When will we develop human-level AI?

[OnionCollection]

I do think that we humans can and will eventually do this (although I take issue with your characterization of people who would do this as "morons"). Really, the neural patterns in a human brain are no fundamentally different from highly complex arrangements of computer circuitry.

Well we don't know that. It will undoubtably be complex beyond belief given that it is the product of evolution. I imagine it might go beyond circuit like connections and utilise all sorts of electromagnetic field effects as well, and who knows what. Any effect in physics could have been incoorperated into it's workings, even effects we don't yet know about. The human brain may not even be a turing machine.

For the question of this thread I say 2200. 2100 at the minimum. There is simply no way it will happen in the next 50 years at least. There has been progress in the AI field in the last 30 years, but this has been towards specific sub-problems like learning algorithms, classifiers, etc, but no clear step towards sentient AI. The main problem is noone knows how to implement human-like AI, even if they had access to computers fast enough.