clinton would still have won the popular vote, but by less than a million.

In 2020, Democrats voting for the Green party is still a big issue. Republicans voting for the Libertarian party, not as much. Three and four way polls will become increasingly common, however this has nothing to do with the debate outcome.
 
BrotherFease said:
Regardless of the standard of measurement (betting odds, polling data), Biden is still holding the lead. If Trump performs poorly in the debates and Biden shows he looks presidential, then I don't think anything will change.

I suspect that the non-measurable group will be African American men and women. These are the people who helped to push Doug Jones over the edge in Alabama's special election. Biden promising us the first black woman on the Supreme Court and the first black Vice President, might give Biden a huge edge.
Click to expand...

Two things are baked into the cake: 1)Trump is a horrible human being, and 2)Biden is a decent guy who's no longer in his prime, and is therefore prone to the occasional gaffe and slip of the memory. As long as both candidates are no worse than these two basic expectations, the needle doesn't move.

Biden is certainly free to promise another African American selection, but I don't think it's required. He's demonstrated his bona fides on this issue adequately.
 
upsideguy said:
Let me be clearer...... the debate really means very little.

The tenor of your post suggests that Biden holds a slight lead and needs some things to break to close the deal. I disagree. This race is pretty decided (Trump has lost - Biden has a substantial lead. He needs to do nothing but refrain from falling on his face) save for a major unforeseen event or deeper corruption of our electoral process than any of us comprehend.
Click to expand...

My position on the 2020 election is this:

1. Biden has been the favorite to win the 2020 election back in April of 2019.
2. Trump's consistent polling of net-negatives puts him at a significant disadvantage. It's highly unlikely, we're going to see his polls magically look normal again.
3. Biden only needs at least 48 more electoral college votes and he's got the win. Even if Trump wins most of the swing states, Biden can still surpass the 270 mark with between 2 to 5 more state wins.
4. As somebody who has studied pretty much every single presidential election in American history, we MIGHT see 1948 all over again. Most likely, it'll be like 2008 or 2012.
5. About 10% of the population makes up their mind officially at the last minute or within days of the election. I suspect the late-breakers are going to favor Biden over Trump.
 
BrotherFease said:
Lots can change over tonight. This is just where we're today. I will do one of these after every presidential debate.

According to RealClearpolitics.com, Biden is favored to score 222 , Trump with 125. Biden needs at least 48 more electoral college votes to win. Trump needs at least 145 more electoral college votes to win.There are 12 swing states and 2 districts in the toss-up category.

In the swing/battleground states, Biden is leading in Nevada (6), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Ohio (18), Penn (20), NH (4), North Carolina (15), Florida (29) and the 2nd District of Maine (1). Trump is leading in Texas (38) and Georgia (16).

RCP has Iowa listed as a tie, but on their no-toss-up map, they have the state going to Trump. They also have the 2nd district of Nebraska going to Biden, even though they have no polling data.

The no toss-up has Biden at 353, Trump at 185.

Per Election Betting Odds, they have Democrats at 290, Republicans at 248. Biden has a projected 55% chance of winning the election.

As you can see, Trump has a lot of ground to make up. Biden needs to maintain and increase his lead.
Click to expand...
538 has Biden's chances much better, with Biden at 78 % and Trump at 22 %. I tend to stick to 538.
 
Cardinal said:
Two things are baked into the cake: 1)Trump is a horrible human being, and 2)Biden is a decent guy who's no longer in his prime, and is therefore prone to the occasional gaffe and slip of the memory. As long as both candidates are no worse than these two basic expectations, the needle doesn't move. Biden is certainly free to promise another African American selection, but I don't think it's required. He's demonstrated his bona fides on this issue adequately.
Click to expand...
I would certainly protest the points you say are baked in, particularly #2, because Biden is not a decent guy. As to who has demonstrated what, Trump has demonstrated the ability to do the job.

BrotherFease said:
My position on the 2020 election is this:

1. Biden has been the favorite to win the 2020 election back in April of 2019.
2. Trump's consistent polling of net-negatives puts him at a significant disadvantage. It's highly unlikely, we're going to see his polls magically look normal again.
3. Biden only needs at least 48 more electoral college votes and he's got the win. Even if Trump wins most of the swing states, Biden can still surpass the 270 mark with between 2 to 5 more state wins.
4. As somebody who has studied pretty much every single presidential election in American history, we MIGHT see 1948 all over again. Most likely, it'll be like 2008 or 2012.
5. About 10% of the population makes up their mind officially at the last minute or within days of the election. I suspect the late-breakers are going to favor Biden over Trump.
Click to expand...
I have seen worse, though each point has obvious problems.

The last point is interesting. In 2016 the late deciding voters went dominantly to Trump.
 
Cardinal said:
Thanks, cimpleman, I forgot that electoral results were determined by people voting.
Click to expand...
Right, and not enough Dems did last time oh wise one.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
ReubenSherr said:
Just so you know, in November 2016, 538 gave Trump a 28% chance of winning the election.
Click to expand...
oh im aware, thanks. WAsh Po has biden up by 9 points in this morning's PA poll, and Quinnipiac has biden up by 3 in Georgia. trump better get his crap together.
 
Trump is scum

And his supporters are worse

I don't see how any rational, intelligent self respecting American could possibly support trump.
 
swing_voter said:
538 has the best polls.

They take like 50 polls and average them. It's like what RottenTomatoes does for movies only with pollsters instead of movie critics.
Click to expand...
I followed them closely (including thier podcast) last round... didn't they have Hillary by like 70+%?
 
PoliSciXtina said:
well dems are scarred from 2016. this time, well be showing up :)
Click to expand...

Frankly I think we're overlearning the lesson a bit, but hey, if that means we swamp the voting booths and hand an indisputable victory to Biden as a result, nothing wrong with that.
 
Schweddy said:
I followed them closely (including thier podcast) last round... didn't they have Hillary by like 70+%?
Click to expand...

70% does not equal 100%.

Not the thread for it, but we need more symbol options in the smilies drop-down menu. Like TM, C (copyright) equals and not-equal signs.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom