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When will Sanders drop out?

When Will Sanders Drop Out?


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Greenbeard

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It isn't assured, California has almost 500 delegates, that's almost twice as big as Clinton's pledged lead.

Clinton's lead is likely, but surely not guaranteed.

Ignoring the fact that Clinton is +9 in the California polling aggregate right now, what pathway to victory do you actually see for Bernie?

Here's a delegate calculator for this race: The Race to 2026 Delegates

Acknowledging that she's about to again have a very good Tuesday, I've taken her edge off by only giving her 51% victories in the four primaries she's clearly going to win (which will understate her delegate pickup, since she's clearly going to do significantly better than that in Maryland at least) and I've given Sanders a 55-45 win in Rhode Island. In every contest after that, I've given Sanders a landslide 60-40 victory. She still wins by 41.

If I put in her current pollster average in Maryland (59.3%) and Pennsylvania (53.5%), she wins by 67. He would need to clear 67-33 in California (not to mention achieve the uninterrupted stream of 20-point wins I already mentioned) to win.
 

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Villiage Idiot
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Ignoring the fact that Clinton is +9 in the California polling aggregate right now, what pathway to victory do you actually see for Bernie?

Here's a delegate calculator for this race: The Race to 2026 Delegates

Acknowledging that she's about to again have a very good Tuesday, I've taken her edge off by only giving her 51% victories in the four primaries she's clearly going to win (which will understate her delegate pickup, since she's clearly going to do significantly better than that in Maryland at least) and I've given Sanders a 55-45 win in Rhode Island. In every contest after that, I've given Sanders a landslide 60-40 victory. She still wins by 41.

If I put in her current pollster average in Maryland (59.3%) and Pennsylvania (53.5%), she wins by 67. He would need to clear 67-33 in California (not to mention achieve the uninterrupted stream of 20-point wins I already mentioned) to win.

There have been several polls a little closer than that, and there are a lot of uncommitteds in California. I think Bernie still has a good chance of winning Cali, although he wont pick up nearly enough delegates to significantly close the gap. Our next POTUS will be Hillary.
 

Greenbeard

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There have been several polls a little closer than that, and there are a lot of uncommitteds in California. I think Bernie still has a good chance of winning Cali, although he wont pick up nearly enough delegates to significantly close the gap. Our next POTUS will be Hillary.

I'm not aware of any polls that have even showed him tied in California, much less winning or getting the 35-point blowout he absolutely needs there.
 

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Villiage Idiot
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I'm not aware of any polls that have even showed him tied in California, much less winning or getting the 35-point blowout he absolutely needs there.

Not tied, but closer than 9 points. There was one released Wends that had Hillary 6 points ahead but 12% uncommitted, and one yesterday with Hillary up 2 points and 6 points uncommitted. It appears to me that Bernie is catching up. But yea, I agree, even if he does win, it may only be by a percent or two, and he won't get the blowout that he needs. He will probably fall even further behind with some of the other northeastern states.
 

Absentglare

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Youre grasping at straws.

Not really, i'm just not preemptively declaring a victor.

Ignoring the fact that Clinton is +9 in the California polling aggregate right now, what pathway to victory do you actually see for Bernie?

Here's a delegate calculator for this race: The Race to 2026 Delegates

Acknowledging that she's about to again have a very good Tuesday, I've taken her edge off by only giving her 51% victories in the four primaries she's clearly going to win (which will understate her delegate pickup, since she's clearly going to do significantly better than that in Maryland at least) and I've given Sanders a 55-45 win in Rhode Island. In every contest after that, I've given Sanders a landslide 60-40 victory. She still wins by 41.

If I put in her current pollster average in Maryland (59.3%) and Pennsylvania (53.5%), she wins by 67. He would need to clear 67-33 in California (not to mention achieve the uninterrupted stream of 20-point wins I already mentioned) to win.

Have you been paying attention? There never was much hope for Sanders.
 

Sherman123

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Not to mention California is a completely different state than New York is.
Gee, imagine that.
:roll:

What margin of victory are you expecting exactly in California? What are you hoping for? Realistically?
 

Lord of Planar

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Given recent events and the likelihood of significant Clinton wins in the upcoming states I thought I'd open a poll for people to place their bets on when Senator Sanders will withdraw from the race.

I think he will wait to California before withdrawing and endorsing Clinton, despite earlier comments about fighting it out on the floor (which isn't really possible) I think he'll do the 'responsible' thing and endorse Clinton just before the convention, similar to what Clinton did when she ran against Obama. Thoughts?

I think the democrats will change the convention rules to insure a Hillary win, and upset several democrats, like when the republicans changed the rules to insure Paul didn't get the nomination.

Both parties are unethical.
 

Greenbeard

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I think the democrats will change the convention rules to insure a Hillary win,

They don't need to change any rules, she's winning handily already.

I have to commend Bernie on this one, I don't know how he's been so successful at advancing the narrative that somehow he's "really" winning but clearly he's been successful at delegitimizing Hillary's win in some quarters.

The reality is that he's been outspending her in 2016 ($122M to her $84M through March) but getting substantially fewer votes than she is (10.5M Hillary to 7.8M Bernie or 57%-43% in her favor).

The only ones talking about convention shenanigans at this point are those running Bernie's campaign (i.e., the folks suggesting, apparently without any sense of irony, that his strategy now hinges on convincing superdelegates to overturn the clear will of the voters).
 

Lord of Planar

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They don't need to change any rules, she's winning handily already.

I have to commend Bernie on this one, I don't know how he's been so successful at advancing the narrative that somehow he's "really" winning but clearly he's been successful at delegitimizing Hillary's win in some quarters.

The reality is that he's been outspending her in 2016 ($122M to her $84M through March) but getting substantially fewer votes than she is (10.5M Hillary to 7.8M Bernie or 57%-43% in her favor).

The only ones talking about convention shenanigans at this point are those running Bernie's campaign (i.e., the folks suggesting, apparently without any sense of irony, that his strategy now hinges on convincing superdelegates to overturn the clear will of the voters).

Still, delegate results are not final until the convention. With your thinking, why did the republicans change the rules for their convention?
 

Greenbeard

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Still, delegate results are not final until the convention. With your thinking, why did the republicans change the rules for their convention?

The self-immolation of the Republican Party has no bearing on the Democratic nominating process. Which, again, Bernie Sanders is not secretly winning.
 

Sherman123

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I think the democrats will change the convention rules to insure a Hillary win, and upset several democrats, like when the republicans changed the rules to insure Paul didn't get the nomination.

Both parties are unethical.

Why would they need to do that? If she has a majority of pledged delegates and votes wouldn't this just be a mirror of the 2008 primary?
 

Lord of Planar

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The self-immolation of the Republican Party has no bearing on the Democratic nominating process. Which, again, Bernie Sanders is not secretly winning.

LOL...

The two parties are far more similar than you realize!

They are for themselves, for gaining money and power. They are not for us common people.

They are both lower than pond scum.
 

Lord of Planar

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Why would they need to do that? If she has a majority of pledged delegates and votes wouldn't this just be a mirror of the 2008 primary?

Same applies to the 2012 elections, but they changed the convention rules to insure Paul wouldn't get the nomination.
 

Sherman123

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jkennedy

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Why would they need to do that? If she has a majority of pledged delegates and votes wouldn't this just be a mirror of the 2008 primary?


Agreed. There is no need for Democrats to change any rules. Hillary has it wrapped up.

Further, by not changing the rules the Democrats accent how Republicans are changing the rules to deny the will of their constituents.
 

Sherman123

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I think if he is crushed in these upcoming primaries there is a chance he will begin to change his tone. I think you can already see a discernable shift on how he talks about the race and about Clinton.
 
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