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What would happen if the Fed forgave U.S. Treasury Debt?

Rhapsody1447

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I've seen very little research on this and I'm curious to hear people's thoughts.

Currently the Federal Reserve holds $1,667.63 Billion in U.S. Treasury securities. What would happen if they forgave it?

What would happen to the dollar? What would happen to the real economy? What would happen to interest rates? How would this effect new Treasury debt issuance? How would foreign bondholders react?

If anyone has any thoughts or research on this subject, please share.
 
This is a fun question.

I believe it would have virtually no impact. The buying of the bonds was intended to increase the money supply and effect short term credit. The fact the Fed owns the bonds is just an accounting gimmick. I guess it would turn an implicit increase in the money supply into an increase in the money supply...I don't see where it would have a large impact though.
 
I've seen very little research on this and I'm curious to hear people's thoughts.

Currently the Federal Reserve holds $1,667.63 Billion in U.S. Treasury securities. What would happen if they forgave it?

What would happen to the dollar? What would happen to the real economy? What would happen to interest rates? How would this effect new Treasury debt issuance? How would foreign bondholders react?

If anyone has any thoughts or research on this subject, please share.

IMO, forgiving all of their federal debt would flatten out the long end of the yield curve on a short interim, discrete basis. Reason being, the long term probability of default diminishes as the aggregate amount of outstanding federal debt decreases. After markets switch from reactionary mode, digestion of this new information could go in a plethora of directions. It will have a single guaranteed result, the Fed will lose a great deal of its ammunition necessary to combat potential future inflationary pressures.

I like the "out of the box" line of thought though. My personal preference for additional monetary stimulus is a hybrid of what the BOJ and the BOE have both talked about and are implementing. Allow the Fed to issue "put" on equity valuations of the financial sector (think perfered stock purchases of BOA, C, etc... for something like 50% more than their book value for an "extended period") as a means to stabilize shareholder confidence so that their lending facilities are more willing to provide loans to small businesses. Then they create one-time consumption vouchers of say $2,000 and issue them to every U.S. citizen in the country. Vouchers of this nature would be redeemable in cash (or deposit) at any member bank.

Such an unconventional policy would help lenders take their foot of the brake in regards to lending to small business, and provide a boost in consumption necessary to stimulate greater private sector expansion (investment!). The interesting thing about this idea is that it does not suffer from the drawbacks in providing tax rebates, where instances of citizens saving their rebates causes short term debt increases without increases in economic activity.
 
Kush you are way above my level, but I do have a comment to add.

Part of the purpose that we have the fed is to have a mechanism to create new money and the fed purchasing securities is the mechanism that the fed uses to inject money into our economy. As long as the treasury owes the fed, the fed can use that debt as a tool to fight inflation. At any time it can stop purchasing debt and as the treasury or even banks pay back their loans and as securities mature, the fed can simply disappear that money just like it created it, and thus reduce the amount of money in circulation to fight inflation.
 
I've wondered this myself - but, as has been brought up by the other two posters, it would have to occur, I think, in tandem with changes that would reduce the need for a Fed purchasing massive amounts of Treasuries going forward.
 
Wouldn't that be akin to having almost $2 trillion in new money enter the system? Yikes. I couldn't imagine the price inflation and Cantillon Effects in capital markets.
 
I've seen very little research on this and I'm curious to hear people's thoughts.

Currently the Federal Reserve holds $1,667.63 Billion in U.S. Treasury securities. What would happen if they forgave it?

What would happen to the dollar? What would happen to the real economy? What would happen to interest rates? How would this effect new Treasury debt issuance? How would foreign bondholders react?

If anyone has any thoughts or research on this subject, please share.

I have no idea how they could loan themselves money in the first place.

Wouldn't that be akin to having almost $2 trillion in new money enter the system? Yikes. I couldn't imagine the price inflation and Cantillon Effects in capital markets.

*shrugs*

Does anyone know?
 
One immediate effect would be the reduction in the Feds net worth to a significant negative value. Currently, the "net worth" of the Fed is somewhat in excess of $100 billion, IIRC. Forgiving over 1trillion in debt would certainly destroy that, many times over.

Of course, the Board of Governors is a department of the US gov't, so perhaps the better question is, would it matter?
 
Wouldn't that be akin to having almost $2 trillion in new money enter the system? Yikes. I couldn't imagine the price inflation and Cantillon Effects in capital markets.

I don't think that would happen. Inflation can only occur if there is too much money chasing too few goods. Or at least that is what my economics professor told me 25 years ago.

A canceling of already existing debt would not cause a reduction in the quantity of goods being produce or a increase in spending by consumers so I don't think it would have any effect.
 
The OP An interesting question, but why not take it a step further to get a feel for how it would work.. or why it wouldn't.
In two-sided trades I always look at ie, how I'll do if the stock: Stays the same, goes up 30%, goes down 30%.
Or in other matters of logic, look at the extreme polar cases.
So why not ask the question why doesn't the Fed just by all of most our debt and then just forgive it. Presto.
Or just buy every penny of newly issued treasury debt and forgive it instantly?
It's Tantamount/Is just printing money and there is another side to the balance sheet.
Or the Fed goes broke from credits it issued to 3rd parties it bought the securities from... and the government re-funds it with.. new money.

But the Fed also can make a profit. The T-bonds it bought with the first QE, and second for that matter, are all accumulating interest and in fact profitable trades because rates have fallen/bonds risen even further due to International uncertainty/even worse currencies.
So the Fed will probably hope to unwind the trades at some point. They've done it in the past.

Of course, unwind is probably nowhere soon this time as this is no mere recession. He's trying to keep the system flush with cash so it gets no worse. And he's been succeeding to some degree. It's more likely IMO he'll expand the balance sheet further.
All/any good numbers we see coming out on the economy have all been bouyed by this Fed credit/virtual cash. Were it not for those injections we would have been seeing completely negative numbers the last few years with not even the little recovery we've had. Forget Obama, Forget congress, it's the Fed keeping the economy alive.
We barely avoided another 1929, Bernanke is trying to avoid the dead decade that followed.
His ultimate success remains a question.

Some technical:
Where Did the Federal Reserve Get All that Money? - New Economic PerspectivesNew Economic Perspectives

The Federal Reserve, like any bank, can acquire an asset simply by crediting a bank account. In other words, the bank pays by creating money. As Alan Greenspan explained, the Fed has an unlimited capacity to spend in US dollars. It can pay trillions of dollars with a single keystroke. Here is Chairman Bernanke (Readers can follow is presentation beginning on page 17):

Now, you might ask the question, well, the Fed is going out and buying 2 trillion dollars of securities – how did we pay for that? And the answer is that we paid for those securities by crediting the bank accounts of the people who sold them to us, and those accounts, at the banks, showed up as reserves that the banks would hold with the Fed. So the Fed is a bank for the banks. Banks can hold deposit accounts with the Fed, essentially, and those are called reserve accounts. And so as the purchases of securities occurred, the way we paid for them was basically by increasing the amount of reserves that banks had in their accounts with the Fed.

So you can see this, here, this is the liabilities side of the Fed’s balance sheet. Of course, assets and liabilities (including capital) have to be equal. So the liabilities side had also to rise near 3 trillion dollars, as you can see.

Now, take a look first, as you look at this, take a look first at the light blue line at the bottom. The light blue line at the bottom is currency – Federal Reserve notes in circulation. Sometimes you hear that the Fed is printing money in order to pay for the securities we acquire. And I’ve talked about that in some, you know, in giving some conceptual examples. But as a literal fact, the Fed is not printing money to acquire these securities, and you can see it from the balance sheet here, the light blue line is basically flat. The amount of currency in circulation has not been affected by these activities.

What has been affected is the purple area. Those are reserve balances. Those are that accounts that banks, commercial banks, hold with the Fed, and they are assets of the banking system and they are liabilities of the Fed, and that’s basically how we paid for those securities. And so, the banking system has a large quantity of these reserves, but they are electronic entries at the Fed. They basically just sit there. They’re not in circulation. They’re not part of any broad measure of the money supply. They’re part of what’s called the monetary base, but again, they’re not, they certainly aren’t cash.[.......]​
 
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I've seen very little research on this and I'm curious to hear people's thoughts.

Currently the Federal Reserve holds $1,667.63 Billion in U.S. Treasury securities. What would happen if they forgave it?

What would happen to the dollar? What would happen to the real economy? What would happen to interest rates? How would this effect new Treasury debt issuance? How would foreign bondholders react?

If anyone has any thoughts or research on this subject, please share.

This doesn't answer your question, but it is telling about the people who run the country. I asked your exact question to Dick Morris who was speaking at fund raiser. He told me I was uninformed. He said the Federal Reserve doesn't own any treasuries. I asked him to repeat himself because I thought I must have misunderstood his answer.

That is telling about the people who run this country. What is telling about people who live here is that no one laughed at him.

No impact.
 
One immediate effect would be the reduction in the Feds net worth to a significant negative value. Currently, the "net worth" of the Fed is somewhat in excess of $100 billion, IIRC. Forgiving over 1trillion in debt would certainly destroy that, many times over.

Of course, the Board of Governors is a department of the US gov't, so perhaps the better question is, would it matter?
This^^^^

"The Fed can't do that without affecting its balance sheet. It's very conservative about that. A better solution is minting a $60 T Platinum coin to fill up the public purse. It's perfectly legal, and all the debt could be paid off without increasing taxes or getting tax revenues to exceed spending, a course of action which would sink the non-Government sector. See: End the Austerity War Against the People: Mint the Platinum Coin! | Corrente This is the best course of action! It only requires a decision by the President and debt, deficit, and false ratio issues are gone for at least a generation."
 
This doesn't answer your question, but it is telling about the people who run the country. I asked your exact question to Dick Morris who was speaking at fund raiser. He told me I was uninformed. He said the Federal Reserve doesn't own any treasuries. I asked him to repeat himself because I thought I must have misunderstood his answer.

That is telling about the people who run this country. What is telling about people who live here is that no one laughed at him.

No impact.

To the best of my knowlege, Dick Morris hasn't "ran" the country in many years. He's just a turncoat pundant.
 
This^^^^

"The Fed can't do that without affecting its balance sheet. It's very conservative about that. A better solution is minting a $60 T Platinum coin to fill up the public purse. It's perfectly legal, and all the debt could be paid off without increasing taxes or getting tax revenues to exceed spending, a course of action which would sink the non-Government sector. See: End the Austerity War Against the People: Mint the Platinum Coin! | Corrente This is the best course of action! It only requires a decision by the President and debt, deficit, and false ratio issues are gone for at least a generation."

JP, I realize that I am not as sophisticated as many on this forum, but it just seems that a lot of this fancy finance stuff us a bunch of mumbo jumbo which has no real effect in the lives of most Americans. I don't think that it particularlly matters if 60 trillion dollars is magically created today, or if it is created gradually over the next 18 year. Suddenly producing an extra $60 trillion and holding it to pay future expenditures does nothing as it would have been created over a period of years anyway on an as needed bases.
 
To the best of my knowlege, Dick Morris hasn't "ran" the country in many years. He's just a turncoat pundant.

Don't underestimate him or those pundants like him. There are a lot of people who follow him and people like him. Those pundants are just waiting to trade that influence for power in DC. The hooker business certainly keeps him at more than arms reach, but don't kid yourself about his desire to return. One day, a Romney or someone like that will need the influence of someone like Dick Morris. That guy doesn't trade the fund raiser circuit for the cause.
 
Is the FED borrowing on it's own future higher interest rates? That's how they're doing it?
 
JP, I realize that I am not as sophisticated as many on this forum, but it just seems that a lot of this fancy finance stuff us a bunch of mumbo jumbo which has no real effect in the lives of most Americans. I don't think that it particularlly matters if 60 trillion dollars is magically created today, or if it is created gradually over the next 18 year. Suddenly producing an extra $60 trillion and holding it to pay future expenditures does nothing as it would have been created over a period of years anyway on an as needed bases.
Read the link :).

It has political purposes to it.
 
If the FRB forgave all US Treasury debt, who will bail out the FRB? How would you liquidate treasury debt?
 
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I don't think that would happen. Inflation can only occur if there is too much money chasing too few goods. Or at least that is what my economics professor told me 25 years ago.

A canceling of already existing debt would not cause a reduction in the quantity of goods being produce or a increase in spending by consumers so I don't think it would have any effect.

So you think the government would do nothing in response to having its debt cancelled?
 
If the FRB forgave all US Treasury debt, who will bail out the FRB? How would you liquidate treasury debt?

Why would it need to be bailed out?
 
So you think the government would do nothing in response to having its debt cancelled?

Yup.

I would suggest that the gov would just borrow more from the fed, but they are going to continue to do that until inflation exceeds 5%-6% or so anyway.
 
Because it would be bankrupt. After all it is a bank not part of the government.

But it's not a business. It's in control of the money supply. There is no way for it to go "out of business", so to speak.
 
Yup.

I would suggest that the gov would just borrow more from the fed, but they are going to continue to do that until inflation exceeds 5%-6% or so anyway.

Real inflation is already there, at least according to John Williams.
 
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