What is the cost of going to herd immunity?

[independentusa]

Trump has started to say that we do not need a vaccine as the virus will go away once we achieve herd immunity. I know he mangled it, but he was talking about herd immunity. So what is the cost of having herd immunity as our national policy to handle the covid crisis if we do not soon have a vaccine. Well, scientists say we need 70% of the population to have gotten the virus and survived to reach the stage where herd immunity will take place. OUr present population is about 330,000,000 and the present death rate is 2.97%. SO to achieve herd immunity we would need for 231,000,000 of our people to get the covid and survive and achieve high enough level of antibodies to be immune. Some people have been reinfected dude to low level of antibodies. So if 2.97% of the 231 million die from the virus, it means wwe will lose 6,860,700 fro the virus while waiting for herd immunity to take place. Let us say through medical treatments we lower the number of deaths to half of the present death rate it will mean 3,465,600 will die to reach immunity. If the death rate drops to 1% then 2,310,000 will die to reach immunity. One problem not taken into account by my figures is that if like flu, the immunity drops off after a period of time, with flu vaccine it is less than a year, then some of those who have caught the virus and lived dearly in this pandemic may catch it again in the next year and the cycle may start all over again. SO you people that are with trump on the herd immunity idea may want to look at the cost in lives and if it will actually work in the long or short run.

 

[Captain Adverse]

Trump has started to say that we do not need a vaccine as the virus will go away once we achieve herd immunity. I know he mangled it, but he was talking about herd immunity. So what is the cost of having herd immunity as our national policy to handle the covid crisis if we do not soon have a vaccine. Well, scientists say we need 70% of the population to have gotten the virus and survived to reach the stage where herd immunity will take place. OUr present population is about 330,000,000 and the present death rate is 2.97%. SO to achieve herd immunity we would need for 231,000,000 of our people to get the covid and survive and achieve high enough level of antibodies to be immune. Some people have been reinfected dude to low level of antibodies. So if 2.97% of the 231 million die from the virus, it means wwe will lose 6,860,700 fro the virus while waiting for herd immunity to take place. Let us say through medical treatments we lower the number of deaths to half of the present death rate it will mean 3,465,600 will die to reach immunity. If the death rate drops to 1% then 2,310,000 will die to reach immunity. One problem not taken into account by my figures is that if like flu, the immunity drops off after a period of time, with flu vaccine it is less than a year, then some of those who have caught the virus and lived dearly in this pandemic may catch it again in the next year and the cycle may start all over again. SO you people that are with trump on the herd immunity idea may want to look at the cost in lives and if it will actually work in the long or short run.

I'm glad you posted this thread.

I saw this video earlier today but did not want to open a thread with it.

Perhaps it will show the value and success of "herd immunity" practices.



As far back as March 2020:

Perhaps. But we can't stay on lock-down forever...

...It all might have to come down to "herd immunity."

At some point, risk or no risk, we need to get back to as normal as we can achieve under the circumstances.

However, that does not mean we should stop seeking a vaccine, just not pin all our hopes on it's efficacy.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

I'm glad you posted this thread.

I saw this video earlier today but did not want to open a thread with it.

Perhaps it will show the value and success of "herd immunity" practices.



As far back as March 2020:



However, that does not mean we should stop seeking a vaccine, just not pin all our hopes on it's efficacy.

You and yours first.

But of course you don’t expect that. You expect others to die for your garbage economy.

 

[CaughtInThe]

don't use math on them. they're not good with math.

 

[independentusa]

I'm glad you posted this thread.

I saw this video earlier today but did not want to open a thread with it.

Perhaps it will show the value and success of "herd immunity" practices.



As far back as March 2020:



However, that does not mean we should stop seeking a vaccine, just not pin all our hopes on it's efficacy.

First, this is of course a right wing article and thus hard to believe anything they print or say. And secondly, it does not say anything I have written in my OP is wrong and that will take between 2 and almost 7 million American lives to achieve this immunity and that is if the immunity last more than a year. IF it only last 6-9 months as the flu vaccine does, we will go through the cycle again and again. The only way to slow this virus is to wear masks and socially distance and do that until a vaccine is available. And this is not like the flu, everything I have read is that it takes two doses of the vaccines and they have to be taken weeks apart for people to gain the amount of antibodies needed to stop the virus.

 

[Moderate Right]

Trump has started to say that we do not need a vaccine as the virus will go away once we achieve herd immunity. I know he mangled it, but he was talking about herd immunity. So what is the cost of having herd immunity as our national policy to handle the covid crisis if we do not soon have a vaccine. Well, scientists say we need 70% of the population to have gotten the virus and survived to reach the stage where herd immunity will take place. OUr present population is about 330,000,000 and the present death rate is 2.97%. SO to achieve herd immunity we would need for 231,000,000 of our people to get the covid and survive and achieve high enough level of antibodies to be immune. Some people have been reinfected dude to low level of antibodies. So if 2.97% of the 231 million die from the virus, it means wwe will lose 6,860,700 fro the virus while waiting for herd immunity to take place. Let us say through medical treatments we lower the number of deaths to half of the present death rate it will mean 3,465,600 will die to reach immunity. If the death rate drops to 1% then 2,310,000 will die to reach immunity. One problem not taken into account by my figures is that if like flu, the immunity drops off after a period of time, with flu vaccine it is less than a year, then some of those who have caught the virus and lived dearly in this pandemic may catch it again in the next year and the cycle may start all over again. SO you people that are with trump on the herd immunity idea may want to look at the cost in lives and if it will actually work in the long or short run.

We already had a 33% drop in GDP and over 11.5% unemployment. What cost is it you want to pay?

 

[Captain Adverse]

First, this is of course a right wing article and thus hard to believe anything they print or say. And secondly, it does not say anything I have written in my OP is wrong and that will take between 2 and almost 7 million American lives to achieve this immunity and that is if the immunity last more than a year. IF it only last 6-9 months as the flu vaccine does, we will go through the cycle again and again. The only way to slow this virus is to wear masks and socially distance and do that until a vaccine is available. And this is not like the flu, everything I have read is that it takes two doses of the vaccines and they have to be taken weeks apart for people to gain the amount of antibodies needed to stop the virus.

Two to Seven million lives? On what basis?

We already KNOW who is most at risk. The death and recovery numbers show it.

Moreover, those at most risk are those who are ALREADY at risk of death from any number of pre-existing co-morbidities provided in annual death statistics.

You can dismiss the facts presented in the video because you don't like the alleged "lean" of the provider, but that doesn't mean the information is wrong. :naughty

IMO herd immunity, combined with a vaccine program will deal with this without much more ado.

I don't know this for sure, but the information available seem to support this IMHO.

If you disagree with the data, provide counter-data to refute it.

 

[independentusa]

Two to Seven million lives? On what basis?

We already KNOW who is most at risk. The death and recovery numbers show it.

Moreover, those at most risk are those who are ALREADY at risk of death from any number of pre-existing co-morbidities provided in annual death statistics.

You can dismiss the facts presented in the video because you don't like the alleged "lean" of the provider, but that doesn't mean the information is wrong. :naughty

IMO herd immunity, combined with a vaccine program will deal with this without much more ado.

I don't know this for sure, but the information available seem to support this IMHO.

If you disagree with the data, provide counter-data to refute it.

Did you actually read my OP above. It explains where I got my 2-7 million deaths. Of course Trumpsters do not believe in facts or science, so anything written that does not go along exactly with what Trump says they will not believe. It just comes down to numbers and the idea that the covid only effects certain groups is not true if you look at the deaths. Even children are dying and some are getting life long injuries from covid. And the deaths are not the only cost of this disease, many of those who have survived also have life long injuries to their hearts, lungs and even to their blood vessels. We will be paying a price for those problems for years to come. And much of this could have been over if people had just listened to the scientists instead of Trump. Wear masks, socially distance and follow up where there outbreaks and then quarantine and slow the spread. Instead we have a bunch of stupids running around yelling about their freedoms and causing others to catch and die from the virus. I remember an old saying, your freedom ends where mine beings. YOur right to go maskless ends where my right to live begins.

 

[CaughtInThe]

Trump has started to say that we do not need a vaccine as the virus will go away once we achieve herd immunity. I know he mangled it, but he was talking about herd immunity. So what is the cost of having herd immunity as our national policy to handle the covid crisis if we do not soon have a vaccine. Well, scientists say we need 70% of the population to have gotten the virus and survived to reach the stage where herd immunity will take place. OUr present population is about 330,000,000 and the present death rate is 2.97%. SO to achieve herd immunity we would need for 231,000,000 of our people to get the covid and survive and achieve high enough level of antibodies to be immune. Some people have been reinfected dude to low level of antibodies. So if 2.97% of the 231 million die from the virus, it means wwe will lose 6,860,700 fro the virus while waiting for herd immunity to take place. Let us say through medical treatments we lower the number of deaths to half of the present death rate it will mean 3,465,600 will die to reach immunity. If the death rate drops to 1% then 2,310,000 will die to reach immunity. One problem not taken into account by my figures is that if like flu, the immunity drops off after a period of time, with flu vaccine it is less than a year, then some of those who have caught the virus and lived dearly in this pandemic may catch it again in the next year and the cycle may start all over again. SO you people that are with trump on the herd immunity idea may want to look at the cost in lives and if it will actually work in the long or short run.

I've tried to explain the math to a number of people here. They're just not good at math.

 

[mike2810]

Trump has started to say that we do not need a vaccine as the virus will go away once we achieve herd immunity. I know he mangled it, but he was talking about herd immunity. So what is the cost of having herd immunity as our national policy to handle the covid crisis if we do not soon have a vaccine. Well, scientists say we need 70% of the population to have gotten the virus and survived to reach the stage where herd immunity will take place. OUr present population is about 330,000,000 and the present death rate is 2.97%. SO to achieve herd immunity we would need for 231,000,000 of our people to get the covid and survive and achieve high enough level of antibodies to be immune. Some people have been reinfected dude to low level of antibodies. So if 2.97% of the 231 million die from the virus, it means wwe will lose 6,860,700 fro the virus while waiting for herd immunity to take place. Let us say through medical treatments we lower the number of deaths to half of the present death rate it will mean 3,465,600 will die to reach immunity. If the death rate drops to 1% then 2,310,000 will die to reach immunity. One problem not taken into account by my figures is that if like flu, the immunity drops off after a period of time, with flu vaccine it is less than a year, then some of those who have caught the virus and lived dearly in this pandemic may catch it again in the next year and the cycle may start all over again. SO you people that are with trump on the herd immunity idea may want to look at the cost in lives and if it will actually work in the long or short run.

Didn't President Trump say the " virus will go away once we achieve herd mentality." :mrgreen:

 

[Torus34]

"Herd immunity", like many phrases, has been spun so much that it is losing meaning.

We would be able to think about pandemic control with greater clarity if we think in terms of a number defined as Rsub0 -- R sub zero. It can have values from zero up to triple digits and beyond. It's the average number of people in the general population who will be infected by an individual with the disease. If the number's less than 1.0, the disease will slowly die out. If it's over 1.0 it will spread and increase the number of people with the disease.

We can get a rough idea as to where we are as a nation by looking at the trend in the daily new cases reported. If it's a decreasing number, the disease is dying out. Even without a vaccine, if enough of us take the advice for personal safety to heart and practice it faithfully, the disease can be reduced to a very minor problem. A safe and efficacious vaccine will hasten the process, but is not an absolute necessity. Strict control measures applied to Ebola, for example, have kept it from becoming a pandemic, though there is no vaccine for it.

The number of newly-reported cases in the US per day has been getting lower for about a month. We have been slowly winning the battle and hopefully, will continue to do so.

'Nuf said.

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember [Ed.: and practice,] the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

 

[Captain Adverse]

Did you actually read my OP above. It explains where I got my 2-7 million deaths. Of course Trumpsters do not believe in facts or science, so anything written that does not go along exactly with what Trump says they will not believe....Instead we have a bunch of stupids running around yelling about their freedoms and causing others to catch and die from the virus.

This is the problem with so many (not all, but MANY) with your mind-set. You have to go to emotional appeals, and ad hominem attacks; labeling, denigrating, etc. as if you think this is a winning (or even a reasoned) form of response.

As far as I am concerned, once someone does this, they've as much as admitted they've lost the argument and are using any tactic to "score virtue points" with like-minded others.

Tagline time. :coffeepap:

 

[Lursa]

It may not be a matter of choice anymore.


OTOH, it could even make things worse.

By allowing a microbe to circulate freely and unrestricted through a population, by definition that means millions more replications of the microbe, and millions more opportunities for virulent mutations to occur. (It works less frequently in the opposite direction because with unrestricted feeding, a microbe can afford to kill quickly). So sitting back and letting it 'run its course' also opens the door to a more dangerous form of the virus.

This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa