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When I watch my usual several hours of cable news on sources like MSNBC and CNN, a favorite topic is the asking of a question.....
it goes something like this: what will it take for the GOP leaders in Congress to finally put their foot down and say they have broken with Trump?
Other versions speculate on just what outrageous thing Trump would have to do to finally irritate McConnell and company so much that they throw in the towel on the guy.
I have the answer: there is nothing Trump can do that will cause them to break publicly with him. Nothing.
Imagine if you will that the prostitution urination tape is real and it eventually comes out. What we would hear is that this happened before Trump was President and while it is disgusting - it is not relevant to his presidency or his policies.
Imagine that the Mueller report clearly and conclusively demonstrates a long financial history between Trump and Russians and provides a mountain of material that Russia regarding Trump as an asset and that is why they supported him and colluded with his campaign. What we would hear is that the crime is the Russians and some who were in his campaign and not on Trump himself and is thus irrelevant.
The worst thing imaginable that are now on the horizon would fail to cause the GOP in congress to desert him. There is no possible scenario that would result in 34 or more GOP Senators to vote to convict Trump in an impeachment trial no matter what Trump did or what the mountain of evidence against him says. They simply will not do it.
And here is the reason why.
What the GOP leaders fear most of all is NOT Trump tanking in the pubic approval ratings and losing an epic landslide in 2020. Even if they could be convinced that is what will happen and not only Trump but many of them will be shown the door by the American people, it would not change them or their behavior.
What they fear is turning on Trump before the election would force tens of millions of Trump supporters to forge a serious breach in the Republican Party which would result in a split much like the party saw in 1912 where the party split in two and then lost. What they fear is that such a split could destroy the party as they know it and means more to them than anything else in their view.
In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt split the party when they would not give him their nomination. He campaigned on a third party and actually won some states but both he and the GOP nominee Taft lost. The Democrat Wilson won.
The Republican Party was spared the schism that beset the Whigs in the 1850's when TR showed little lasting enthusiasm for building a viable third party and went his separate way. The Republicans magically dodged a bullet and survived intact despite the disastrous 1912 election.
But Trump is not the statesman TR was and everybody knows it. And Trump - who has bounced between the parties and owes nothing to the Republican establishment - just might be a vengeful SOB who wants his revenge if he blames the party regulars for turning on him. And that is what the GOP is afraid of and why they continue to support him and will continue to support him. They do not want to try and dodge any bullets in the near future.
Keep in mind that in 1964 the Republicans went with Barry Goldwater and were demolished from coast to coast. The same thing happened to the Democrats in 1972 with George McGovern. Both amazingly, the party center held and the GOP won four years later in 68 with Nixon and the Dems won four years after their disaster with Carter in 76. The party held together and regrouped and out of the ashes rose a phoenix of sorts.
That is what occupies the thinking of the GOP leaders.
it goes something like this: what will it take for the GOP leaders in Congress to finally put their foot down and say they have broken with Trump?
Other versions speculate on just what outrageous thing Trump would have to do to finally irritate McConnell and company so much that they throw in the towel on the guy.
I have the answer: there is nothing Trump can do that will cause them to break publicly with him. Nothing.
Imagine if you will that the prostitution urination tape is real and it eventually comes out. What we would hear is that this happened before Trump was President and while it is disgusting - it is not relevant to his presidency or his policies.
Imagine that the Mueller report clearly and conclusively demonstrates a long financial history between Trump and Russians and provides a mountain of material that Russia regarding Trump as an asset and that is why they supported him and colluded with his campaign. What we would hear is that the crime is the Russians and some who were in his campaign and not on Trump himself and is thus irrelevant.
The worst thing imaginable that are now on the horizon would fail to cause the GOP in congress to desert him. There is no possible scenario that would result in 34 or more GOP Senators to vote to convict Trump in an impeachment trial no matter what Trump did or what the mountain of evidence against him says. They simply will not do it.
And here is the reason why.
What the GOP leaders fear most of all is NOT Trump tanking in the pubic approval ratings and losing an epic landslide in 2020. Even if they could be convinced that is what will happen and not only Trump but many of them will be shown the door by the American people, it would not change them or their behavior.
What they fear is turning on Trump before the election would force tens of millions of Trump supporters to forge a serious breach in the Republican Party which would result in a split much like the party saw in 1912 where the party split in two and then lost. What they fear is that such a split could destroy the party as they know it and means more to them than anything else in their view.
In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt split the party when they would not give him their nomination. He campaigned on a third party and actually won some states but both he and the GOP nominee Taft lost. The Democrat Wilson won.
The Republican Party was spared the schism that beset the Whigs in the 1850's when TR showed little lasting enthusiasm for building a viable third party and went his separate way. The Republicans magically dodged a bullet and survived intact despite the disastrous 1912 election.
But Trump is not the statesman TR was and everybody knows it. And Trump - who has bounced between the parties and owes nothing to the Republican establishment - just might be a vengeful SOB who wants his revenge if he blames the party regulars for turning on him. And that is what the GOP is afraid of and why they continue to support him and will continue to support him. They do not want to try and dodge any bullets in the near future.
Keep in mind that in 1964 the Republicans went with Barry Goldwater and were demolished from coast to coast. The same thing happened to the Democrats in 1972 with George McGovern. Both amazingly, the party center held and the GOP won four years later in 68 with Nixon and the Dems won four years after their disaster with Carter in 76. The party held together and regrouped and out of the ashes rose a phoenix of sorts.
That is what occupies the thinking of the GOP leaders.