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Moore's Law is not expected to run out of steam until about 2019, at which time we'll most likely quickly make the switch to three-dimensional chips and organic computing.
We'll have the hardware capability in a desktop computer to match the human brain by about 2020, but we won't instantly have human-level artificial intelligence as a result. It will most likely take longer to develop the software.
How soon do you think we'll have artificial intelligence that is as smart as a human being? How soon do you think it can pass the Turing Test?
I'm inclined to agree with Ray Kurzweil's assessment that there will be dubious claims of computers passing the Turing Test by the early 2020s, and computers will routinely pass the Turing Test by 2029.
We'll have the hardware capability in a desktop computer to match the human brain by about 2020, but we won't instantly have human-level artificial intelligence as a result. It will most likely take longer to develop the software.
How soon do you think we'll have artificial intelligence that is as smart as a human being? How soon do you think it can pass the Turing Test?
I'm inclined to agree with Ray Kurzweil's assessment that there will be dubious claims of computers passing the Turing Test by the early 2020s, and computers will routinely pass the Turing Test by 2029.