When do most people make up their mind about who they will vote for in midterm elections?

[PoliSciPulse]

In my research, I have discovered tangential evidence that most elections are won within two months of the general election. This includes swing states and others based on a prediction I did in 2018 (Where I got 93% of the races at the federal level correct). But there are a handful of candidates who defied this trend. When do you think most people make up their mind about who they are going to vote for in the general election phase in midterm elections in the United States?

 

[Phys251]

In my research, I have discovered tangential evidence that most elections are won within two months of the general election. This includes swing states and others based on a prediction I did in 2018 (Where I got 93% of the races at the federal level correct). But there are a handful of candidates who defied this trend. When do you think most people make up their mind about who they are going to vote for in the general election phase in midterm elections in the United States?

I think a few people did tonight.

 

[Tender Branson]

Most do after summer, or after Labour Day (which is in September).

 

[PoliSciPulse]

Most do after summer, or after Labour Day (which is in September).

I found this to be true in 93% of cases, both in swing and in Republican and Democratic strongholds. I have a list of people who defied this trend though. Any idea why they may have? Some were swing districts and others were not.

 

[phoenix2020]

I found this to be true in 93% of cases, both in swing and in Republican and Democratic strongholds. I have a list of people who defied this trend though. Any idea why they may have? Some were swing districts and others were not.

Good question. Since you have a list of such people, have you considered talking to them and asking them this question? If not, why not?

 

[PoliSciPulse]

I'm sorry. I mean a list of politicians where its looks like the outcome was determined before September. My apologies.

 

[jamesrage]

In my research, I have discovered tangential evidence that most elections are won within two months of the general election. This includes swing states and others based on a prediction I did in 2018 (Where I got 93% of the races at the federal level correct). But there are a handful of candidates who defied this trend. When do you think most people make up their mind about who they are going to vote for in the general election phase in midterm elections in the United States?

Most voters are ignorant as **** when it comes to politics. So of course they will only know within a few months who they are going to vote for. Intelligent voters who are for issues A,B, and C will vote for the candidate or party who is generally for issues A,B, and C before the midterm even started. While intellegent voters who are for issues X,Y and Z will vote for the candidate or party is who for issues X,Y and Z before the midterm even started.