What the GOP in Congress truly fear more than Trump

[haymarket]

When I watch my usual several hours of cable news on sources like MSNBC and CNN, a favorite topic is the asking of a question.....

it goes something like this: what will it take for the GOP leaders in Congress to finally put their foot down and say they have broken with Trump?

Other versions speculate on just what outrageous thing Trump would have to do to finally irritate McConnell and company so much that they throw in the towel on the guy.

I have the answer: there is nothing Trump can do that will cause them to break publicly with him. Nothing.

Imagine if you will that the prostitution urination tape is real and it eventually comes out. What we would hear is that this happened before Trump was President and while it is disgusting - it is not relevant to his presidency or his policies.

Imagine that the Mueller report clearly and conclusively demonstrates a long financial history between Trump and Russians and provides a mountain of material that Russia regarding Trump as an asset and that is why they supported him and colluded with his campaign. What we would hear is that the crime is the Russians and some who were in his campaign and not on Trump himself and is thus irrelevant.

The worst thing imaginable that are now on the horizon would fail to cause the GOP in congress to desert him. There is no possible scenario that would result in 34 or more GOP Senators to vote to convict Trump in an impeachment trial no matter what Trump did or what the mountain of evidence against him says. They simply will not do it.

And here is the reason why.

What the GOP leaders fear most of all is NOT Trump tanking in the pubic approval ratings and losing an epic landslide in 2020. Even if they could be convinced that is what will happen and not only Trump but many of them will be shown the door by the American people, it would not change them or their behavior.

What they fear is turning on Trump before the election would force tens of millions of Trump supporters to forge a serious breach in the Republican Party which would result in a split much like the party saw in 1912 where the party split in two and then lost. What they fear is that such a split could destroy the party as they know it and means more to them than anything else in their view.

In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt split the party when they would not give him their nomination. He campaigned on a third party and actually won some states but both he and the GOP nominee Taft lost. The Democrat Wilson won.

The Republican Party was spared the schism that beset the Whigs in the 1850's when TR showed little lasting enthusiasm for building a viable third party and went his separate way. The Republicans magically dodged a bullet and survived intact despite the disastrous 1912 election.

But Trump is not the statesman TR was and everybody knows it. And Trump - who has bounced between the parties and owes nothing to the Republican establishment - just might be a vengeful SOB who wants his revenge if he blames the party regulars for turning on him. And that is what the GOP is afraid of and why they continue to support him and will continue to support him. They do not want to try and dodge any bullets in the near future.

Keep in mind that in 1964 the Republicans went with Barry Goldwater and were demolished from coast to coast. The same thing happened to the Democrats in 1972 with George McGovern. Both amazingly, the party center held and the GOP won four years later in 68 with Nixon and the Dems won four years after their disaster with Carter in 76. The party held together and regrouped and out of the ashes rose a phoenix of sorts.

That is what occupies the thinking of the GOP leaders.

 

[Amelia]

That's a pretty big picture theory.

Could be right. Or could be they're each worrying about their own trees, not that forest.

They have seen a person vote how Trump said to vote and then Trump changed his mind on the matter and used that person's vote against him when endorsing the person's primary opponent.

They don't want to be primaried by Trump's fervent base.



The fact that turning on Trump would help Democratic prospects overall, not the GOP, not in the short run anyway, would be an extra factor adding to their individual self-protection mode. "Don't rock the boat even if, or especially if, Queeg is the captain.

 

[Mycroft]

When I watch my usual several hours of cable news on sources like MSNBC and CNN, a favorite topic is the asking of a question.....

it goes something like this: what will it take for the GOP leaders in Congress to finally put their foot down and say they have broken with Trump?

Other versions speculate on just what outrageous thing Trump would have to do to finally irritate McConnell and company so much that they throw in the towel on the guy.

I have the answer: there is nothing Trump can do that will cause them to break publicly with him. Nothing.

Imagine if you will that the prostitution urination tape is real and it eventually comes out. What we would hear is that this happened before Trump was President and while it is disgusting - it is not relevant to his presidency or his policies.

Imagine that the Mueller report clearly and conclusively demonstrates a long financial history between Trump and Russians and provides a mountain of material that Russia regarding Trump as an asset and that is why they supported him and colluded with his campaign. What we would hear is that the crime is the Russians and some who were in his campaign and not on Trump himself and is thus irrelevant.

The worst thing imaginable that are now on the horizon would fail to cause the GOP in congress to desert him. There is no possible scenario that would result in 34 or more GOP Senators to vote to convict Trump in an impeachment trial no matter what Trump did or what the mountain of evidence against him says. They simply will not do it.

And here is the reason why.

What the GOP leaders fear most of all is NOT Trump tanking in the pubic approval ratings and losing an epic landslide in 2020. Even if they could be convinced that is what will happen and not only Trump but many of them will be shown the door by the American people, it would not change them or their behavior.

What they fear is turning on Trump before the election would force tens of millions of Trump supporters to forge a serious breach in the Republican Party which would result in a split much like the party saw in 1912 where the party split in two and then lost. What they fear is that such a split could destroy the party as they know it and means more to them than anything else in their view.

In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt split the party when they would not give him their nomination. He campaigned on a third party and actually won some states but both he and the GOP nominee Taft lost. The Democrat Wilson won.

The Republican Party was spared the schism that beset the Whigs in the 1850's when TR showed little lasting enthusiasm for building a viable third party and went his separate way. The Republicans magically dodged a bullet and survived intact despite the disastrous 1912 election.

But Trump is not the statesman TR was and everybody knows it. And Trump - who has bounced between the parties and owes nothing to the Republican establishment - just might be a vengeful SOB who wants his revenge if he blames the party regulars for turning on him. And that is what the GOP is afraid of and why they continue to support him and will continue to support him. They do not want to try and dodge any bullets in the near future.

Keep in mind that in 1964 the Republicans went with Barry Goldwater and were demolished from coast to coast. The same thing happened to the Democrats in 1972 with George McGovern. Both amazingly, the party center held and the GOP won four years later in 68 with Nixon and the Dems won four years after their disaster with Carter in 76. The party held together and regrouped and out of the ashes rose a phoenix of sorts.

That is what occupies the thinking of the GOP leaders.

So...the bottom line is this: It sucks to be a Trump hater. You won't get what you want.

Moving on...

 

[Pedestrian]

Excellent post and reply. I do however see a very parsed, anemic repub party in the future in any case.

The problem is the historical reputation of the GOP. This started with Nixon and his law & order, southern strategy

of divide and conquer using the so-called silent majority. That period had racists dems (dixiecrats) going over to the

GOP (starting in 1948) from seeing the rise in the civil rights movement. The boll weevil democrats were similar (racists) conservatives.

But the main underlying political base was strong on defense during the cold war but also the social theme was an undying

creed of good moral and family values then being upset they claimed by civil rights, then the hippies, faggots and blacks. (minorities)


What I feel could happen is that with trump, the party now has relinquished that social compact. The GOP can no longer claim that

hi-ground of such superior morality in the face of the single most immoral pres. ever.


The GOP should be made to pay an even bigger price than what it will 'cost' from the so-called Freedom Party operating under

the GOP banner. With maybe a few million behind them, they may succeed in dividing the GOP but I doubt it.

However, what has also happened in addition to the house route in 11/18, is that starting from when trump was nominated summer of '16,

26,000 women alone have registered to run for office and all democrats (some were elected this year) and that movement continues

If this grows and bears fruit, it is possible that from 2020 on, the country may well never see any republican majority at the national level ever again.

 

[haymarket]

So...the bottom line is this: It sucks to be a Trump hater. You won't get what you want.

Moving on...

That response makes no sense as a rational reply to the post I wrote and you pretended to be replying to.

 

[haymarket]

That's a pretty big picture theory.

Could be right. Or could be they're each worrying about their own trees, not that forest.

They have seen a person vote how Trump said to vote and then Trump changed his mind on the matter and used that person's vote against him when endorsing the person's primary opponent.

They don't want to be primaried by Trump's fervent base.



The fact that turning on Trump would help Democratic prospects overall, not the GOP, not in the short run anyway, would be an extra factor adding to their individual self-protection mode. "Don't rock the boat even if, or especially if, Queeg is the captain.

I do agree that personal self interest in terms of saving ones own ass is a politicians highest goal. Self Preservation and all.

What about those Senators just elected in 2018 who do not have to worry about such matters for another six years? Don't they have a freedom and license here that House members do not enjoy? But they seem to act all the same.

 

[Mycroft]

That response makes no sense as a rational reply to the post I wrote and you pretended to be replying to.

Sure it does.

You, a Trump hater, are grousing about the GOP putting up with Trump because they are the only thing standing in the way of you getting what you want: Getting rid of Trump.

Sucks, doesn't it?

 

[haymarket]

Sure it does.

You, a Trump hater, are grousing about the GOP putting up with Trump because they are the only thing standing in the way of you getting what you want: Getting rid of Trump.

Sucks, doesn't it?

No - it makes no sense as a reply to the post I wrote.

 

[Athanasius68]

Its certainly true the GOP leadership often plays "defense" in their various times of Congressional leadership (eg. They didnt dump Ryan as speaker when he announced a year ago that he planned to retire at the end of the term). Trump refuses to do so, which is why he won the nomination.

 

[Athanasius68]

Excellent post and reply. I do however see a very parsed, anemic repub party in the future in any case.

The problem is the historical reputation of the GOP. This started with Nixon and his law & order, southern strategy

of divide and conquer using the so-called silent majority. That period had racists dems (dixiecrats) going over to the

GOP (starting in 1948) from seeing the rise in the civil rights movement. The boll weevil democrats were similar (racists) conservatives.

But the main underlying political base was strong on defense during the cold war but also the social theme was an undying

creed of good moral and family values then being upset they claimed by civil rights, then the hippies, faggots and blacks. (minorities)


What I feel could happen is that with trump, the party now has relinquished that social compact. The GOP can no longer claim that

hi-ground of such superior morality in the face of the single most immoral pres. ever.


The GOP should be made to pay an even bigger price than what it will 'cost' from the so-called Freedom Party operating under

the GOP banner. With maybe a few million behind them, they may succeed in dividing the GOP but I doubt it.

However, what has also happened in addition to the house route in 11/18, is that starting from when trump was nominated summer of '16,

26,000 women alone have registered to run for office and all democrats (some were elected this year) and that movement continues

If this grows and bears fruit, it is possible that from 2020 on, the country may well never see any republican majority at the national level ever again.

There is no big mystery that Trump was "morally challenged." The reason it didnt matter is because of the conclusion of the GOP that ANY candidate nominated will be attacked along such lines (such as Romney in 2012). So why worry about it?

Both parties are undergoing change- both lost long standing supporters in '16 and '18. Whether that is permanent, ongoing change or just a temporary blip I guess we will see. Trump is certainly thinking it is permanent and it would be foolish to think the Dem leadership is not hoping it is as well.