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What would be considered a Libertarian Party "victory" in November?
"Victory" not necessarily being literal, as in winning the White House (though I'm going to include that as a poll option anyway), but being a major step forward and something to legitimately build on.
Considering no Libertarian Party candidate has ever received as much as one percent of the total vote in its long history, cracking that barrier would be a major step forward. But let's be honest here. The only reason Johnson is at 9% in the polls according to the RCP averages is his last name is not Trump or Clinton.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein
When 57% of all Americans dislike Clinton, according to Economist/Yougov and Bloomberg polls and the same polls show 63% of all Americans dislike Trump. That is a whole bunch of dislikes for a third party candidate to take advantage of. If this election was more of a normal one, if the two candidates were not Trump and Clinton or if one party or the other had offered up a decent candidate, no one would be worried about the Libertarian Party. They would get close to their normal one percent.
I don't see where getting five percent, ten percent in this environment is something or anything to build on. All that would mean is enough voters were thoroughly disgusted with the choice of Trump and Clinton they voted for someone else, anyone else. Look at this way, we haven't had a presidential race where a candidate didn't have an approval rating of 50% or higher since 1992 when the first Bush, G.H.W. Bush set the all time low for a presidential candidate at 46%. That record will be smashed by both these candidates. According to Gallup Clinton is at 38% approval and Trump at 32%. Not much love there.
The bottom line is the Libertarian Party needs to start getting people elected at the state and local levels if it ever hopes to become more than an asterisk on the national political scene.