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What happens if Kanye West polls 30% of blacks.

What if Kanye West polls 30 of the black vote?

  • Won't matter. Biden wins in a walk.

    Votes: 4 19.0%
  • The race gets close

    Votes: 1 4.8%
  • It tips the race to Trump

    Votes: 2 9.5%
  • Trumps's win increases to a landslide

    Votes: 7 33.3%
  • Purple Gorillas win

    Votes: 7 33.3%

  • Total voters
    21

Jay59

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Kanye is officially running for President. It's doubtful he will top 10% of the vote, but he makes a viable protest vote for a central Democratic demographic. In 2008, Obama won the black vote 95-4. In 2012 it was 93-6. Clinton did not do as well, winning only 89-8. With roughly 30-35 million votes case, these represent net votes of over 25 million votes in all three elections. What happens if Kanye West attracts 8-10 million of those votes?
 

j brown's body

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His candidacy shows how little the GOP knows about the Black vote.

He's liable to draw the whacko vote away ftom Trump.
 

Xilnik

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His candidacy shows how little the GOP knows about the Black vote.

He's liable to draw the whacko vote away ftom Trump.

Your post sums up my thoughts too, minus the language. I think most who will vote for Kanye would have otherwise voted for Trump. That is more likely to hurt Trump.
 

JasperL

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Kanye is officially running for President. It's doubtful he will top 10% of the vote, but he makes a viable protest vote for a central Democratic demographic. In 2008, Obama won the black vote 95-4. In 2012 it was 93-6. Clinton did not do as well, winning only 89-8. With roughly 30-35 million votes case, these represent net votes of over 25 million votes in all three elections. What happens if Kanye West attracts 8-10 million of those votes?

What happens if I grow wings overnight? Will I be able to fly? :confused:
 

Jay59

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Your post sums up my thoughts too, minus the language. I think most who will vote for Kanye would have otherwise voted for Trump. That is more likely to hurt Trump.
It really cannot hurt Trump, unless he was going to poll more than 15% of the black vote without KW's presence.

What happens if I grow wings overnight? Will I be able to fly? :confused:
That's not plausible. Kanye West getting 30% of the black vote is plausible.
 

JasperL

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His candidacy shows how little the GOP knows about the Black vote.

He's liable to draw the whacko vote away ftom Trump.

Yes it does, and it's insulting.

Hey, let's run Larry the Cable Guy. What would happen if 30% of whites in the south voted for him instead of Trump? Southerners are a bunch of inbred morons, so it's likely maybe a third would vote for their favorite comedian!

This ranks right up there on the stupid scale with the argument we see about every day on DP - the Democrat party are the REAL racists!! Which means that 90% of blacks or so are too stupid to figure it out! The blacks should VOTE FOR REPUBLICANS!!
 

JasperL

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It really cannot hurt Trump, unless he was going to poll more than 15% of the black vote without KW's presence.

That's not plausible. Kanye West getting 30% of the black vote is plausible.

You want to bet a month of posting privileges on it? I have a lot more faith in black voters than to assume they're idiots who'd vote for a literally mentally ill rapper, who would be an obvious disaster as President, totally unfit in every possible way for the job, just because he's black. They are not idiots, and you're assuming they are, with the political intelligence of the average MAGA.

I kind of hope this kind of talk takes off, though. It's frankly offensive to believe it, but if the GOP wants to make this argument, do it. Every day I hope. Alternate that with the "Democrats are the REAL racists" ads! Should work great. Nothing like insulting the intelligence of a demographic to run them out of the GOP.
 
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j brown's body

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It really cannot hurt Trump, unless he was going to poll more than 15% of the black vote without KW's presence.


That's not plausible. Kanye West getting 30% of the black vote is plausible.

Republicans Fear Kanye West’s Presidential Run Will Hurt Donald Trump | The Latest Hip-Hop News, Music and Media - Power 103.5

“seven GOP sources told The Daily Beast they’re concerned the stunt could hurt the president one way or another.”

“[It] could siphon from Trump Blacks who don’t like Biden,” said John McLaughlin, a top Trump pollster. “Blacks who don’t like Biden in a two-way race would vote for the president. Now they might consider Kanye.”
 

Cardinal

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Kanye is officially running for President. It's doubtful he will top 10% of the vote, but he makes a viable protest vote for a central Democratic demographic. In 2008, Obama won the black vote 95-4. In 2012 it was 93-6. Clinton did not do as well, winning only 89-8. With roughly 30-35 million votes case, these represent net votes of over 25 million votes in all three elections. What happens if Kanye West attracts 8-10 million of those votes?

We're running a white guy. Unless I'm mistaken (and I'm not), you're white. So, you gonna vote for Biden then?
 
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Puigb

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His candidacy shows how little the GOP knows about the Black vote.

He's liable to draw the whacko vote away ftom Trump.

The fact that the GOP is trying to get Kanye to run as a third party candidate to siphon black voters from Biden speaks volumes to how worthless and out of touch they are with black Americans, and hell basically everyone outside of their wealthy donors. But then again, what else do you expect from a group of idiots who claim MLK would be a Trump supporter if he were alive today?

CNN did a poll some years ago that showed Kanye was more popular with White Republicans than black voters. Mind you, that white Republicans HATED Kanye when he called Bush a racist back in 2005...and now he's suddenly one of the few black people they pretend to like.
 

jotathought

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Kanye is officially running for President. It's doubtful he will top 10% of the vote, but he makes a viable protest vote for a central Democratic demographic. In 2008, Obama won the black vote 95-4. In 2012 it was 93-6. Clinton did not do as well, winning only 89-8. With roughly 30-35 million votes case, these represent net votes of over 25 million votes in all three elections. What happens if Kanye West attracts 8-10 million of those votes?

It demonstrates that blacks realize just because they are black doesn't mean they vote Democrat. Just like Joe said, "You ain't black if you don't vote for me."
 

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Anyone that wants to run for president that is eligible should run.

Let's stop with this 3rd party discrimination. We are more than a 2-party system.
 

Peter King

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Kanye is officially running for President. It's doubtful he will top 10% of the vote, but he makes a viable protest vote for a central Democratic demographic. In 2008, Obama won the black vote 95-4. In 2012 it was 93-6. Clinton did not do as well, winning only 89-8. With roughly 30-35 million votes case, these represent net votes of over 25 million votes in all three elections. What happens if Kanye West attracts 8-10 million of those votes?

Aha, the Donald Trump wet dream scenario :lamo

Now let us go back to the reality zone. Most African Americans (on the main body of the US) live in DC, now Democrats on average win there with more than 85% of the votes. Even Hill got 93% and Trump 4%. Now let us think, 25% of all African Americans in DC would vote Ye (not going to happen but let's just imagine), well than Biden would only get 68% of the votes, Ye would get 25% of the vote and Trump 4%. Meaning Biden wins the 3 electoral college votes, nothing changed there.

Now let us look at the 3 next largest African Americans percentage share states, Mississippi (Biden zero chance so Ye could get all Biden votes and the result would still be the same), Louisiana (Biden zero chance), Georgia (long shot, not really likely), so Ye could get all the votes there from African Americans and it would not change a single electoral college seat.

Then Maryland (30% African Americans), now let us again say Ye wins 50% of these votes, normally democrats always get 60% or higher in the last few elections, now say Biden without Ye would win 63% of the vote, now he looses 15% so he is left with 48%. The election result would then be Biden 48%, Trump 35% (no reason to think he is going to do better than last time) and Ye 15% of the vote. End result is that Biden would win that state.

The only place I think Kanye could influence the vote is North Carolina, the only battleground state with more than 20% African American vote, there he could influence it. And Florida maybe. But in most other battleground states: Pennsylvania (less than 11%), Arizona (about 4%), Ohio (12%) the level of African Americans is not that large to have that much of an effect on the vote.

In most states the votes from suburban women who first sided with Trump will be enough to off set the young black vote loss to Kanye (if he is on a ballot in that state to begin with) and also, do you think a 55 year old black lady who goes to church every Sunday will go and vote Kanye? Not likely.
 

Peter King

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According to who?

I doubt that more than 10% of the Black vote is young enough to be a Kanye listener. I do not see most elderly African American Biden supporters switch sides to go vote Kanye unless hell would freeze over.
 

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It really cannot hurt Trump, unless he was going to poll more than 15% of the black vote without KW's presence.


That's not plausible. Kanye West getting 30% of the black vote is plausible.

"Plausible" based on what? Show your work.
 

Jay59

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We're running a white guy. Unless I'm mistaken (and I'm not), you're white. So, you gonna vote for Biden then?
Trump has proven competent. That's good enough for me.

The fact that the GOP is trying to get Kanye to run as a third party candidate to siphon black voters from Biden
They aren't. Kanye is the instigator.

speaks volumes to how worthless and out of touch they are with black Americans, and hell basically everyone outside of their wealthy donors.
This speaks volumes for how much you assume without checking the facts.

But then again, what else do you expect from a group of idiots who claim MLK would be a Trump supporter if he were alive today?
I don't know about that, but he would have unkind things to say about BLM. He said them about Malcolm X in the day.

CNN did a poll some years ago that showed Kanye was more popular with White Republicans than black voters. Mind you, that white Republicans HATED Kanye when he called Bush a racist back in 2005...and now he's suddenly one of the few black people they pretend to like.
Again, you assume what you do not know. Republicans don't need to pretend to like KW. They have things in common.
 

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Trump has proven competent. That's good enough for me.


They aren't. Kanye is the instigator.


This speaks volumes for how much you assume without checking the facts.


I don't know about that, but he would have unkind things to say about BLM. He said them about Malcolm X in the day.


Again, you assume what you do not know. Republicans don't need to pretend to like KW. They have things in common.

I actually hope Kanye runs this year...because he will siphon of voters from the candidate you don't think it will.
 

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Republican wet dream.
 

roguenuke

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Combine this stunt with JoJo, the Libertarian candidate, and Trump is bleeding voters far more than Biden to either.

Both Kanye and JoJo come closer to matching Trumps political lean than Bidens, far closer. So the majority of their votes are most likely to come from disgruntled Republicans who want the policies without Trump or those who vote 3rd Party normally or out of protest.

The only person who thought about running publicly who also could have hurt Biden more than Trump was The Rock.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk
 

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Trump has proven competent. That's good enough for me.

They aren't. Kanye is the instigator.

This speaks volumes for how much you assume without checking the facts.

I don't know about that, but he would have unkind things to say about BLM. He said them about Malcolm X in the day.

Again, you assume what you do not know. Republicans don't need to pretend to like KW. They have things in common.

Is it the bipolar disorder, unmedicated of course by Kanye, or the aggressive ignorance that Republicans have in common with Kanye? Their worship of celebrity?
 

Jay59

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Is it the bipolar disorder, unmedicated of course by Kanye, or the aggressive ignorance that Republicans have in common with Kanye? Their worship of celebrity?
They have the wellbeing of the black community in common.

Republicans brought jobs, investment money, criminal justice reform. These are tools that help build a safe and prosperous community. Democrats brought BLM and crime.
 

JasperL

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They have the wellbeing of the black community in common.

Republicans brought jobs, investment money, criminal justice reform. These are tools that help build a safe and prosperous community. Democrats brought BLM and crime.

Yes, and it is a shame that about 90% of blacks are apparently too stupid in your view to see this deep concern by the GOP for their well being. Like I said and you ignored:

"You want to bet a month of posting privileges on [Kanye getting 30% of the black vote]? I have a lot more faith in black voters than to assume they're idiots who'd vote for a literally mentally ill rapper, who would be an obvious disaster as President, totally unfit in every possible way for the job, just because he's black. They are not idiots, and you're assuming they are, with the political intelligence of the average MAGA.

I kind of hope this kind of talk takes off, though. It's frankly offensive to believe it, but if the GOP wants to make this argument, do it. Every day I hope. Alternate that with the "Democrats are the REAL racists" ads! Should work great. Nothing like insulting the intelligence of a demographic to run them out of the GOP."
 

Jay59

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Yes, and it is a shame that about 90% of blacks are apparently too stupid in your view to see this deep concern by the GOP for their well being.
That's not saying anything new. Trump is polling over 30% among blacks in the surveys which break it down that way. Since Democrat and independants total less than 20%, that means Trump gets favorable ratings with black Democrats

Like I said and you ignored: "You want to bet a month of posting privileges on [Kanye getting 30% of the black vote]?
I gave it the reaction it deserved.

I have a lot more faith in black voters than to assume they're idiots who'd vote for a literally mentally ill rapper, who would be an obvious disaster as President, totally unfit in every possible way for the job, just because he's black. They are not idiots, and you're assuming they are, with the political intelligence of the average MAGA.
Kanye is literally more qualified to be President than Joe Biden. While he made a name as a rapper, he is a successful businessman and a philanthropist. Your slur of him as mentally ill is telling. You think that he is not capable of thinking for himself, which is a racist attitude.

I kind of hope this kind of talk takes off, though. It's frankly offensive to believe it, but if the GOP wants to make this argument, do it. Every day I hope. Alternate that with the "Democrats are the REAL racists" ads! Should work great. Nothing like insulting the intelligence of a demographic to run them out of the GOP."
The Democrats have not been the racist in this conversation. That was you.
 

JasperL

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That's not saying anything new. Trump is polling over 30% among blacks in the surveys which break it down that way. Since Democrat and independants total less than 20%, that means Trump gets favorable ratings with black Democrats

LOL. He's not getting 30% of the black vote in November

I gave it the reaction it deserved.

Fair enough - you know the odds are zero.

Kanye is literally more qualified to be President than Joe Biden. While he made a name as a rapper, he is a successful businessman and a philanthropist. Your slur of him as mentally ill is telling. You think that he is not capable of thinking for himself, which is a racist attitude.

He is literally mentally ill. He is bipolar and it's untreated. It's not a secret. His wife speaks about it.

Kim Kardashian West’s Vogue Cover: The Star on Becoming a Lawyer, Kanye West & Motherhood | Vogue

Read this if you want to understand him a little better. I liked this part:

Kanye West Says He’s Done With Trump—Opens Up About White House Bid, Damaging Biden And Everything In Between

ON THE WAKANDA MANAGEMENT MODEL
“A lot of Africans do not like the movie [Black Panther] and representation of themselves in…Wakanda. But I’m gonna use the framework of Wakanda right now because it’s the best explanation of what our design group is going to feel like in the White House…That is a positive idea: you got Kanye West, one of the most powerful humans—I’m not saying the most because you got a lot of alien-level superpowers and it’s only collectively that we can set it free. Let’s get back to Wakanda . . . like in the movie in Wakanda when the king went to visit that lead scientist to have the shoes wrap around her shoes. Just the amount of innovation that can happen, the amount of innovation in medicine—like big pharma—we are going to work, innovate, together. This is not going to be some Nipsey Hussle being murdered, they’re doing a documentary, we have so many soldiers that die for our freedom, our freedom of information, that there is a cure for AIDS out there, there is going to be a mix of big pharma and holistic.”

I don't want to laugh because the man is sick, but the idea he's qualified to be President is absurd. It's not a joke to elect someone to be POTUS and you're treating it as one. Black voters will not do so. You're confusing them with MAGAs.
 
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