What your latest take on the 2022 economy? (1 Viewer)

[Jkca1]

Some of you must be investors. How do you see the year ending? I expect the Ukraine war to be over before the end of April. From that point on we will have a return toward normalcy and the market should become more bullish. Inflation is a danger, but we all know we aren't going to beat it by putting cash into a CD.

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

Some of you must be investors. How do you see the year ending? I expect the Ukraine war to be over before the end of April. From that point on we will have a return toward normalcy and the market should become more bullish. Inflation is a danger, but we all know we aren't going to beat it by putting cash into a CD.

Tell ya the truth: NO CLUE.

I wish I knew. I'm heavily invested in cash....which I know is bad. But scared of losing if I buy in. I know that gold is a crappy investment, but I probably won't lose any money and maybe over time it would keep up with inflation? I have no idea, wish I knew more about it. I pretty much think I know that the DOW is only going to gain over time. But how much? And how much time? I'm not looking 40 years down the road, but 5-10 years for now.
Suggestions?

 

[MamboDervish]

Some of you must be investors. How do you see the year ending? I expect the Ukraine war to be over before the end of April. From that point on we will have a return toward normalcy and the market should become more bullish. Inflation is a danger, but we all know we aren't going to beat it by putting cash into a CD.

All things considered, I'm surprised at the resiliency of the markets. I would have expected some more substantial declines by now, but I'm still expecting bear markets ahead in the short term.

Once the US started supplying shoulder launched anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to Afghanistan - 1986 - it took three years before the Russians realized that it was too costly to remain. Ukrainians being a Slavic people, I suspect Putin has a little more resolve than that, and if he isn't removed from power by other means, he's likely to continue his occupation into 2026 before his regime totally collapses.

While it's nice to be optimistic in the short term, I see things all globally getting much worse before they get better.

 

[phoenix2020]

I think the overall economy is on sound footing, however I am concerned that there is a housing bubble that will burst sometime this year.

 

[Ahlevah]

Some of you must be investors. How do you see the year ending? I expect the Ukraine war to be over before the end of April. From that point on we will have a return toward normalcy and the market should become more bullish. Inflation is a danger, but we all know we aren't going to beat it by putting cash into a CD.

I think we'll be fine. I'm staying in the market, but, by and large, sticking with quality, dividend-paying, large-cap domestic stocks. Going by history, if I miss the four best-performing days in a year I'll reduce my returns by half. Chicken Littles are freaking out due to Fed tightening, but over the course of 12 Fed tightening cycles going back to the 1950s the market's still gone up an average of 9% per year. I'll take that.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...cally-deliver-strong-gains-in-fed-hike-cycles

 

[Cynical]

Some of you must be investors. How do you see the year ending? I expect the Ukraine war to be over before the end of April. From that point on we will have a return toward normalcy and the market should become more bullish. Inflation is a danger, but we all know we aren't going to beat it by putting cash into a CD.

Assuming that the war in Ukraine doesn't escalate out of control, then the biggest concern is inflation and whether that moves us into a recession. It's a tricky time economically, there are a number of head winds that could shake things up.

 

[Ahlevah]

Noticed an article that Robinhood is laying off 9% of its workforce. Looks like retail playtime in meme stocks is over. Seeing more and more “YOLO” Hail Marys and sob stories on Reddit. Just wait until we have a real bear market. For me, I have my allocation strategy, so I’ve been buying in this selloff.

 

[Cynical]

Noticed an article that Robinhood is laying off 9% of its workforce. Looks like retail playtime in meme stocks is over. Seeing more and more “YOLO” Hail Marys and sob stories on Reddit. Just wait until we have a real bear market. For me, I have my allocation strategy, so I’ve been buying in this selloff.

There's clearly a number of red flags that are spooking the Market. Likely a bit more selling is ahead.

 

[Ahlevah]

There's clearly a number of red flags that are spooking the Market. Likely a bit more selling is ahead.

Probably more than a bit. Retail investors are just starting to sell. A lot of stocks, especially in tech, have P/Es that aren’t supported with higher rates of inflation, and I think those are being adjusted downward. The fact that the Fed is removing the punch bowl isn’t helping. And if a company is losing money, with losses projected out for years to come, you can forgitaboutit.

 

[Jkca1]

The bottom fell out today. Fortunately for me I sold almost everything during JP's speech yesterday. Some times you guess right....

 

[HikerGuy83]

Biden is really screwing things up.

And somehow claiming all is great.

 

[PeteEU]

Biden is really screwing things up.

And somehow claiming all is great.

How is Biden screwing things up? Just curious because I have heard that a lot from the right, bit without any real evidence.

 

[HikerGuy83]

How is Biden screwing things up? Just curious because I have heard that a lot from the right, bit without any real evidence.

Haven't been to the store lately ?

 

[longview]

Haven't been to the store lately ?

We have been having inflation for several years, but it recently got so bad that the Government had to admit it
was happening.

 

[PeteEU]

Haven't been to the store lately ?

How on earth is it the fault of Biden that there has been a global pandemic and supply crisis, plus what is happening in Ukraine?

If anything prices have been kept artificially low the last couple of decades and that is now biting us all in the ass.

 

[HikerGuy83]

How on earth is it the fault of Biden that there has been a global pandemic and supply crisis, plus what is happening in Ukraine?

If anything prices have been kept artificially low the last couple of decades and that is now biting us all in the ass.

Biden is the president.

Our culture is one that says whoever is in the WH gets the credit or blame.

So he gets the blame.

Besides, he instills zero confidence in anyone with half or more of a brain.

 

[mike2810]

Haven't been to the store lately ?

That is not an answer.
How is Biden screwing things up.?

 

[Credence]

Haven't been to the store lately ?

Pandemic, supply chain, war in Ukraine -- not Biden. It is a GLOBAL issue

And we won't get into someone's brain. The former guy already has dibs on that one

 

[PeteEU]

Biden is the president.

Our culture is one that says whoever is in the WH gets the credit or blame.

So he gets the blame.

Besides, he instills zero confidence in anyone with half or more of a brain.

AHH so we are discussing at low a bar...below the sewer basically.

Guessing if you get a ingrown toenail, then that is his fault as well?

I am all for blaming a President..but it has to be on merit and current inflation has been coming long before Biden, Trump, Obama and even Bush Jr.

 

[HikerGuy83]

AHH so we are discussing at low a bar...below the sewer basically.

Guessing if you get a ingrown toenail, then that is his fault as well?

I am all for blaming a President..but it has to be on merit and current inflation has been coming long before Biden, Trump, Obama and even Bush Jr.

Biden is a leadership train wreck.

What's worse is that people are praying for his health because the next in line is an even bigger more incompetent moron.

Carter was a nice guy. Wasn't a great leader.

Biden isn't even a nice guy.

 

[PeteEU]

Biden is a leadership train wreck.

What's worse is that people are praying for his health because the next in line is an even bigger more incompetent moron.

Carter was a nice guy. Wasn't a great leader.

Biden isn't even a nice guy.

Let me guess... you think that Trump's leadership was great right? That would explain everything about your view of Biden and Harris.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Let me guess... you think that Trump's leadership was great right? That would explain everything about your view of Biden and Harris.

Why would you guess that ?

What have I said that would possibly give you any reason to believe that ?

Please point it out specifically.

Your logic in your second statement does not follow at all. It would explain nothing.

 

[rickc]

Some of you must be investors. How do you see the year ending? I expect the Ukraine war to be over before the end of April. From that point on we will have a return toward normalcy and the market should become more bullish. Inflation is a danger, but we all know we aren't going to beat it by putting cash into a CD.

Personally I don't think Ukraine has any real impact on the US economy. Might be being used by the multinationals as an excuse to raise prices but since their profits are the highest in 70 years they aren't hurting.

Now the federal reserve is determined to cool off this economy. They will kill the inflation. Unfortunately they will put us into a recession doing it. That is what the stock market is reacting to. It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. Home builders are going to get killed. 6% mortgages will do that. Boats and recreational vehicles in the same boat. The days of 0% financing is over.

The difference for most between a bad economy and a depression is having a job. If it gets bad enough where companies start layoffs that when you will hear the screaming. Inflation or recession. You choose.